Navitron Renewable Energy and Sustainability Forum

Announcements & News => Media Watch => Topic started by: desperate on August 07, 2018, 10:20:14 AM



Title: We're f**ked!
Post by: desperate on August 07, 2018, 10:20:14 AM
I've long believed were are waaaay too late to do much about the state of the Planet,

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/06/domino-effect-of-climate-events-could-push-earth-into-a-hothouse-state

even more so when I look at our disfunctional Politicians who are a complete bunch of wa*kers who can't even work out how to talk to each other.


Was James Lovelock right?

Desp


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: Bodidly on August 07, 2018, 10:42:14 AM
Yep way too late. There are some baby steps taken the right way but nothing substantial. At the end of the day the politicians who make the decisions are only in power for a short time and want to please the general public for the short term. Not enough of the public are prepared to take on the chin the massive paradigm shift that would be required. Global warming is too slow for anyone to take immediate action IMO

We will just adapt to the warming world as best we can letting some places become uninhabitable. The poor third world as usual will suffer the most while we are responsible for their plight  banghead:


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: biff on August 07, 2018, 11:22:05 AM
The pollution of the Niger Delta should have brought an armed UN response,
                                But instead they waffled and slid sideways and now the area is a man made disaster area growing worse every year.
  You do not have to look very far to see exactly who is responsible but the ordinary people are dying of all kinds of rare cancers that never appeared before and food like fish is impossible to catch or eat.
 This could be the whole planet in less than 50 years unless something is done about it.
                                           Biff
 


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: todthedog on August 07, 2018, 05:00:36 PM
A US President in denial of anything but self aggrandisement.  fpig:
A British prime minister that I would not trust with 50p to go and buy a newspaper without mishap.
Leading a government that has destroyed the solar industry and is trying to wreck renewables. :fume
Leaders!!!
Would the world be a worse place if the killing ape wiped itself out.

Too little too late!


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: pdf27 on August 07, 2018, 06:50:38 PM
Listening to this chap on the radio this morning I was not at all impressed - he did an absolutely terrible job of justifying the hypothesis in the paper. It wasn't even the presenter either - he made a number of logic jumps and didn't even attempt to support them. I gave up listening when he claimed that because the earth is currently the warmest it's been since the last ice age getting any warmer will mean it automatically tips over and get continually hotter. While this may be how the system works, that isn't how most similar systems work and was something he really needed to justify, which he made no effort to.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: desperate on August 07, 2018, 09:13:30 PM
Listening to this chap on the radio this morning I was not at all impressed - he did an absolutely terrible job of justifying the hypothesis in the paper. It wasn't even the presenter either - he made a number of logic jumps and didn't even attempt to support them. I gave up listening when he claimed that because the earth is currently the warmest it's been since the last ice age getting any warmer will mean it automatically tips over and get continually hotter. While this may be how the system works, that isn't how most similar systems work and was something he really needed to justify, which he made no effort to.

I've given up listening to today, it induces me to throw things at the radio facepalm

Did you follow the link to this?

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

to be fair to the authors they do state that this analysis is by no means conclusive, but the signposts are lining up and all, or nearly all pointing to a bad place.
As I alluded to earlier some scientists were warning and writing about this kind of scenario more than thirty years ago, and yet we have acheived nothing in terms of CO2 reduction, in fact if you look here,

https://www.co2.earth/

after a few years of slowdown it is starting to accelerate again.

Desp


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: sam_cat on August 07, 2018, 09:14:41 PM
We need a science based worldwide dictatorship.... Its the only way.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: RIT on August 07, 2018, 09:59:24 PM
We need a science based worldwide dictatorship.... Its the only way.

God no, science can rather easily show that humans are causing an issue that can result in a very bad situation. The same science can then be applied to solving the issue in the quickest time and at the least cost. What do you think the resulting solution would be to the question of how do we reduce the strain that 7.4B people place on the planet as soon as possible and for the lowest cost.

What we need is a political class that acts on the information that science provides, rather than hoping that their term/life will be over before the issues become so bad that they are directly affected.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: pdf27 on August 08, 2018, 06:25:26 AM
Listening to this chap on the radio this morning I was not at all impressed - he did an absolutely terrible job of justifying the hypothesis in the paper. It wasn't even the presenter either - he made a number of logic jumps and didn't even attempt to support them. I gave up listening when he claimed that because the earth is currently the warmest it's been since the last ice age getting any warmer will mean it automatically tips over and get continually hotter. While this may be how the system works, that isn't how most similar systems work and was something he really needed to justify, which he made no effort to.

