Rare minerals dearth threatens global renewables industry

[martin]

from - http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/27/rare-minerals-global-renewables-industry?intcmp=122

"China's near-exclusive access to terbium and yttrium sent prices soaring in 2011, potentially hobbling clean energy industry

Shortages of a handful of rare minerals could slow the future growth of the burgeoning renewable energy industries, and affect countries' chances of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, business leaders were told at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.

Last year, prices of many scarce minerals exploded, rising as much as 10 times over 2010 levels before dropping back, said PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

Terbium, yttrium, dysprosium, europium and neodymium are widely used in the manufacture of wind turbines, solar panels, electric car batteries and energy-efficient lightbulbs. But because these "rare earths" are mined almost exclusively in China, it is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to source them in the required quantities.

In a survey of some of the largest clean energy manufacturers, 78% told PwC said they were already experiencing instability of supply of rare metals, and most said they did not expect shortages to ease for at least five years. Currently, 95% of the rare earth minerals needed by clean tech industries come from China which has set strict export quotas. Last year China reserved most for its own for its domestic wind, solar and battery industries, shifting costs to the US and Europe which do not mine any of the minerals.

Scarcity of the mineral resources could affect disrupt entire supply chains and countries' attempts to meet emissions targets, said PwC. "The energy sector could face very great problems if the world turns to [renewables] in a big way. In the short term, there will be major supply problems. The availability of these metals will define the growth of these industry sectors. There are so far not many alternatives," said Rob Mathlener, author of a report that urged companies to build future strategies around recycling and reusing resources.

Last December, Janez Potočnik, the EU commissioner for the environment, warned that the waste of valuable natural resources threatens to produce a fresh economic crisis.

None of the minerals is likely to physically run out, but it can take 10 years for countries to open new mines. In the US there has been growing concerns that China dominates the supply of the materials considered crucial for the expansion of the US defence, computer and renewable energy sectors.

A series of US government reports have urged an immediate increase in production of rare minerals. By mid-2012, US mining company Molycorp Minerals aims to produce 20,000 tonnes a year of nine of the 17 rare minerals, or about 25% of current western imports from China.

Malcolm Preston, PwC's global sustainability leader, said: "It's a time bomb. Many businesses now recognise that we are living beyond the planet's means. If these industries, supply chains and economies are disrupted by shortages in supply, then the 'luxury of choice' lifestyle many in the Western world have become accustomed to, will also be affected."

Six other core manufacturing industries, including aerospace, automotive and chemicals, were all found to be experiencing shortages. According to the US Congress report published last September, world demand for rare elements is estimated at 136,000 tonnes per year, with global production around 133,600 tonnes in 2010. It is projected to rise to at least 185,000 tonnes a year by 2015.

[dimengineer]

It is a worry, but as always its not as simple as you might think. Over the last 15 years or so, the Chinese have bought the market - producing and pricing the rare earths to destroy the competition. You can do this if you are a monolithic communist centrally planned economy.
As a result a lot of mines - particularly in the US, closed - but the minerals are still there.

In the long run, those mines will re-open and the system will come back into balance. However, in the short term there is every possibility that the Chinese state will use its near monopoly to give lots of leverage to do what it wants... whatever that might be..

[Philip R]

Martin, this is old news, why are you dredging it up again. What do politicians know ( The only one who do are Chinese, as they are all qualified Engineers!!))

Talking of dredging, the Japanese aware of the Chinese monopoly on rare earths, have found deposits on the Pacific ocean floor, which is generally a tad deep! However, from what they have found, there is plenty of the stuff down there.

Anyway, in the ESI, permanent magnet generators were generally used as the first stage of exciting a turbo generator field ( Not so common now, due to the use of static excitation systems). The material used in the PMG was not rare earth, but a material readily availible in the western world. The consequence of this is that the PMG would be a little bigger than is using rare earths but not a problem to competant machine designer.

So what I say is do not worry, give the Chinese a a reverse Churchill salute. If they do not want to sell rare earths, then we are smart enough to use bigger but lower gauss magnets instead.

PhilipR

[dimengineer]

And Also - I saw this in "The Chemical Engineer" which dropped through my letter box today - A big find in Madagascar


"Tantalus Rare Earths AG is a German incorporated holding company, currently engaged in the exploration and development of a large, rare earths occurrence located in north-western Madagascar.
 Through its wholly owned subsidiary, TRE holds the exploration license to a 300 km2 concession area situated on the Ampasindava Peninsula in north-western Madagascar.
 The company’s rare earths project, the TRE Project, is located on the concession and benefits from a relatively high ratio of the more valuable heavy rare earths at 21% of total rare earth oxides. Results to date also indicate significant levels of tantalum, niobium, zirconium, gallium and smaller quantities of hafnium, tin, silver and base metals.
 



Results have also shown low levels of uranium and thorium content, which is encouraging as it reduces the risk of future environmental problems often associated with rare earths projects.

[Outtasight]

It might also be as well that the Chinese horde the stuff to make wind turbines and electric car batteries for themselves as they are the most populace country on the planet and set to use the most fossil fuels in the next 10 years compared to the rest of us... Also things like lithium batteries actually contain very little lithium and yttrium (a few dozen grammes per 100AH) So it's not like we nedd gazillions of tonnes of the stuff.