OFGEM Report "Project Discovery" Funding the next 10 years

[desperate]

Ken
Yep I know that having large users on interuptable supply contracts is an extreme balancing act, mind you they get a substantial discount in return, but the point is, while your shed is an excellent example of what can be achieved, by a motivated expert most people wouldn't dream of doing similar, or are able, and further to that, much as I love em, I couldn't imagine 20,000,000 listers bashing away all over the country, the vibes would cause a new tectonic pattern

I do agree that to diversify the fuel mix is the way to go globally we in britain are somewhat short of wood, Do you remember a documentary about the Drax power station about a year ago ish they showed a pile of timber large enough to have snow on top, the produce of 2000 Acres plus a huge amount of clearance timber, I nearly choked when the site manager stated that at full tilt they could use the lot in less than 5 hours.

The problem is, as you say, in the next 20 years we will have another 5 million houses turning on the heating.

I also am with you on wood use, we have cut our gas consumption by at least 80% but it aint gonna happen countrywide.

Desperate

[brackwell]

Whilst i totally agree with everything said about the supply side i feel that not enough weight is given to the potential to reduce the demand side and in this the government is trying to get some movement.   Like directors and shareholders taking the easy way /profitable way out then individuals do the same.
When kicked in the pocket they will change otherwise they are just not interested. Doubling the price of energy or the lights going out will bring out the Dunkirk spirit and make the necessary changes.   The factories that are having power cuts will have already put in place improvements.

Thinking men and women can see the problem coming but procrastination rules and like everything in life there will be the usual last minute panic by the non prepared masses who in the meantime will keep buying lottery tickets and wasting money on other things.

When things get bad enough the Nimbies will be told to shut up.

Ken

[KenB]

Desperate,

Fortunately, wood is not for everyone. Just as well, as there is not enough to go around.

I am lucky as I live in a 110 year old property with fireplaces in every room and sufficient back yard to accommodate my big boys toys.

I look at it as my own personal insurance policy.  Whatever the stupid people in charge come up with - I have a Plan B.

Glad to hear that you are 80% wood fuelled - I hope it won't catch on. ;-)



Ken

[KenB]

Desperate,

The problem is, as you say, in the next 20 years we will have another 5 million houses turning on the heating.

It's only 6 years and its the equivalent of 5 million houses turning on the heating.  That's a 25% increase on the gas demand.

We'll fondly look back to these days when gas was about 3p a unit.

As oil supplies get tighter in the next 10 to 20 years, gas will start to take up some of the slack previously occupied by petroleum. Every country on the planet will be trying to secure its gas supply.  Market forces will increase the price of gas accordingly. 

It's an easy modification for petrol and diesel vehicles to make them run on compressed natural gas.  Add the UK vehicle fleet to the natural gas consumption bill  Our current transport fuel bill is 55 million tonnes of oil equivalent Mtoe - that's another 32 million households worth of natural  gas consumption.

"You cannot live on but bread alone"    - the same can be said for natural gas.

We will be going to war over gas, just as WW2 was about access to petroleum rich territories,  the next one will be about natural gas.

As the world turns to natural gas for post petroleum salvation, the UK will be a tiny backwater island, with a defunct currency and a deeply divided, dysfunctional population.

Let's revisit this in 2020 and see how we are faring as an island nation.



Ken

[desperate]

Ken
I am not argueing that we should be relying on gas anymore than we are already, but given the limited choices we have and the opposition to most other forms of energy production it isn't surprising.

The super pylon route is causing enough outrage on its own at the moment, but without it the huge wind potential in scotland makes no sense, but sooner or later as you say we are going to really need it.

The same position will no doubt occur when we finally get round to solar farming in desert areas, we are going to have to build a vast DC network to distribute power across Europe, but it will happen eventually, the potential is collossal in scale, vastly bigger than any other renewable, can we really resist it? Tidal flows and changes are another huge resource that we could adopt given time to develope the sites.

These three technologys in my opinion are between them easily capable of supplying all the power we need on a global basis, but it is going to take a long time to convince people that we really do need the infrastructure that goes with it.  In the meantime it is gas, nuclear, or clean coal

Desperate

[Twenty4Seven]

Glad to hear that you are 80% wood fuelled - I hope it won't catch on. ;-)

Unfortunately it is doing. We had a Pioneer Clearview 400 fitted last year. In a time when most businesses were being hammered by the recession, the firm that fitted ours had never been busier....... When the crunch comes, even tree surgeon's waste chippings will be worth money. What's Plan C ??