I've given up listening to today, it induces me to throw things at the radio facepalm

Did you follow the link to this?

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

to be fair to the authors they do state that this analysis is by no means conclusive, but the signposts are lining up and all, or nearly all pointing to a bad place.
As I alluded to earlier some scientists were warning and writing about this kind of scenario more than thirty years ago, and yet we have acheived nothing in terms of CO2 reduction, in fact if you look here,

https://www.co2.earth/

after a few years of slowdown it is starting to accelerate again.

Desp
I have now. Rather better than the guy doing the interview, but very much a paper good for preaching to the converted. Essentially they're talking about (and giving some detail on) effects where by warming may lead to more warming, and mention effects which may counteract this but then proceed to gloss over them and make no attempt to explore them further. That means those who don't believe in climate change will just jump straight on that omission and proceed to ignore the rest of the paper.
The other area that concerns me is this rather good-looking diagram:
(http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/07/31/1810141115/F2.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1)
Which essentially implies that above certain CO2 levels in the atmosphere (quite low ones compared to those found further back in geological time, in fact) the earth will be stuck in a very stable warm state. During the Carboniferous period, for instance, we were at about 1500 PPM and the earth was a much warmer place - and yet it quite literally grew out of that as masses of vegetation growth absorbed it and laid it down as coal. That's the very effect they're saying can be ignored, which makes me rather uncomfortable with some of the headline conclusions of the report.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: oliver90owner on August 08, 2018, 07:13:54 AM
Comparing the Earth of a couple hundred million years ago with present conditions, for comfortable human existence, is rather extreme.

Humans, in our current form, are unlikely to be around in another million years - let alone 200 million.  Humanity is already well on the way to self destruction, IMO.

200 million years ago, or more, and the Earth was a different place.  The still single(?) land mass was fairly well positioned across the equator and the ocean (effectively one large one?) would have caused rather different weather conditions to prevail than we are experiencing.

In the current timescale, we are looking at only a few centuries, not millions.

Saying ‘we’ while referring to the carboniferous period is a bit cheeky.  ‘We’ weren’t even thought of back then and a mass extinction occurred between then and now!


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: Bodidly on August 08, 2018, 07:57:17 AM
"and yet it quite literally grew out of that as masses of vegetation growth absorbed it and laid it down as coal"

 We are never going to let that happen. We will burn it faster than it can grow.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: snyggapa on August 08, 2018, 09:41:02 AM
Humans, in our current form, are unlikely to be around in another million years - let alone 200 million.  Humanity is already well on the way to self destruction, IMO.

A million years? I give it 100 years, max, before termites are again the dominant species on the planet

Natural order restored , all that will be found in about 100 million years when the next intelligent species evolves will be a thin unexplainable radioactive layer in the soil when they dig down


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: azps on August 08, 2018, 10:50:23 AM
Which essentially implies that above certain CO2 levels in the atmosphere (quite low ones compared to those found further back in geological time, in fact) the earth will be stuck in a very stable warm state. During the Carboniferous period, for instance, we were at about 1500 PPM and the earth was a much warmer place - and yet it quite literally grew out of that as masses of vegetation growth absorbed it and laid it down as coal. That's the very effect they're saying can be ignored, which makes me rather uncomfortable with some of the headline conclusions of the report.

That's the effect that they say can be ignored at the timescales of human lifetimes.

And they're right. It can, as far as we as a civilisation are concerned, be ignored at those timescales.

Still, you're right to be uncomfortable with the report's conclusions. They are very uncomfortable. They should be uncomfortable. The warning signs are getting louder, clearer, and more dangerous. We've been largely ignoring them for decades, and we've now baked in many trillions of pounds of damage for the coming decades. The big question now is, how much larger will we let that damage become?


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: djs63 on August 08, 2018, 10:55:48 AM
In the end it is about the global temperature at which the human race can survive. Loss of water and food supplies, heat deaths etc will soon be common place, perhaps within a century.  banghead:Millions of years ago there were no humans...


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: desperate on August 08, 2018, 10:37:08 PM
Listening to this chap on the radio this morning I was not at all impressed - he did an absolutely terrible job of justifying the hypothesis in the paper. It wasn't even the presenter either - he made a number of logic jumps and didn't even attempt to support them. I gave up listening when he claimed that because the earth is currently the warmest it's been since the last ice age getting any warmer will mean it automatically tips over and get continually hotter. While this may be how the system works, that isn't how most similar systems work and was something he really needed to justify, which he made no effort to.

