Glad you enjoyed the ramblings caused from this project.
where the system is now is the result of trial & error - based on info picked up on this forum really. (I'll look at the book sometime perhaps)
The current chain is indeed overkill for what it currently is doing, however the parts were obtained for an earlier version and so thats why they are there now. The key problem I had was to use the low speed very high torque (esp in flood rage!) from the main axle. I have already stripped the first gear in a less manly gearbox

and now this one has been in constant use since early november there are 'notches' in the smooth running of this one... in low water the wheel will now stop as there is a stiff spot/jam in the gearbox, so I had to remove the chain and let it free run gently for the past few weeks till the rain started again a couple of weeks ago.
I want to redesign the take off to improve the efficiency and do away with the gearbox... ideally with a very large gear (almost the dia of the wheel) so that it should give me ~10:1 step up straight away in a pretty frictionless way . I have also toyed with the idea of mounting a rubber belt round the diameter of the wheel to do much the same thing.
My basic limitation is that I only have 1.00- 1.2 m of head that I am playing with. The learning curve so far now shows me that its really only feasible to get usable quantities out of perhaps a 2m wheel with bigger buckets... the buckets on mine at 5 inch deep aren't that far away from the axle to give enough power. I now want to make a bigger wheel further downstream where I can get about 2m drop in total, though I will have to build a long sluice (~20m) to supply water to this.