FIT's payment - guaranteed... how, exactly?

[qeipl]

Hands up how many of us would install PV if there were no FITs 

I've been thinking about it.
A 4kWp FiT set-up would currently cost me about £12k via an MCS installer.
A non-FiT DIY installation would be around half that.

My house is all electric and I use c.6000kWh/year.
I already have a wee hydro that contributes about 2000kWh/year, running at c.700W.
When the cheap Chinese turbine expires I'll upgrade this to 1kW, which should give me an annual output of c.3000kWh
4kWp would produce c.2700kWh/year.
This would almost match my generation to my consumption.

The price of energy is going to increase every year.
Interest on savings will almost certainly stay low and is unlikely to increase as fast as energy prices.
It almost makes sense now to spend £6k of my savings to invest in PV but I'm holding off for a while because the price of panels is still falling, and I suspect it will drop significantly l when the FiT bonanza is over.

So, yes, I might install PV without FiTs, but it only makes sense because I can do the work myself.

[StationHouse]

That's what i'm doing... decided to hold off for a year or so to see what happens to the market/FITs/price of panels...

Already been stuffed over RHI with the heat pump  Fortunately the heat pump's economics stand up without RHI when compared to LPG 

My first thoughts were to generate from the river which I'm revisiting, much cheaper to install with more or less the same production all year round.

I could have had solar PV on my roof with my preferred installer in three weeks but with going into winter decided against it...

[M]

FITs are as safe as pensions 

Who knows what the future holds...

25 years is such a long time given the nature of our short term politics...

One thing that is clear to me is that as soon as they start to reduce FITs the domestic solar market will start to die as it is a completely pointless technology for the masses given the huge up front cost for such little return without FITs. 

"Always with the negative waves Moriarty, always with the negative waves."

Come on Station House, really? Run the numbers, look at how much installed prices have come down, and how high energy bills are. Southern Spain is just about hitting grid parity, and PV is still a relatively young industry on these scales. How can it be completely pointless? Are you willing to state that in 5 years time south facing roofs in parts of Britain can't or won't be closing in on parity.

Consider the 'real' prices of cars, tv's, pc's etc over the last 10, 20, 50 or even 100 years (as appropriate). You're looking at a child and missing its potential at maturity.

Chas, sorry to repeat myself, but I still feel you are desperately seeking a possible answer, rather than a probable one. It may be hopelessly optimistic and even naive of me to think that there can't be any 25 year issues with FITs, but I'm going to err on the side of logic and ask why?

The system has in built reductions and additional revisions. It is doing its job, which is to promote new technology and lower the initial price. Promoting green tech is popular and will help to find newer ideas.

Can future governments change past guarantees (not policy, guarantees), yes they can, but there has to be a very desperate reason.

I'm not advocating denial, ignorance or the removal of common sense, but FITs is too small, too successful and just too good to assume a negative approach to its future.

Martyn.

[chasfromnorfolk]

The last two posts before Martyn's make me green - with envy. I'd love a place with water running through it. Well, not exactly through it, but you know what I mean. Scope there to experiment in the true spirit of Machynlleth alternative-ness. Worth getting out the welder for.

And a very interesting train of thought too about non-FIT v FIT installation. I'll price up the components of the 'winning' quote and have a chat with electrician nephew about going it alone. I'm not looking for a better return on capital, I just want to head off hideous future prices from the depths of fuel poverty. I have a feeling, though, that working on the new benchmark £10,500 installation, the "FIT system premium" of say £4,500 over component costs will be a justifiable temptation for a punt.
See, that's what makes it work, Martyn: don't expect payback (in the normal way) of the whole system, look at the return on the additional capital used in treading the FIT path. According to figures already in I should get my £4,500 back by end year 3. All I have to do is join a club I'm not sure I should  - but then I've never been one for principles. Most matters of principle are generally a matter of money, imho.

Chas

[StationHouse]

FITs are as safe as pensions  

Who knows what the future holds...

25 years is such a long time given the nature of our short term politics...

One thing that is clear to me is that as soon as they start to reduce FITs the domestic solar market will start to die as it is a completely pointless technology for the masses given the huge up front cost for such little return without FITs.  

"Always with the negative waves Moriarty, always with the negative waves."

Come on Station House, really? Run the numbers, look at how much installed prices have come down, and how high energy bills are. Southern Spain is just about hitting grid parity, and PV is still a relatively young industry on these scales. How can it be completely pointless? Are you willing to state that in 5 years time south facing roofs in parts of Britain can't or won't be closing in on parity.

Consider the 'real' prices of cars, tv's, pc's etc over the last 10, 20, 50 or even 100 years (as appropriate). You're looking at a child and missing its potential at maturity.

Chas, sorry to repeat myself, but I still feel you are desperately seeking a possible answer, rather than a probable one. It may be hopelessly optimistic and even naive of me to think that there can't be any 25 year issues with FITs, but I'm going to err on the side of logic and ask why?

The system has in built reductions and additional revisions. It is doing its job, which is to promote new technology and lower the initial price. Promoting green tech is popular and will help to find newer ideas.

Can future governments change past guarantees (not policy, guarantees), yes they can, but there has to be a very desperate reason.

I'm not advocating denial, ignorance or the removal of common sense, but FITs is too small, too successful and just too good to assume a negative approach to its future.

Martyn.

As suggested I've been doing the sums and for my circumstances seems like a no brainer so after lenghty discussion with the boss we will proceed with the install :-)

Will keep you all posted...