I've given up listening to today, it induces me to throw things at the radio facepalm

Did you follow the link to this?

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

to be fair to the authors they do state that this analysis is by no means conclusive, but the signposts are lining up and all, or nearly all pointing to a bad place.
As I alluded to earlier some scientists were warning and writing about this kind of scenario more than thirty years ago, and yet we have acheived nothing in terms of CO2 reduction, in fact if you look here,

https://www.co2.earth/

after a few years of slowdown it is starting to accelerate again.

Desp
I have now. Rather better than the guy doing the interview, but very much a paper good for preaching to the converted. Essentially they're talking about (and giving some detail on) effects where by warming may lead to more warming, and mention effects which may counteract this but then proceed to gloss over them and make no attempt to explore them further. That means those who don't believe in climate change will just jump straight on that omission and proceed to ignore the rest of the paper.


Which essentially implies that above certain CO2 levels in the atmosphere (quite low ones compared to those found further back in geological time, in fact) the earth will be stuck in a very stable warm state. During the Carboniferous period, for instance, we were at about 1500 PPM and the earth was a much warmer place - and yet it quite literally grew out of that as masses of vegetation growth absorbed it and laid it down as coal. That's the very effect they're saying can be ignored, which makes me rather uncomfortable with some of the headline conclusions of the report.

As others have said though this is all about timescales, as I'm sure you know the Carboniferous and it's subsquent pumping down of CO2 took a hundred million million years or more, we've messed up the atmosphere in a matter of decades. And despite that pumping down of CO2 that period didn't end well, the Permian/triassic extinction event put paid to a lot of species 80% plus I think. A strong possibility is it was caused by a volcanic or impact event triggering a release of methane from clathrates and hence a runaway greenhouse.

 Not so dissimilar to our present situation?

I think there are plenty of examples throughout history where a sequence of events caused the climate to become unstable but generally those events have been random, but we seem to be consistently pushing the climate towards the hotter end of the scale which I think is unusual to say the least.

Desp



Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: kristen on August 14, 2018, 04:06:58 PM
As others have said though this is all about timescales, as I'm sure you know the Carboniferous and it's subsquent pumping down of CO2 took a hundred million million years or more, we've messed up the atmosphere in a matter of decades.

xkcd (https://xkcd.com/1732/) has a nice picture :) Its a bit big, dunno if will display in the forum, if not pls follow the link


(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/earth_temperature_timeline.png) (https://xkcd.com/1732/)


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: Tigger on August 15, 2018, 11:32:09 AM
Hmm, hadn't realised Pokemon in North America went extinct so long ago.......

It certainly makes for an interesting timeline, sort of grateful that I'm in my 50s so probably not too likely to survive into the potential chaotic period that appears to be on the way but very concerned for those younger than me :(


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: MeatyFool on August 15, 2018, 01:07:19 PM
Wow, scroll and scroll and scroll to get to the median line (11000 years to warm 4 degrees).

Fast forward to now, and the action all happens in an inch of screen real estate.

Worst case, 3 degrees in 80 years.

How can these idiots simply say "so what, the earth has warmed before".

Meatyfool..


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: todthedog on August 16, 2018, 03:10:30 PM
What an interesting link.
thanks.

We really are *****ed


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: dimengineer on August 16, 2018, 03:19:25 PM
I've long thought that the time lag/hysteresis for a system as large as the earth has to be many decades, or even centuries. So once you see it start to move, you ain't going to stop it, not reasonably, in any short time. 
So, yes, a degree of heating is inevitable. How much, I don't know. How long will it take to stop it? - again I don't know, but it will be decades, if not centuries.

SO we just have ot keep working towards a low carbon future, but there is little point in destroying ourselves in achieving it, as it'll take a long time to "work" anyway. (If it does)  :(


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: kristen on August 17, 2018, 07:54:37 AM
SO we just have ot keep working towards a low carbon future

I've done a bit, I'm going to do a bit more, but I'm now thinking that maybe I need to figure out a way to make a proper difference. Maybe all us early-adopters do too.

What would that be? I figure I need government to change it's mind and enforce some stuff. I'm sceptical that' possible le (e.g. move to making-change on a war-footing, but without a war ...) How is that achieved?

