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Author Topic: Bookwatch - "World Made By Hand" by James Howard Kunstler  (Read 2146 times)
KenB
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« on: February 20, 2008, 07:06:30 PM »

List,

JHK, better known for "Long Emergency"  Clusterfeck Nation, Eyesore of the Month, Geography of Nowhere and trying to tell the American nation that they are on the road to nowhere, has a new novel out, set in the near future just after peak oil and the long emergency.

World Made by Hand is available from Amazon and other booksellers.

Excerpt, review  available here:

http://worldmadebyhand.com/



Ken
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2008, 08:13:54 PM »

I love Kunstlers wry, grumpy old man way of writing. I will get the book soon I think, however alot the content might be quiet predictable.
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KenB
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2008, 01:08:52 PM »

List,

I have just completed "World Made by Hand"  by Jim Kunstler.

It's a good tale, and possibly a forewarning of how bad things could become - a worse case scenario.

He presents an interesting view of the near future (set in about 2025), where the fabric of modern life has completely collapsed, and those survivors have resorted to running small farmsteads, growing staple crops, rearing goats and chickens and using horses, mules and oxen for transportation and ploughing.

The electricity grid has failed almost completely except for brief surges of power that bring the lights and radios on for mere minutes per month.   

Some properties have  managed to maintain their own private power supply provided by small hydroelectric generators. No mention of solar pV or Listers  Sad but wind turbines do get a mention.

The infrastructure has fallen into terminal decline, no mail, no telephones and the roads have become so pot-holed that they are almost unusable even to horse drawn carts.  Notably was the loss of rubber for pneumatic tyres, and even a 40 mile trip was a 2 day ride.

It has made me contemplate what is the point of generating your own power, when few of the appliances, lightbulbs, consumer electronics etc are likely to work for long after the point of collapse, and replacement CFL bulbs from China are unlikely to be available.

Why should we want to generate 10kWh per day when the dishwasher is broken beyond repair, and electricity has little use apart from providing illumination after the hours of darkness?

The main underlying message, must be, to maintain the means to feed ourselves, heat our homes in winter and keep stuff refrigerated.  After that - very little else matters.


Enough of this doom and gloom, I recommend that you read the book and form your own opinions.



Ken




« Last Edit: March 01, 2008, 06:06:26 PM by KenB » Logged
martin
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2008, 01:16:32 PM »

what do you need the 'fridge for? Roll Eyes
My granny did fine with a cold larder with a marble slab......... Grin
I think the "way to go" is to start with what we NEED, not what we want or are used to.........(20w pv panel, 85 amp/hr battery a la 12ft caravan).......... Cool
I'm already eyeing my daughter's steed as a possible cart-dragger! Wink
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« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2008, 01:46:34 PM »

List,

I have just completed "World Made by Hand"  by Jim Kunstler.

It's a good tale, and possibly a forewarning of how bad things could become - a worse case scenario.

He presents an interesting view of the near future (set in about 2025), where the fabric of modern life has completely collapsed, and those survivors have resorted to running small farmsteads, growing staple crops, rearing goats and chickens and using horses, mules and oxen for transportation and ploughing.

How likely do you think Kunstler's doomy scenario is?  It does sound a little far-fetched to me (I haven't read the book but I've heard a few podcasts of talks given by Kunstler).  No oil for making pneumatic tyres by 2025???  Complete collapse of the world's economic infrastructure?  Really?  TOD's December mean-prediction for 2025 seems to suggest that the world will still be producing about 60 million barrels per day by 2025*.  Sure, the oil will be damned expensive (1000 Euros per barrel?) - but there will still be oil.

*The graph stops at 2020 but it looks fairly straightforward to extrapolate roughly to 2025.

« Last Edit: March 01, 2008, 01:49:39 PM by dan_aka_jack » Logged

martin
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« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2008, 01:54:14 PM »

I really don't think people have any conception what's in store - no good producing a graph, and assuming all that will change are the figures...........as all fuels become short, the strongest countries will hoard what they have, force everyone else to pay dearly for them, and doubtless wars will break out over it......... Roll Eyes
~Then we will have the problems of mass migration, both for economic and climate change reasons (and the wars mentioned above)......... Roll Eyes
Need I go on?
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2008, 02:18:18 PM »

Sure, I completely agree that things will get bad.  But my point is really: will things get as bad as Kunstler suggests by 2025?  I'm willing to bet a large number of karma points (!) that the UK will still have a functioning telephone network by 2025 (either fixed line or mobile or both).  Even an inept government will do all it can to prop up an essential component of the economic infrastructure like communications networks; I wouldn't be surprised if the entire of the UK's telephone system draws only a few hundred megawatts (perhaps even less?), the sort of load that a single large windfarm with pumped water storage might be able to supply (sure, modern server farms draw huge quantities of power... but how much power does the basic telephone network require?).
« Last Edit: March 01, 2008, 02:31:28 PM by dan_aka_jack » Logged

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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2008, 02:27:22 PM »

I'd suggest a quick look back to the early 70's to see just how much everyday life was upset by what was in essence just political problems, which had effects on fuel supplies....... Roll Eyes
-and extrapolate - a lot! Undecided
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dan_aka_jack
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2008, 04:47:25 PM »

Nastyness is already afoot.

