Navitron Renewable Energy and Sustainability Forum

Announcements & News => Media Watch => Topic started by: dimengineer on October 08, 2017, 05:26:40 PM



Title: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: dimengineer on October 08, 2017, 05:26:40 PM
From Clean Technica

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/07/ev-transition-mirror-horse-model-t-transition/

It ties in with my Fag Packet calculations from a few weeks ago - https://www.navitron.org.uk/forum/index.php/topic,28879.0.html.

There's nothing like confirmation bias eh... ;D


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: RIT on October 08, 2017, 06:02:19 PM
I would say that is an optimistic view.

I'm sure many replies to the report will comment about things like the lack of infrastructure, but for the US market the real indicator has to be the average age of light vehicles on their roads, which currently stands at over 11 years. So there is going to have to be major incentives to get people to move from working cars that they already own to new EVs. It's more likely that in the next few years we will soon see the EV incentives that are already in place being withdrawn and additional taxes being charged on EVs. Currently, the UK government is covering 4,500 of the purchase price of an EV and charging zero road tax on the car, while ICE cars are taxed to the tune of around 20B a year. Any major swing to EVs will have the government changing the tax system very quickly to protect that income.

I quite sure that within say 10 years that a very high percentage of new cars being sold will be EVs, but that is unlikely to mean a large number of ICEs cars being removed from the roads early. Tony Seba uses the example of horse-drawn carriages within his talk, but an ICE car does not quite have the same limitations and so there is less need to replace them and even if replaced the ICE car will just be sold in the second-hand market unless we end up with a permanent scrappage scheme that does destroy the cars collected.



Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: dimengineer on October 08, 2017, 08:07:07 PM
Yep - don't disagree. Its just that there was a report, seized upon by those who should know better, that 50% of British motorists believed they would be driving EV in 5 years. So I did a fag packet calc which I felt showed it could not possibly be so. This Cleantechnica article (who are never knowingly underoptimistic TM) kind of proved my point.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: brackwell on October 08, 2017, 09:54:03 PM
Of course your correct. It amuses me that anybody took notice of such a non reputable survey in the first place.   However if we talk about mileage then indeed i can envisage 50% of the miles being done by EV in 5yrs time but still a big ask.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: linesrg on October 08, 2017, 10:40:38 PM
Good Evening Guys,

I've been looking at the practicalities of replacing our existing 2004/ 5 model year Golf with an EV for sometime (as mentioned elsewhere). I had hoped I would be a part of the market penetration but currently the Golf has averaged some 260 miles a week over the last two years. Such as the kayaking trips at the weekend and maybe two trips a week back and forth from the house to the flat and, all of a sudden, the EV looks less viable/ practical.

We also have a 2004 Discovery Tdi which is used for towing but, in all honesty, hasn't done any towing for 18 months so you have to start thinking as to whether it makes more sense to hire something for towing as req'd and replace the Disco with something more suited to conveying kayaks economically and then replacing the Golf with an EV?

There is still the charging issue in town...........

Regards

Richard


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: oliver90owner on October 08, 2017, 11:33:31 PM
What the dims of this world don't think about are all those two car, or more, households.  Probably one of them could be substituted with an EV.  It would likely be driven by both householders (or more) for the local trips where the leccy costs so much less than the fossil fuel.

A friend already has at least six vehicles he can choose from. One of those is a Leaf.

Not only him and his wife, but also his son and daughter will doubtless be using it within 5 years,  for local running around as a 'pool car'.  Now what questions did that survey actually ask?  Surveys/polls are well known for the wrong conclusions being drawn by those that don't read the questions accurately.

Lets face it, as more hybrids and plug in hybrids become the norm, as part of the showroom line up, more will be taken up.  My next purchase may well be at least part electric, but we will still retain the other car for towing and long journeys (if the EV only has a short range).  We will be another two motorists but only the one EV involved.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: TheFairway on October 09, 2017, 02:18:52 PM
The recent increase in buying cars on PCP/HP type purchases means that many car purchases come round every 3 or 4 years.

Possibly a bit early for those who recently took out a 3 year PCP deal (even those planning ahead are looking to end 2019 for a new EV that can be a full ICE replacement), but second iteration at 5-6 years I think would be the turning point, so 2022/23.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: djh on October 09, 2017, 02:26:55 PM
We also have a 2004 Discovery Tdi which is used for towing but, in all honesty, hasn't done any towing for 18 months so you have to start thinking as to whether it makes more sense to hire something for towing as req'd

I'd be cautious about that plan. I got a boat and initially used to hire Transits to tow it but I often had problems trying to find a hire vehicle equipped for towing. The last straw was one time going down a muddy ramp when the whole rig started sliding down until the boat was in the water! So I bought a 4WD Jeep. Shame about the mpg.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: dimengineer on October 09, 2017, 08:50:35 PM
This is, of course, one of the flaws in the "hire a specialist vehicle when you need one" argument.