Nick

[renewablejohn]

Twenty4seven

Already paying good money for arb waste to turn it into torrified wood pellets.

Plan C Grow your own.

[KenB]

In the meantime it is gas, nuclear, or clean coal

Desperate, I thing two of those options have already been dismissed.


Ken

[wookey]

Ken, you are too pessimistic. For a start the new 5 million houses are being built to inreasingly stringent standards. All current housaing association housing is code3 and by 2013 all private housesa have to be code3 too. By 2016 HA housing has to be code6 - that means 'zero carbon'. The definition is still being dickered over but the point is that that new houses are actually going to be built to a reasonable standard, and usually with some micro-generation too. So 5 million more houses is nothing like an extra 25% increase in gas demand. RHI will encourage less carbon intensive heating methods and the house designs will dramatically reduce the load anyway.

The baseload concept dopesn't really mean anything: companies just buy the cheapest energy available and that's always wind. Ken seemed to suggest that CCGT was cheaper but it's not. Wind is much cheaper due to lack of fuel costs and all the wind available gets bought before gas CCGT generation. Gas replacing coal which is being retired is just fine. It's much quicker to start up and its carbon output is _much_ lower than coal stations.

Large amounts of offshore wind are being built at the moment - similar amount to the CCGT Ken talks about. 20GW between germany and the UK. 600MW last year alone. See http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2010/1/18/74048/4341 for some details. I've just failed to find a doc detailing what fraction of that 20GW is UK, but lets say 10GW. That compares pretty well with the 15GW of CCGT Ken is so horrified by.

And as has been mentioned. Far too much attention is being paid to facilitating continued wasteful energy use: reducing use dramatically also makes sense. We've done some with the recession - there is plenty more fat to terim.

[brackwell]

I entirely agree with Wookey.

One old Victorian 100yr house consumes many times more energy than houses built in say the last40yrs and then compare this again with the latest builds!   My daughter lives in a modern build med size appartment and has NEVER had the heating on and it is warmer than my house.
Ken
 

[KenB]

Wookey,

You have misunderstood what I was saying.

When we remove 15GW of coal fired power plant from the mix - because of the 2015 Large Combustion Plant directive, and replace it with 15GW of CCGT - then the gas consumption for those new plants will be the equivalent of 5 million houses central heating bills put together.

The UK has a certain primary energy demand, which consists of petroleum, natural gas, coal and uranium.  If you start wiping out the coal consumption of 15GW of coal plant, it naturally has to be replaced with some other primary energy source.  We fundamentally change the mix, and we make ourselves a lot more reliant on natural gas.

Whatever we achieve with renewables over the next 5 to 10 years will be a bonus - but we are in the height of a recession, our  banking industry is log-jammed, and the hope of real and lasting investment in renewables - which are still considered "risky", is unlikely.

As for new housing stock - have you seen the junk that has been thrown up in the last 5 years. Don't expect the construction industry to embrace the new directives overnight.



Ken

[KenB]

May I recommend DUKES digest of UK energy statistics

http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/dukes/dukes.aspx

In 2008, the percentage of fuel used in the UK generating mix - gas exceeded coal for the first time at 40%. 

By 2020 the percentage of UK generation dependent directly on natural gas will have risen to close to 70%.  This is not good for energy security.



Ken

[EccentricAnomaly]

We will be going to war over gas, ...

Oh, I thought we already are at war over gas.

[Paulh_Boats]

We cut our gas consumption by 40% in one weekend. Grade G boiler out and Grade A boiler in.

Efficiency went from 65% to 91% average.  The boiler is turned down so that the return temp is 38C which gives about 95% efficiency.
http://www.emeraldenergy.ie/info/boiler-efficiency.htm


There must be millions of older boilers out there in poorly insulated homes - I think they could easily save 50% gas with a new boiler and better insulation.


Our house was built in 1985 (think how many millions were built before that). With the new boiler, cavity wall and improved loft insulation I'm sure we are using 60% less gas for heating today than in 1985.

-Paul

[desperate]

Ken said

Desperate, I thing two of those options have already been dismissed


Exactly, they couldn't get anything else passed PP/nimbys, so the last option was...................gas

Ken also said

As for new housing stock - have you seen the junk that has been thrown up in the last 5 years. Don't expect the construction industry to embrace the new directives overnight.

Have you been on any newbuild sites lately? they may well be junk, but they are well insulated junk.

Desp