No fracking in home counties, village residents tell oil company

[Richard Owen]

Peak oil is a moving feast.

When oil was below $60/barrel the Manitoba tar sands were uneconomic to exploit and therefore not counted in the world's oil reserves.

As soon as oil went above $60/barrel they became economic to exploit so they got added to the global oil reserve.

Canada went from nowhere to No3 in the world oil reserves list.

Oil wells that were supposed to run out 40 years ago are still pumping because extraction technology has got better.

I read somewhere (Economist?) that so far we've exploited 1/7th of the world's oil and gas. The problem with the other 6/7 is that it's expensive to get at.

[Twenty4Seven]

The key factor is EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested). When it takes the energy equivalent of a barrel of oil to extract and process a barrel of oil, it becomes uneconomic - even if there is a trillion barrels of oil left in the ground. When the first wells were drilled, the oil was under pressure and found its own way to the surface. EROEI could be 100 or more. In contrast, EROEI for tar sands and shales might be measured in single figures. We have already reaped all the low-hanging fruit - we can now look forward to ever more expensive and environmentally messy oil.

http://oilsandstruth.org/understanding-energy-return-on-energy-investment-eroei

[GavinA]

The key factor is EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested). When it takes the energy equivalent of a barrel of oil to extract and process a barrel of oil, it becomes uneconomic

It becomes utterly counterproductive in energy and economic terms well before that point if looking at it on a long term basis.

Something in the region of between 5:1 and 8:1 EROI is a reasonable rule of thumb to differentiate a useful energy source from a chocolate teapot.

If the article you linked to is right, it would seem that Shells tar sands process at 3:! EROI is well into chocolate teapot territory and only really viable as a short term proposition because our entire economy is already based on in internal combustion engine, so the energy costs of building an entire new supply and consumption chain for the alternatives weigh against them and allow the oil price to rise to the level where this is notionally profitable (although many who've looked at this think even this is debatable).

[M]

I'm not sure if this makes sense, as it barely makes sense in my head as I'm thinking / typing - but would another definition of peak oil possibly be when the cost of extracting and refining it exceeds the cost of producing ethanol, bio-diesel, or batteries. Just as renewables are becoming more viable as conventional fuels become more expensive, there has to be a cross-over point when you are offered two litres of fuel and the conventional litre costs more than the 'new' alternative, whatever form it takes?

Mart.

[Twenty4Seven]

I'm not sure if this makes sense, as it barely makes sense in my head as I'm thinking / typing - but would another definition of peak oil possibly be when the cost of extracting and refining it exceeds the cost of producing ethanol, bio-diesel, or batteries.

As I understand it, the term "Peak Oil" refers to the point of maximum production, beyond which, no matter how many wells you drill, or how fast you pump, you can never again produce at a rate greater than the peak. That's not the same thing as economic viability.

[M]

I'm not sure if this makes sense, as it barely makes sense in my head as I'm thinking / typing - but would another definition of peak oil possibly be when the cost of extracting and refining it exceeds the cost of producing ethanol, bio-diesel, or batteries.

As I understand it, the term "Peak Oil" refers to the point of maximum production, beyond which, no matter how many wells you drill, or how fast you pump, you can never again produce at a rate greater than the peak. That's not the same thing as economic viability.

I agree entirely, but I was running with your earlier posting. After all, unless we discover some additional cheap oil (and that's looking unlikely), conventional 'crude' will price itself off the shelves, well before all uneconomic reserves are tapped. There has to be a price point, where it is simply cheaper to move on to something else.

Now, where that price point is, I don't know, and diesel in particular does run our world (ships, trains and trucks), but at some price point ....

Mart.

[Twenty4Seven]

There has to be a price point, where it is simply cheaper to move on to something else.

Now, where that price point is, I don't know, and diesel in particular does run our world (ships, trains and trucks), but at some price point ....

Mart.

... and that's why we're (or will be) in such a jam. Alternative technologies don't magically appear overnight. There is not enough land to grow fuel crops (not even a significant fraction thereof). Hydrogen? it takes energy to produce - it's not a source of energy, merely a form of energy storage (EROEI less than 1). How many cars in the world? How long to convert or replace them (even if there were fuel to power them)? What about food? Fertilizers, pesticides etc are derived from fossil fuels. Farm machinery runs on diesel..... etc etc. If we had started addressing the problem in the 70's we might have stood a chance, but now? Far too late. There be tough times ahead.... interesting, but tough.

[martin]

"Fertilizers, pesticides etc are derived from fossil fuels. Farm machinery runs on diesel....." - yes, it does at the moment, to perpetuate the incredibly crude "bludgeon nature into submission" forms of growing food - there are far better, more productive ways  - sadly we are firmly locked into the highly destructive relationship between Big Ag and governments which does it's best to prevent sane moves towards sustainable production. We desperately need to spend money on developing existing techniques which use far less "inputs" and increase the land's fertility...

[Twenty4Seven]

Yes, we can only support 7 billion people on this planet thanks to industrial agriculture. Once that is no longer tenable....... ?

[martin]

That's a dangerous fallacy put about by "Big Ag" - there are several "low input' techniques which can actually increase yield per acre, but the vested interests in Big Ag do their best to stop such heresies - low inputs mean low profits for them, and the longer we continue, the more the land's natural fertility is stripped, and all the inputs just add to general pollution (not least our waterways and the sea). We can feed everyone on the planet, and if you haven't already seen it, suggest the excellent "Farm for the Future" as "food for thought" to illustrate the directions in which we need to move (and fast!)


<a href="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=2750012006939737230&amp;hl=en&amp;fs" target="_blank">http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=2750012006939737230&amp;hl=en&amp;fs</a>

[renewablejohn]

Twenty4seven

I would disagree with your statement regarding land for fuel. What people get confused with is being an either or society. We do not have to grow either crops for food or crops for energy as most food crops provide both food and energy. The secret to our energy needs is turning that residual waste into high grade usable energy the easiest route being biogas.

[Twenty4Seven]

But doesn't that happen already? The cake remaining when the oil has been extracted from rape seed and soya is used for animal fodder. You can't have your cake and heat it  

[smegal]

Twenty4seven

I would disagree with your statement regarding land for fuel. What people get confused with is being an either or society. We do not have to grow either crops for food or crops for energy as most food crops provide both food and energy. The secret to our energy needs is turning that residual waste into high grade usable energy the easiest route being biogas.

Easier said than done. Straw and other crop residues are awkward to anaerobically digest. The lignocellulose is just too difficult to break down. Research is being carried out into this but more for the bioethanol route than biogas.

Burning crop residues on the other hand... Maybe I just like fire too much.

[M]

But doesn't that happen already? The cake remaining when the oil has been extracted from rape seed and soya is used for animal fodder. You can't have your cake and heat it  

Now that's funny, cheers.

Yeah tough but interesting, that's why I enjoy reading about renewables so much, and this forum. So many new things. I finally understand that Chinese saying, "may you live in interesting times".

Research into bio-ethanol etc, fascinating, so many bugs, to eat so much material. Top of my head, I think e-coli is one of the most popular. The first company to crack this will own Tesco's as a tuck shop in the corner of their canteen!

Mart.