Government PV Targets revealed

[Ivan]

I asked our local MP to look into government targets for PV, as the politicians keep harping on about how targets have been exceeded and uptake is far faster than anticipated etc. - so I wanted to see if this was really the case. His assistant was very helpful and delved into the House of Commons library which contains such information and came up with the following response:

 

I have received the following response from the House of Commons Library:

“As far as we are aware there has not been any specific targets set by this or the previous government on generation capacity from Solar.

The original Impact Assessment set a estimated a total generation of by 2020 of 6TWh from Sub 5WM (p18) but did not set out what generation capacity would be needed to meet this.

The Library Note on the Solar PV sets out the spending cap put in place by the Government to 2015, and lays out the estimates for growth in capacity in the consultation that have already been surpassed”.

I hope the information provided is useful. If I can be of any further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact me.

(NB underlined sections refer to external links, but I don't have these as they are parlimentary intranet links.)

[desperate]

It's so reassuring to see that we have already surpassed the limits that were not set     Am I drunk or something?

I wonder if they have more than a few neurons between them??


Desp

[StBarnabas]

Ivan, Desp
I suspect it is the spending cap that has been surpassed rather than any PV target. It sadly has always been the case in the UK that there are few scientists and engineers in parliament - most MPs are sadly barely numerate....
Sean

[GavinA]

the impact assessment for the tariff cuts gives the game away in a majorly alarming way IMO.

It's assuming a 75% reduction in sub 4kW installations and 95% reduction in 4-50kW installations in order to meet the spending targets outlined in the impact assessment.


As these reductions are entirely unrealistic, the danger must be that they just keep cutting the rates until the industry eventually collapses just so some prick of a politician can look tough in front of his mates, and say he's managed to keep the fits budget on target.

Personally I can live with the 50% cut in the rate, what I can't live with is targets like this for cutting the total number of installations as the only way to drive prices down further is via further economies of scale.

BTW, I've managed to get myself in on a round table discussion between BPVA and DECC on Monday afternoon to try to hammer out some sort of compromise agreement. will start a thread on it in a bit with some thoughts I'll be taking down there with me, see what other installers think.

[zeus]

Hi

For clarification, would the "estimated a total generation of by 2020 of 6TWh " be cumulative energy up until 2020, or total annual generation of 6TWh by 2020 ? ..... there seems to be a chasm between reading the different possibilities into the same text ...
 

[GavinA]

Hi

For clarification, would the "estimated a total generation of by 2020 of 6TWh " be cumulative energy up until 2020, or total annual generation of 6TWh by 2020 ? ..... there seems to be a chasm between reading the different possibilities into the same text ...
 

it's a nonsense figure made up by clueless idiots aka consultants, but I believe it would represent the annual output.

[desperate]

Ivan, Desp
I suspect it is the spending cap that has been surpassed rather than any PV target. It sadly has always been the case in the UK that there are few scientists and engineers in parliament - most MPs are sadly barely numerate....
Sean

Sean, yes that is how I understand it also, but they say in the piece Ivan quoted,

"As far as we are aware there has not been any specific targets set by this or the previous government on generation capacity from Solar."

then-:

"The Library Note on the Solar PV sets out the spending cap put in place by the Government to 2015, and lays out the estimates for growth in capacity in the consultation that have already been surpassed”.

Which to me seems to refer to generation capacity in both instances.

But I guess as meaningless panic ridden waffle, it could refer to almost anything really.

Desp

[stannn]

6TWh equates to roughly 20 million PV panels at current performance.
Stan

[billi]

6TWh equates to roughly 20 million PV panels at current performance

   what  so little    not meaning the panels more the TWH

[Ted]

Those figures (8 TWh was the actual total for 2020 as 2 TWh was expected without the introduction of FiTs and 6 TWh contributed by the FiTs incentive) were strictly never 'targets'. They were the likely outcomes from one of the possible FiTs investment scenarios. These are total figures for all technologies - not just PV.

The whole current situation has come about because of the Comprehensive Spending Review carried out last autumn. This is where the £40 million 'saving' to get a 'budget' of £867 million on FiTs in the financial period to 2015 comes from.

2.104 The efficiency of Feed-In Tariffs will be improved at the next formal review, rebalancing them in favour of more cost effective carbon abatement technologies. This will save £40 million in 2014-15.

http://cdn.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sr2010_completereport.pdf

[wookey]

It really is alice-in-wonderland accounting, as that budget is entirely notional, because it's not govt money that is being spent. Do they also set budgets for the numbers/value of houses sold, and jack up/down stamp duty towards the end of the year to make sure the numbers come in correct? Or for the amount of fuel sold, then double/halve the tax rates during the year to make sure garages don't sell too much? No - it would be idiotic.

Monitoring this obviously makes sense, in order to perform the built-in reviews, but having a budget that 'must be met at all costs' is a nonsense.