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Author Topic: Bill Gates backs climate scientists lobbying for large-scale geoengineering  (Read 569 times)
martin
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« on: February 06, 2012, 10:59:20 AM »

from - http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/06/bill-gates-climate-scientists-geoengineering?intcmp=122

"Other wealthy individuals have also funded a series of reports into the future use of technologies to geoengineer the climate

A small group of leading climate scientists, financially supported by billionaires including Bill Gates, are lobbying governments and international bodies to back experiments into manipulating the climate on a global scale to avoid catastrophic climate change.

The scientists, who advocate geoengineering methods such as spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide 30 miles above earth, argue that a "plan B" for climate change will be needed if the UN and politicians cannot agree to making the necessary cuts in greenhouse gases, and say the US government and others should pay for a major programme of international research.

Solar geoengineering techniques are highly controversial: while some climate scientists believe they may prove a quick and relatively cheap way to slow global warming, others fear that when conducted in the upper atmosphere, they could irrevocably alter rainfall patterns and interfere with the earth's climate.

Geoengineering is opposed by many environmentalists, who say the technology could undermine efforts to reduce emissions, and by developing countries who fear it could be used as a weapon or by rich countries to their advantage. In 2010, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity declared a moratorium on experiments in the sea and space, except for small-scale scientific studies.

Concern is now growing that the small but influential group of scientists, and their backers, may have a disproportionate effect on major decisions about geoengineering research and policy.

"We will need to protect ourselves from vested interests [and] be sure that choices are not influenced by parties who might make significant amounts of money through a choice to modify climate, especially using proprietary intellectual property," said Jane Long, director at large for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the US, in a paper delivered to a recent geoengineering conference on ethics.

"The stakes are very high and scientists are not the best people to deal with the social, ethical or political issues that geoengineering raises," said Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace. "The idea that a self-selected group should have so much influence is bizarre."

Pressure to find a quick technological fix to climate change is growing as politicians fail to reach an agreement to significantly reduce emissions. In 2009-2010, the US government received requests for over $2bn(£1.2bn) of grants for geoengineering research, but spent around $100m.

As well as Gates, other wealthy individuals including Sir Richard Branson, tar sands magnate Murray Edwards and the co-founder of Skype, Niklas Zennström, have funded a series of official reports into future use of the technology. Branson, who has frequently called for geoengineering to combat climate change, helped fund the Royal Society's inquiry into solar radiation management last year through his Carbon War Room charity. It is not known how much he contributed.

Professors David Keith, of Harvard University, and Ken Caldeira of Stanford, are the world's two leading advocates of major research into geoengineering the upper atmosphere to provide earth with a reflective shield. They have so far received over $4.6m from Gates to run the Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research (Ficer). Nearly half Ficer's money, which comes directly from Gates's personal funds, has so far been used for their own research, but the rest is disbursed by them to fund the work of other advocates of large-scale interventions.

According to statements of financial interests, Keith receives an undisclosed sum from Bill Gates each year, and is the president and majority owner of the geoengineering company Carbon Engineering, in which both Gates and Edwards have major stakes – believed to be together worth over $10m.

Another Edwards company, Canadian Natural Resources, has plans to spend $25bn to turn the bitumen-bearing sand found in northern Alberta into barrels of crude oil. Caldeira says he receives $375,000 a year from Gates, holds a carbon capture patent and works for Intellectual Ventures, a private geoegineering research company part-owned by Gates and run by Nathan Myhrvold, former head of technology at Microsoft.

According to the latest Ficer accounts, the two scientists have so far given $300,000 of Gates money to part-fund three prominent reviews and assessments of geoengineering – the UK Royal Society report on Solar Radiation Management, the US Taskforce on Geoengineering and a 2009 report by Novin a science thinktank based in Santa Barbara, California. Keith and Caldeira either sat on the panels that produced the reports or contributed evidence. All three reports strongly recommended more research into solar radiation management.

The fund also gave $600,000 to Phil Rasch, chief climate scientist for the Pacific Northwest national laboratory, one of 10 research institutions funded by the US energy department.