So, there you are, you have your nice EV which has a nice range of 150 miles, perfect fro the commuting and 95% of your journeys. Then you want to go - Skiing to the alps, or caravanning, or taking all your kids stuff to university. So you hire a large, unfamiliar vehicle, which you are going to get into and do the longest trip that you will do all year - what can possibly go wrong!


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: RIT on October 09, 2017, 10:03:35 PM
This is, of course, one of the flaws in the "hire a specialist vehicle when you need one" argument.

So, there you are, you have your nice EV which has a nice range of 150 miles, perfect fro the commuting and 95% of your journeys. Then you want to go - Skiing to the alps, or caravanning, or taking all your kids stuff to university. So you hire a large, unfamiliar vehicle, which you are going to get into and do the longest trip that you will do all year - what can possibly go wrong!

Oddly this is just the type of thing myself and friends often do as it allows you to get a car that meets the needs of the journey, with space often being the main requirement. I've never had a problem going from a MGB to a 'large, unfamiliar vehicle', but it's very odd going back to the MGB for a few days.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: oliver90owner on October 10, 2017, 05:30:09 AM
Ha ha, the longest journey for most families is likely on a plane to a Spanish resort!  The number of hirers who get the wrong vehicle type is a tiny minority.  Someone is clutching at straws,  I reckon. :)


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: noah on October 10, 2017, 08:12:59 AM
Back in the sixties when I was a dispatch rider I went from Velocette (right foot gears, left brake) to Honda step through (automatic) to Honda CD175 (left foot gears, right brake) to Vespa (left hand gear/clutch) in the space of one day. Wonder if I could handle that sort of change today?


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: dimengineer on October 10, 2017, 12:34:09 PM
Ha ha, the longest journey for most families is likely on a plane to a Spanish resort!  The number of hirers who get the wrong vehicle type is a tiny minority.  Someone is clutching at straws,  I reckon. :)

Not really clutching at straws, just pointing out how a lot of people may view it. People generally want a car that will do all that they want it to do.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: M on October 10, 2017, 12:48:42 PM
People generally want a car that will do all that they want it to do.

Hit the nail on the head.

So, 'we' need to point out how it could be better to make use of more than one car, have a more suitable run-about and then hire a more suitable motorway cruiser, rather than settling on a one size fits nobody, single solution.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: TheFairway on October 10, 2017, 01:36:43 PM
I think for 99.9% of anyones needs (probably 100% for most), there are solutions right here, right now - how many people need to drive >200-300 miles without a break? But they are largely unaffordable to many nor available in mass numbers, or possibly in the model variations that people may desire.

So I think the problem is affordability (and to a limited extent availability and variation), rather than finding a physical solution. And they will become more affordable and available and so become more accessible to the masses as long as the right variant/size choice is available.



Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: bxman on October 10, 2017, 01:39:27 PM
Surely the answer is the expansion of car sharing  clubs with a range of vehicles , the vast majority of which would not need massive heavy batteries  so could be lighter and thereby be more efficient  


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: M on October 10, 2017, 03:26:22 PM
So I think the problem is affordability (and to a limited extent availability and variation), rather than finding a physical solution. And they will become more affordable and available and so become more accessible to the masses as long as the right variant/size choice is available.

I could be massively wrong here, but EV's may lend themselves to more variation as their basic design is a skateboard, on which (I assume?) you could mount various bodies, so a manufacturer could design and test perhaps just 3 or 4 wheelbase variants, on which maybe 3 or 4 shapes per base could be designed, bringing down costs.

We own a Zafira, which I believe is built on an Astra platform, so a lot is possible going forwards.

I'm also thinking that motor (engine) options become less important as a basic electric motor is probably more than enough for most of us, so multiple variations and upgrades won't be necessary. If someone really wants more power or grip etc, then a twin motor design like the D (dual) Tesla options with a second motor serving the front wheels.

I bet there is no end of ways to simplify and reduce costs with EV's v's ICE's.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: oliver90owner on October 10, 2017, 03:29:33 PM
Just consider EV sales.  The rise is exponential and would not seem to be levelling off for several years.  Most of those current owners will be changing their vehicles in the next 5 years and those second hand ones will be offered at affordable prices, so the number of adopters will increase as the second hand market blossoms.  I don't think many current EV owners will be changing back to ICE.

Remember that one new adopter also reduces the fossil only drivers by a tiny percentage as well.  5 years and 50% seems doable to me, but it was only a poll of current drivers.  It is not a prediction set in stone...


