Hi ovonrein, see that you have started a new thread on this in order to try and understand some more detail.
I made a diagram of the situation and I think you are correct in your analysis, the shaded cell will start to absorb some energy in the event of the MPPT not responding to the changed conditions. In this case 3.16Watts, not too much.
I found a couple of papers which cover the subject in some detail.
The first is
http://www.f09.fh-koeln.de/imperia/md/content/personen/wiesner_wolfgang/veroeffentlichungen/26ieee.pdfand relatively easy to understand but appears to be fairly old.
A more modern paper is
http://www.mpi-halle.mpg.de/mpi/publi/pdf/9077_09.pdfbut is very detailed.
In summary, hot spots can develop within the cell - even emitting some light - and could cause damage. The panel diodes are added to prevent this.