How many light bulbs does it need to change a man ?

[Flamethrower_]

Interesting video this should make us all think!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRQB2YXUxvY

[crispy]

The chap in the video, David MacKay, is a local hero. He's written a free book that everyone on this forum should read; WithoutHotAir. And, since writing the book, he has been appointed as chief scientific advisor to DECC, which actually makes me feel optimistic...

[langstroth2]

I read that book as a result of someone referencing it on this forum recently.

I thought it was really good, clear discussion of the facts about which energy production alternatives to fossil fuels might really make sense on a (UK) national scale. Refreshingly Mackay tries hard in the book to stick to the facts and figures (all backed up with references and appendices for those who want to delve deeper), hence the book's title.

If you haven't already, I'd recommend reading it.

[Flamethrower_]

I went to a one hour  presentation that he did at Oxford Brookes University last night (21/10/2009) he was very good and managed to explain a lot in a very short time.

95% of it I agree with, but as he has a position as a government advisor to DECC, I was a little concerned and worried that he seems to think that ASHP will be the answer as a retro fits to replace gas fired condensing boilers in most homes in the UK for us to go low carbon. I would like to think his sums are correct, but so far the real world does'nt give the promised performance.

The scenarios I have already come across are ASHP fitted to radiators systems that just DONT WORK (fitted by professional companies!)

I would love to know what results others may have had.

[martin]

I've come across the fellow before, I think his heart may be in the right place, but as you say, he leaps to some rather dodgy conclusions in choices of renewable technologies (I suggest he's listened to the same snake-oil salesmen the government have............)

[crispy]

He's pretty approachable. He's always responded to my questions. If you have concerns over his conclusion about ASHP, especially if you went to his talk last night, why not send him an email, and ask. I think he basis his conclusions on the best data he can find, and perhaps he just hasn't seen any real world studies looking at ASHP retrofitted to radiators and has relied instead on mfg data.

Here's the chapter of his book where he talks about "Smarter Heating". http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c21/page_140.shtml

He is comparing CHP with heat pumps looking to the future in terms of what strategy we should take as a country. There are a couple of things that are relevant here. Given that either CHP or heat pumps installed properly in the future will be a major retrofit, rather than a minor simple boiler swap, you could argue that upgrading radiators should be considered as part of the installation. He also makes the interesting observation that in Japan, government regulations have substantially improved heat pumps in recent years; you could argue that similar regulations if applied nationally over a few years could work to improve the technology to levels where COP for retrofits makes sense.

[dhaslam]

There are two types of heat pumps, direct and indirect.     I don't think the former type is allowed in the UK because the refrigerant goes trough the ground loop, using copper pipes.  COP can be about 6:1 as well as higher temperature of output.    In the long term most renewable energy is going to be in the form of electricity so efficient heat pumps  a major part of the future, both for space heating and winter hot water.  


I think his information on wind turbines may be a bit out of date.   The huge scale vertical ones seem to be capable of doing the job much more easily.   Like the DX heat pumps there will need to be a change of attitude to allow them.  

Correction - He did say air source which perhaps is not quite the same thing. 

[pcmadman]

I love his book!

I read it almost entirely in one go and I seldom read any books, simply because they're boring. (Okay, I'm a bit of a physicist maybe...)

And I must say that I agree with him on just about everything. The only difference being on the small scale, so still in the same order of magnitude. His book is about practical numbers, so that's no deal breaker.

I do think it's slowly getting a bit outdated. It looks at the future so the figures he uses for wind turbines should be a least those of the bigest build at this moment, which is 6MW or maybe even the  future planned ones at 7MW or more. Also the electric car is here. It's commercial. It's economical.

As for ASHP, he's probably right. GSHP will not work for the whole country. Also they're harder to retrofit. They're probably the way to go in suburban and definitely rural areas, but in the densly populated urban areas they'll simply freeze the ground permanently solid in a short period of time.

Also technology is advancing. I don't really think, whit all respect, that GB is on the cutting edge. Look at, for example: http://www.mitsubishi-electric-aircon.de/eng/zubadan.php
60C output at 100% rated down to -15C outside temperatures.

[billi]

I do think it's slowly getting a bit outdated. It looks at the future so the figures he uses for wind turbines should be a least those of the bigest build at this moment, which is 6MW or maybe even the  future planned ones at 7MW or more. Also the electric car is here. It's commercial. It's economical.

As for ASHP, he's probably right. GSHP will not work for the whole country. Also they're harder to retrofit. They're probably the way to go in suburban and definitely rural areas, but in the densly populated urban areas they'll simply freeze the ground permanently solid in a short period of time.

Also technology is advancing. I don't really think, whit all respect, that GB is on the cutting edge. Look at, for example: http://www.mitsubishi-electric-aircon.de/eng/zubadan.php
60C output at 100% rated down to -15C outside temperatures.

thats fair enough , but where will all the electricity come from ...then ... or are we starting to tell people now "Don't worry when Gas is out we have Electricity " 

and we can live from hot air (source heat pumps) and love ?

Billi

[Rupson and Aliert]

No-one ever mentions the N word when it comes to large scale generation and more importantly energy security ! or being a newbie have i missed some unwritten rule about never talking about the N word ?

[martin]

it has been historically discussed at great length and depth on this forum, my own view being that despite the industry's best efforts to hide it, nuclear has never, ever been economic, can only exist with vast subsidies, and is a filthy technology for which noone ever costs the clear-up.... The only reason it is being considered now is the not inconsiderable strength (and undue influence) of the industry's lobby groups.
Even those in favour have to admit that even if we went ahead straight away, it would be too late to fill the yawning gap we are heading for, and could only ever fill a tiny percentage of our needs........(which could far more satisfactorily be dealt with by making economies)
Its too little, too late...........

[Rupson and Aliert]

So when the population gets to 80million in 2033 what happens ? 

[PhatBob]

Dunno, but that's why I aim to be energy self-sufficient or dead by then.

[martin]

It need not - in fact, it would be far better that it doesn't - it's arithmetic!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=RdOk521m9WA
-then there's the small matter of "economies" - 'er indoors and myself can live quite happily in summer, with all our needs being provided by a 20w pv panel, controller and 85 amp/hr battery, and consuming circa 4kg of propane for a week whilst caravanning, AND you can have a luxurious shower in under 5 litres of warm water............(we waste power to a ridiculous extent - it is always better to "start at the other end" by making economies when thinking of powering a project, be it home, town or world.............
And as I said, nuclear is too little and far too late,  can only ever contribute a few percent, is an open invitation to terrorists, and will leave even more crud to be dealt with by those who come after us..........

[Rupson and Aliert]

As you have gathered i am a newbie but have been reading the various posts for a couple of years now and can gather that everybody who posts is generally above average intelligence and probably quite good company to have a couple of sociable pints with.

What worries me is the other 79,999,879 people on our tiny island come 2033 who are'nt energy self sufficient !

Maybe nuclear is'nt such a bad idea if it powers the other non-enlightened members of the populace ?