Klaus,
Does your 3kW per deg C include water heating?
Thanks
Yes, that is all inclusive, daily consumption figures measured for several years. See attached plot. For lower temp differences you'll see more scattering in the data, since both DHW and solar input for DHW make a higher contribution. There's hardly any solar input in winter, so don't worry about that effect here.
But please do note the units: this is 3kWh per day per degree Celsius.
Klaus