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: phoooby on October 10, 2017, 04:32:18 PM
Already on my second EV so doing my bit for the second hand market !. I think Nissan have it right doing the 4 day test drive they used to offer. When people see how they perform in the real world they will realise that the majority of people could cover  the majority of their needs with a 150-200 mile car, may would only need a 100 mile car but that is a harder sell.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: Countrypaul on October 10, 2017, 06:21:18 PM
One issue about sharing, and I have no idea what proportion it affects is allergies. If you are using a car from a sharing service then how can you be sure the person before you has not "contaminated"  the car before you  use it?  We hired a car when is New Zealand a few years ago and within 5 miles my wife was having severe problems - we had to get the car changed even though it had been cleaned beforehand and there was nothing obvious to see, but the previous users must have had a dog in the car (they gave us a brand new one with about 10km on the clock as the replacement).


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: dimengineer on October 10, 2017, 10:48:35 PM
Just consider EV sales.  The rise is exponential and would not seem to be levelling off for several years.  Most of those current owners will be changing their vehicles in the next 5 years and those second hand ones will be offered at affordable prices, so the number of adopters will increase as the second hand market blossoms.  I don't think many current EV owners will be changing back to ICE.

Remember that one new adopter also reduces the fossil only drivers by a tiny percentage as well.  5 years and 50% seems doable to me, but it was only a poll of current drivers.  It is not a prediction set in stone...

Nope. 50% not doable in any real world scenario. Apart from a war footing, it just is not, and cannot happen. 15 years, quite possibly, 5 Nope.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: azps on October 11, 2017, 09:49:54 AM
Nope. 50% not doable in any real world scenario. Apart from a war footing, it just is not, and cannot happen. 15 years, quite possibly, 5 Nope.

Well, we really really should be on a war footing, given that we're talking about a threat to the future of human civilisation. Sadly, as in the UK's political system it's only the Greens who understand this, it looks like we won't be on a war footing until the climate disasters become much more frequent.

But anyway, as others have pointed out, it really depends what it's 50% of. If it's 50% of the population taking at least one trip a year in a vehicle with an electric engine, yeah, I reckon 5 years is doable. Most of the Uber rides I take are already either BEVs or hybrids. A lot of people will chose some form of electric car for their second car. The London ultra low-emissions zone will increase the incentives. And the huge Chinese push on EVs will really boost production capacity.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: dhaslam on October 11, 2017, 03:15:49 PM
In Ireland EVs are still a long way off.  At present the total number registered is about 2000 and these are mostly hybrids.    The biggest problems are range, cost and lack of confidence in public recharging facilities.  There is, for example, only one recharging station west of Galway and today It is partly out of service.  It will need a new generation of cars, perhaps five years to even start the change.    In the meantime new conventional car sales are increasing.   Most cars in country areas are pre recession so there will be a lot of new fossil fuel cars, about 150,000 per annum for the next few years so electric cars will be less than one percent.   The budget brought on zero benefit in kind for employer owned electric vehicles but most employers  have difficulty in raising working capital and would be reluctant to spend large amounts on  employee cars.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: dimengineer on October 11, 2017, 07:26:50 PM
Nope. 50% not doable in any real world scenario. Apart from a war footing, it just is not, and cannot happen. 15 years, quite possibly, 5 Nope.

Well, we really really should be on a war footing, given that we're talking about a threat to the future of human civilisation. Sadly, as in the UK's political system it's only the Greens who understand this, it looks like we won't be on a war footing until the climate disasters become much more frequent.

But anyway, as others have pointed out, it really depends what it's 50% of. If it's 50% of the population taking at least one trip a year in a vehicle with an electric engine, yeah, I reckon 5 years is doable. Most of the Uber rides I take are already either BEVs or hybrids. A lot of people will chose some form of electric car for their second car. The London ultra low-emissions zone will increase the incentives. And the huge Chinese push on EVs will really boost production capacity.

One trip per year in an EV = 50% take up? You are having a laugh arent you. That is beyond cherry picking, its pretty well fraudulent. Anyway, taking a tip in an Uber - have you no shame - a devious, criminal operation screwing the taxpayer and its (non) employees.


Title: Re: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration
Post by: azps on October 11, 2017, 10:42:53 PM
taking a tip in an Uber - have you no shame - a devious, criminal operation screwing the taxpayer and its (non) employees.

Well, as London taxis (hackney carriages) and other minicab firms are riddled with crime too, then they're no better an alternative. Whereas, with Uber, I do get professional drivers, cleaner cars, and I don't get racist misogynist drivers. I get a better service and a lower price.

And the drivers I use are far more sensible than to do something as stupid and selfish as drinking & driving.