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Author Topic: grid scale solar + storage at record low cost  (Read 242 times)
dan_b
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« on: September 13, 2019, 12:48:15 PM »

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/los-angeles-approves-historically-low-cost-solarstorage-project/562681/

400MW solar plant with an energy at a cost below $0.02/kWh
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3.06kWp SolarEdge system with a split array:
2.18kWp 10x South facing, plus 4x West facing 880W

Mk1 ImmerSUN DHW diverter
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M
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2019, 04:09:35 PM »

Hi Dan, just to say that article doesn't completely stack up against another I've read which gives a price of 3.3c/kWh for PV + storage. Having read the article a few times, I wonder if the fixed cost of 2C/kWh reflects the PV only price, not the PV + storage?

Not being (too) pedantic, and 3.3c is fantastic, just trying to work out what's what here. Also, if the storage element is +1.3c/kWh (4hrs storage), then perhaps that would apply to any RE source, such as UK wind?

LA & 8Minute Solar Ink Lowest Cost Solar-Plus-Storage Deal In US History

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The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power has signed a groundbreaking 25-year power purchase agreement with 8Minute Solar. The deal will make possible the largest municipal solar plus storage facility in the US. But the best part is the combined price for solar energy plus storage is just 3.3 cents per kilowatt-hour, the lowest ever in the US and cheaper than electricity from a natural gas powered generating plant.

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Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
RIT
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2019, 06:43:21 PM »

This is a nice write up

   https: //insights.globalspec.com/article/12593/massive-solar-plus-storage-project-cleared-a-hurdle

It covers the costs and the fact that the project seems to be helping to replace three gas-fired power plants, much to the upset of the local union.
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2.4kW PV system, output can be seen at  - https://pvoutput.org/list.jsp?userid=49083

Why bother? - well, there is no planet B
Philip R
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2019, 07:07:10 PM »

Southern Calfornia and Los Angeles is at about 34 degrees latitude compared to UK 51 to 52 degrees North. The tropic of Capricorn is 23.5 degrees North. Come summer or Winter, the insolation is high in California. Hence the fantastic low costs for this installation. Something we cannot do PV wise in Northern Europe.

However, on a positive note, In the US, southern arid and dessert states like New Mexico, Arizona,  Texas, and even Utah and Nevada, with sizeable populace could similarly benefit from similar schemes. The US has always been blessed with ample natural resources, especially Energy. 

Augers well for other sunny places around the planet. Hence the rest of us too.
Philip R
 
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ewaste
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2019, 10:44:26 PM »

I'd agree 2 articles point to it being 3.3 cents per KWh ($33 per MWh) which would suggest $13 MWh for storage which will be a levelised cost of storage (LCoS), but over what period?

Looking at Lazards "Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Storage Comparison—$/MWh" published Nov 2018 they project $108 at the absolute best case to $140 for 'utility scale PV + Storage'.

They note the following "Note: Here and throughout this presentation, unless otherwise indicated, analysis assumes 20% debt at an 8% interest rate and 80% equity at a 12% cost of equity."

Which I would imagine has some detrimental impact on the cost vs state or other funding.

It's all synthetic accounting magic compared to what the rational person understands in my humble opinion, maybe I'm thick, but either the $13MWh is heavily subsidised or they are betting on some pretty hefty battery chemistry and cost improvements between now and actual implementation in which case I'll sell you a GWh for $1  fingers crossed!

If anyone can actually simplify that would be ace, seems to good to be true for $13MWh  Huh

Link (>>WARNING WILL DOWNLOAD PDF<<) https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi_x7HO4s7kAhVGSRUIHaVsCToQFjAAegQIAhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lazard.com%2Fmedia%2F450774%2Flazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-40-vfinal.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1SFyUmw4QB65U_5pEDrr82

(Edit:- Obviously not saying anything of the idea that they are replacing 3 Gas Plants with unknown capacity for a 400MW PV farm with 3-4hrs of rated capacity as storage.)



« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 10:47:23 PM by ewaste » Logged
RIT
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2019, 11:54:11 PM »

"Note: Here and throughout this presentation, unless otherwise indicated, analysis assumes 20% debt at an 8% interest rate and 80% equity at a 12% cost of equity."

Changing those rates/costs can have major impacts on the overall cost of a project. The company behind this deployment has a business model where they get a long term power purchase agreement in place, builds the project out (with whatever borrowing is required) and then sells its interest on to investors (and so clearing the borrowing). Such an investment is likely to trade at far better terms than 8-12% in the current markets as it is likely to be sold onto investors that would otherwise be purchasing bonds. The best example I could find in the USA was a 'green' wind based energy bond from MidAmerican Energy (US595620AS49) that publicly currently trades with a running yield of around 3.5% until 2048. It's not clear how redemption is handled but as the bond is trading above its issue price it is likely that the lifetime yield is below 3.5% as a purchaser is only going to get back the bonds face value at redemption.

The Lazard report also seems to suffer a lot from being a 'point in time' report, so the figures given in the version 4.0, 2018 report are just for 2018 and all you have to do is look at the version 3.0 from 2017 and you will see that the figures have changed a lot (as has much of the methodology). The company behind this project is having to predict cost changes over the next 2-3 years.
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2.4kW PV system, output can be seen at  - https://pvoutput.org/list.jsp?userid=49083

Why bother? - well, there is no planet B
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