Rasch gave evidence at the first Royal Society report on geoengineering 2009 and was a panel member on the 2011 report. He has testified to the US Congress about the need for government funding of large-scale geoengineering and, according to a financial statement he gave the Royal Society, also works for Intellectual Ventures. In addition, Caldeira and Keith gave a further $240,000 to geoengineering advocates to travel and attend workshops and meetings and $100,000 to Jay Apt, a prominent advocate of geoengineering as a last resort, and professor of engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. Apt worked with Keith and Aurora Flight Sciences, a US company that develops drone aircraft technology for the US military, to study the costs of sending 1m tonnes of sulphate particles into the upper atmosphere a year.

Analysis of the eight major national and international inquiries into geoengineering over the past three years shows that Keith and Caldeira, Rasch and Prof Granger Morgan the head of department of engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University where Keith works, have sat on seven panels, including one set up by the UN. Three other strong advocates of solar radiation geoengineering, including Rasch, have sat on national inquiries part-funded by Ficer.

"There are clear conflicts of interest between many of the people involved in the debate," said Diana Bronson, a researcher with Montreal-based geoengineering watchdog ETC.

"What is really worrying is that the same small group working on high-risk technologies that will geoengineer the planet is also trying to engineer the discussion around international rules and regulations. We cannot put the fox in charge of the chicken coop."

"The eco-clique are lobbying for a huge injection of public funds into geoengineering research. They dominate virtually every inquiry into geoengineering. They are present in almost all of the expert deliberations. They have been the leading advisers to parliamentary and congressional inquiries and their views will, in all likelihood, dominate the deliberations of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as it grapples for the first time with the scientific and ethical tangle that is climate engineering," said Clive Hamilton, professor of Public Ethics at the Australian National University, in a Guardian blog.

The scientists involved reject this notion. "Even the perception that [a small group of people has] illegitimate influence [is] very unhealthy for a technology which has extreme power over the world. The concerns that a small group [is] dominating the debate are legitimate, but things are not as they were," said Keith. "It's changing as countries like India and China become involved. The era when my voice or that of a few was dominant is over. We need a very broad debate."


"Every scientist has some conflict of interest, because we would all like to see more resources going to study things that we find interesting," said Caldeira. "Do I have too much influence? I feel like I have too little. I have been calling for making CO2 emissions illegal for many years, but no one is listening to me. People who disagree with me might feel I have too much influence. The best way to reduce my influence is to have more public research funds available, so that our funds are in the noise. If the federal government played the role it should in this area, there would be no need for money from Gates.

"Regarding my own patents, I have repeatedly stated that if any patent that I am on is ever used for the purposes of altering climate, then any proceeds that accrue to me for this use will be donated to nonprofit NGOs and charities. I have no expectation or interest in developing a personal revenue stream based upon the use of these patents for climate modification.".

Rasch added: "I don't feel there is any conflict of interest. I don't lobby, work with patents or intellectual property, do classified research or work with for-profit companies. The research I do on geoengineering involves computer simulations and thinking about possible consequences. The Ficer foundation that has funded my research tries to be transparent in their activities, as do I."
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martin
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2012, 11:08:27 AM »

That'll be the "blue screen of death" for life on earth then............ facepalm
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djh
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2012, 11:19:15 AM »

Grauniad stirring mud. Business as usual then. The question is whether we need to do more research into geoengineering, and whether we should, and the answer is clearly yes.

After the research has been done, there should and will be a debate about whether we should implement geoengineering, and at that time we will have the evidence to make sensible decisions.

But groups of people on both sides of the debate, who have already made up their minds about what they believe the evidence will show, are trying to pretend that the discussions about funding research are actually about funding implementation.
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martin
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2012, 11:28:22 AM »

I think it's Gates having a "dose of the Blairs" (god-complex) yet again...... In principle, research is good in all directions, but I recoil in horror at the idea of US-centric concerns taking it upon themselves to "tinker" with the very fabric of our planet - I (partly) jokingly referred to the "blue screen of death" - it underlines the fallibility of man's machinations, and to me says that geoengineering is an incredibly dangerous avenue to proceed down, not least because (like nukes) it will give the thicket persuasion the excuse to continue carrying on their planet-wrecking ways......
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SimonHobson
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2012, 10:56:26 PM »