Here's a fun Saturday afternoon exercise:

Go to this webpage: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/menu.html

Click on the "monthly" charts for any commodity you care to look at (especially enjoyable charts include wheat, soya, oil, corn, oats, aluminium).

Note with some horror the "hockey-stick" shape to almost all the graphs*.

Eject!  Eject!  Eject!

* Of course, those graphs are in dollars so the recent price-hikes in commodities aren't quite as dramatic for those of us who don't buy stuff using dollars.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2008, 06:32:09 PM by dan_aka_jack » Logged

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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2008, 05:11:46 PM »

I think the laws of economics will sort things out.

Prices will go high, so consumption will go down and home-grown anything will be maximised.

Falling consumption will force super insulation and heat recovery ventilation.


I've done enough driving for a lifetime..on yer bike mate!

I'm quite prepared to plant carrots in the front garden!

Carp anyone? The wonderful thing about carp is that they can breed in cold water with not much light. I learned about them at CAT. A small above ground pond in the UK can produce them.

Chicken tonight? Even with a free range density you can fit a lot of chickens into any back garden.

Me and wifey are quite happy watching a DVD on the laptop with a few candles lit and all the electric junk switched off.

PV panels? I love 'em. Bring on the tarrifs!

LEDs - they last forever.  Just need to find sustainable batteries that can be repaired by me.

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KenB
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« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2008, 05:55:22 PM »

List,

Kunstler does use a combination of catastrophies to take the world from it's present state to the picture he paints of 2025.

1. A major international war in the middle east over petroleum, from which the US had to retreat.
2. A terrorist dirty bomb going off in a shipping container in the port of Los Angeles
3. Rising sea levels which affect much of the east coast of the US.
4. A strain of influenza which wipes out a fair percentage of the population making business as usual impossible.
5. Climate change causing droughts and crop failures.
6. Breakdown of international trade, economic depression

Whilst any one of these in isolation might not bring about complete collapse, Kunstler borrows on all of them to present a plausible narrative of how the situation arrived.

All I can suggest is that you read the novel and draw your own conclusions.


Ken
« Last Edit: March 01, 2008, 07:03:36 PM by KenB » Logged
KenB
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« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2008, 06:12:53 PM »

Martin,

Turn your fridge off for a week or even a weekend and then come and tell me what you need a fridge for  Grin

Butter will keep for about a week in one of those evaporative coolers, but milk goes off within a couple of days.  Cheeses and some other dairy produce are designed to be preserved for several months/years -  if kept cool.

Electrical refrigeration may be one of the major losses from the 20th century, but fortunately there is the interesting science of thermoacoustics which can provide cooling and electrical energy from any heatsource.  A wood fired cool-box.

I see from your related post that James Lovelock certainly thinks we have less than 20 years before the brown stuff heads fanwards.

Ken

« Last Edit: March 01, 2008, 07:10:03 PM by KenB » Logged
KenB
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« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2008, 06:21:05 PM »

Jack,

The world can change literally overnight.

I was working in a south London office on the morning of September 11th, 2001.  Who could have predicted what would be happening by lunchtime?

On the morning of 7th July 2005, I was sitting in my garden office (shed) listening to Radio 2, when suddenly there was a newsflash suggesting that 6 tube stations had been bombed simultaneously. Whilst the early reports were lacking in any real information, it was clear that something was amiss.

We live in an ever unstable world.  Events like the above would have been unheard of a few years ago. Shortages and supply problems of petroleum are only one small part of the external stimulii that shape world events.

What's happening in Gaza today - does that not sound like trouble to you?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7272329.stm


Ken


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« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2008, 06:39:07 PM »

What's happening in Gaza today - does that not sound like trouble to you?

Absolutely sounds like trouble.  I've been following the news closely because I might be filming in Israel and Lebanon in March  Shocked

I think the laws of economics will sort things out.

Prices will go high, so consumption will go down and home-grown anything will be maximised.

Let's hope so.  I think one concern is that there's too much "economic momentum" to react fast enough if energy and food prices keep spiralling upwards.
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2008, 08:40:37 PM »

Fridges - only really need them in summer and PV will do the job nicely producing peak output exactly when it is needed. They will need 4in of Kingspan though.

Build them into an unheated north facing wall and use cool overnight temperatures for free.  Possibly a ducted fan to bring in cold air?

During Xmas our conservatory turns into a walk-in refrigerator.
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