Current UK winter & the North Atlantic Convayer?

[SteveH]

 First thing to say is that I do realise the difference between the weather you have in the UK at the moment & long term climate change.

 I don't believe the current weather is an indicator of a sudden decline in the Gulf Stream, but I just wondered if this winter might be a "Taster of things to come"...

 No need to go through all the In's & Out's of the Conveyor/Gulf stream stopping scenario (Unless you want too  )...

 But how do you think the UK will cope if this was every winter & what would have to change to adapt... We can already see Major energy problems with gas.

 One the whole I suspect most members of the forum are happy with the degree of Independence they have as a result of investing in renewables, Would there need to be major changes in your installed systems to cope with more winters like this one?  Windscreen wipers on the PV & ET's perhaps? Or built in snow blower system?

[linesrg]

SteveH,

A report from NASA did indiacte that our climate here in the UK would be become colder and wetter as the melting Arctic ice caused larger volumes of colder water to deflect the Gulf Stream further south.

It was somewhere between -10 or -15 or -20oC at 050 this morning up here outside Insch in Aberdeesnhire.

I've had to scrape the snow off the panels the last three days now and we have 2ft of snow on the ground. I'll need to get on with mounting the 2.5kW of panels off the ground which Iwas going to start this time on leave from work offshore but the weather has me beat.

I have a NEW UBG Sunny Boy 2500 which I have to go and out and test install - as you can image at these temperatures there isn't much inclination.

I spent all yesterday morning up a ladder with a hote water hose and a large flat blade screwdriver and a hammer breaking between 1/2 and 1 1/2" of ice off the lower courses of slates to allow melt water off the roof to get to the roof edge and not use the ise as a 'weir' allowing the meltwater to come in under the slates  and into the utility room/ lobby via the window and door frame.

We'll need to get a larger gutter arrangement here and fit temperature controlled heat tracing.

We're having to access the car each morning via the tailgate as we can't get the doors open.It only just started this morning and there is more ice inside the rear windows than out. I could feel the ice forming on the hairs in my nostrils as I walked the 200mtrs down the track to the where the car is parked.

According to the weather foreacst it may get colder yet. Oh joy.

Regards

Richard

[AlanM]

richard, what melting arctic ice?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

As mentioned in other posts this weather is caused by the Arctic Oscillation entering a negative phase, which calms down the weather systems allowing cold air to sink down into northern euroe and the eastern side of the north america. The jet stream is tracking further south, taking the depressions we normally get, into the area of the med

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/28/the-arctic-oscillation-index-goes-strongly-negative/

Alan

[SteveH]

 Hello Richard,

 Rather than commiserate, maybe we can look at some solutions that may work if not this winter, for the next one like this...

 The car door frozen shut is all to common on modern cars... The door seals are too good, never got this problem with my old Ford Escort... I've been told to dry the door seal & coat it with Vaseline before now to prevent the condensation sticking it to the door frame. I'm not sure how good this would be for the rubber though... Maybe silicon spray (Mr Sheen... Sorry Martin... ) might be worth a try...

 The ice on the roof is more of a problem though... How good is your insulation? Maybe worth treating the outside of the slates with "Weather Shield" to stop the ice getting a grip into the surface....

 You can get mains plug-in electrical heaters to plumb into the car cooling system... might be worth considering...

 Steve...
 

[noelsquibb]

As mentioned in other posts this weather is caused by the Arctic Oscillation entering a negative phase, which calms down the weather systems allowing cold air to sink down into northern euro and the eastern side of the north America. The jet stream is tracking further south, taking the depressions we normally get, into the area of the med

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/28/the-arctic-oscillation-index-goes-strongly-negative/

Alan, your links are good and point towards the bigger picture. Thank you.
Too many narrow interests at play to be able to blindly accept  AGW.

Good comment from 'Innocentious' -
... when people say Natural Variation it is in contrast to Anthropological Global Warming. That is not to say that there are not definitive mechanisms that we are not learning about and peeling away from climate science. To be honest the true sad story is that AGW and it's backers have pretty much hijacked the real science funding that was going about and peeling back the first real layers of understanding that we were developing. that is not to say that it is not still going on only that the true scientists that are studying have to homage to the great AGW story in order to get funding.

As far as the ‘Natural Variation’ goes it is all about peeling back layer upon layer of complexity. Nothing in the climate system does not touch something else but the feedback and responses to any added variable are fluid in nature. Meaning that there are SO MANY VARIABLES to account for. This is one of the reasons why CO2 is a scapegoat rather then anything else. Just because in physics it says CO2 retains heat better than, say nitrogen, does not mean that by introducing CO2 into the atmosphere we will have an overall warmer climate… It also does not mean we will not have a warmer climate… You have to account for Solar radiance, tidal flux, oceanic currents, magnetic resonance, cosmic rays?, Tectonic movement, solar wind, cloud cover, evaporation, solar winds, UHI, and probably a few tens of things we have not learned enough about to ask the correct questions about. So while someone else may be able to answer your question as to what mechanism CAUSED the arctic to get colder I welcome the response, but what we have learned at the very least is the cause and effect of when it does this and the knowledge that it does in fact change.

[linesrg]

Steve H

The insulation in the utility room roof space is 50mm Celotex overlaid with at least 4" of fibreglass for the most part.

I have today ordered a 120ft heat trace kit c/w roof fixings which I will fit as soon as it arrives as the same thing has happened in the last 30hrs with water coming in over the window frame again so it looks like this will have to be a once a day thing.

I'll need to Google for a car door seal solution but silicon oil or spray may do the trick.

As for the Webasto type heater (or whover makes them nowadays) it may help but from speaking to others this morning it is more likely the diesel that is the problem as lots of people with diesels had exactly the same problem. Unfortunately the car is some 250mtrs from the house so I'd need a very long mains extension.

We have elderly neighbours up the hill who haven't started their Freelander in two weeks and chose today to do so, the combination of cold weather and battery having sat idle was a recipe for failure. They needed to do something as they are out of food etc. Once I knew this I was up the hill with a battery charger and I'll be back up tomorrow at 0730 to see if we can get it started and then help move some more snow as they won't get it out with what they've cleared so far. Failing that we'll need to do their shopping for them and/ or the AA to the rescue.


Regards

Richard