... not least because (like nukes) it will give the thicket persuasion the excuse to continue carrying on their planet-wrecking ways......
And you accuse others of having an axe to grind facepalm Your gratuitous introduction of nukes for no other reason than to take an opportunity to knock them is exactly the sort of behaviour you call trolling (together with the threat of a ban for daring to disagree with you) if anyone else does it. If you apply the same logic, then wind power and solar PV will also "give the thicket persuasion the excuse to continue carrying on their planet-wrecking ways" - there really isn't all that much difference once you've excluded the CO2 production (ie burning gas and coal).
One allows people to continue using electricity, the others allow people to continue using electricity, both are (virtually) CO2 free.
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martin
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2012, 10:58:25 PM »

"together with the threat of a ban for daring to disagree with you)" - people get bans for trolling and troublemaking, not disagreeing politely - I consider that statement in itself to be both......... whistlie
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2012, 11:47:23 PM »

That'll be the "blue screen of death" for life on earth then............ facepalm
Waits for the windoze message "weather has encountered a problem and needs to close "  Grin
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guydewdney
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« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2012, 12:04:26 AM »


And you accuse others of having an axe to grind facepalm Your gratuitous introduction of nukes for no other reason than to take an opportunity to knock them is exactly the sort of behaviour you call trolling

agreed
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2012, 12:07:42 AM »

Nuclear power is being used as an excuse to carry on our planet-wrecking ways, as I suspect will geoengineering - an entirely valid comparison......
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2012, 03:12:43 PM »

Regrettably not many people on the planet, in a position to change anything, truly understand the peril we are in from vested interests.  Engineering the climate is total madness.  This is not a simple chemical or physical system, it is immensely complex and will have profound consequences if messed with.  If you think the devastation from a nuclear accident is bad, this has to potential to kill millions, if the vested interests get it wrong.  I suspect for the people involved in geoengineering it is an unlimited cheque to do work, so I cannot imagine they are going to back down.

We have to get back some sensible control of democracy, such that scientists and engineers on mass, that understand AGW, can sensibly debate the issue and sensibly put forward measures that will bring humanity back from the brink of disaster.  For that to happen we need leaders that can and do make the correct decisions based on scientific evidence and proper risk analysis.  By that I mean risk analysis that is done without bias and peer reviewed, not some nuclear business case put forward by a puppet committee and passed by a puppet government that is in the pocket of the lobbyists.

Failing the implementation
 of the above measures I think it is clear that our children are "toast".  Probability about 90% at the moment.
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dimengineer
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2012, 05:22:55 PM »

I have to agree that large scale geo-engineering is a bit (a lot) scary. It does have the potential to really cock things up. However, knee jerk reactions are not the way forward. If we pre-emptively ban anything that has any risk we stop progress stone cold.

So I think the research should continue, and we should take an informed view on it, based on real evidence, rather than running round in small circles worrying about the sky falling on our heads.  bike

Tim
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« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2012, 08:18:11 PM »

If the climate goes potty, we may be forced into trying some sort of engineering, but given that it would only happen in extremis, it is almost bound to end in political disarray. Can you imagine the repercussions of the rain failing in the breadbasket of the USA or central Russia? Sounds like a recipe for war to me, somebody would be blamed. sh*tfan

Desp
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pdf27
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2012, 11:12:18 AM »

Ummm... have you guys looked up the proposed methods people are talking about? Most of them are either short-term measures to increase the albedo of the planet (i.e. spraying water mists into the air) or CO2 capture from atmosphere. One is local and not self-sustaining, the other is achieving exactly the same effect as you're trying to do by reducing CO2 output.
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« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2012, 02:09:51 PM »

Hallo pdf27,

those methods you mention particularly CO2 sequestration especially if the carbon could be recycled may not be so scary, but IIRC there are quite a few schemes that sound much more risky, sulphates at high altitudes, reflective chaff/mirrors in orbit, DMS aerosols, and enhanced rock (dolomites I think) weathering are a few that come to mind.
I confess to not knowing how effective or controllable these measures are, and researching them is one thing, actually deploying them is entirely another.

The scariest aspect for me is that should we develop a way of reversing AGW while continuing to increase CO2 levels, we would then be commited to it forever, and should something go wrong at a level of say 550ppm, then planetary heating would accelerate rapidly to unimaginable levels.

Desp
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2012, 05:25:16 PM »

Entirely agree Desperate, spot on.
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