Norway seems to have achieved a fair bit with their sovereign wealth fund, but I can't think of other countries, off hand, that are doing.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: biff on August 17, 2018, 06:01:01 PM
It is truly depressing,
                  It must be a good 20 years since i stopped going for a swim locally. We used to have great swimming areas with naturally occurring rock pools the size of very large man made swimming pools. Great for getting climatised before swimming out into the open. The last half dozen times i went swimming in the sea,,I seemed to get a touch of a sore throat for a few days ,,other swimmers said the same..
The local sewerage treatment plants were not 100% efficient but I know for sure that they are even worse now.
Then the plastic and rubbish everywhere was terrible until they organised the local groups to battle against it. One year we lost all our blue star ratings and it took a few years to get some of them back.
There is so little being done and the message takes too long to deliver that it is going to take some kind of global disaster before the world wakes up,,if ever.
 My visitors have been here for a few days, The professor and my grandkids. The kids arrived with all kinds of software and tablets. Little rubber fingers flit across the screens,,designing and building houses ,,with swimming pools ,,diving boards,,even a dog..Mine craft they call it. Then they communicate with each other online and wage war with each other wrecking each other houses,, this was after taking the back of our dongle and reading the wi-fi number, If they can do this at 7 and 10 years respectively then the world is going to be very digital indeed.
  I could see come kind of scenario where the world is so toxic everyone has to live in underground bunkers and humans grow extra fingers and bigger eyes., or eyes that can adapt to the gloom. Hacking into each others PCs and waging war  by knocking out each other missiles before they even leave the launcher. Could this be the future, ? Food would come in small tubes and the toilet would be something similar but fed back into some kind of bio digester and used for heating. Perhaps this is already thought out and the powers that be, are banking on keeping control by being the only ones that know about it and are ready set up to go and live underground.
        Cheerful am I,
                          Biff


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: skyewright on August 18, 2018, 06:41:06 PM
Perhaps this is already thought out...
IIRC it's not a million miles off the sort of scenario James Lovelock imagines as a possible future?


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: desperate on October 08, 2018, 08:34:45 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report


As Aretha Franklin said in The Blues Brothers..............sheeeeiiit!

what's the chances anyone in power will take it seriously??  to be fair only Caroline Lucas will

Desp


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: azps on October 09, 2018, 08:49:17 AM
what's the chances anyone in power will take it seriously??  to be fair only Caroline Lucas will

I've been working for over quarter of a century on this. Part of the problem is that there are very few politicians who understand the issue, despite many experts trying for decades to explain it to them in different ways, hoping something will get through. This means that very few of them want to show leadership by making this the hill they're prepared to die on. The other part is that for most voters, this is not their most immediate problem. So when they email, write, talk to their elected representatives or candidates, they'll be talking about dog mess, or fox hunting, or rough sleepers, or B****t, or benefit sanctions, or school places.

So the politicians don't have it as a personal priority, and don't hear it as a priority from the electorate.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: oliver90owner on October 09, 2018, 09:30:06 AM
Is this because the human race is really not much more advanced, on average,  than a group (herd, flock, leap, suicide, legislature) of lemmings?


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: djs63 on October 09, 2018, 10:29:10 AM
Perhaps the subject should read.  “We’re cooked”

We have 7 grandchildren and in 20 years they might be starting families just as things get even worse  sh*tfan:


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: kristen on October 09, 2018, 04:42:05 PM
One (obvious, of course) thing I heard mention (Interviewer was asking what "ordinary people could do") was "Use an Green energy supplier" and the reason given was "That will create more demand".  Seems like a fair shout, so I've been badgering everyone I meet to do just that. "No good reason not to, no more expensive / costs you nothing, and you can pat yourself on the back"


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: Bodidly on October 10, 2018, 07:29:49 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report


As Aretha Franklin said in The Blues Brothers..............sheeeeiiit!

what's the chances anyone in power will take it seriously??  

Desp

Not high https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45798643

My expectations are pretty much nill and it doesn't look like I am going to be surprised anytime soon


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: brackwell on October 10, 2018, 08:33:58 AM
Not sure that we in the UK should be quite so pessimistic. In the UK we have made big steps in reducing our pollution  eg leccy production CO2 just a fraction of what it was.  EVs have arrived. Houseing has improved and will slowly continue.
Our total pollution at many levels is decreasing but not all and not as quick as if we were on a war footing, but the real problem is expanding population and consumption.  However we should not loose sight of the fact that in the western world the birth rate is below 2 (births per woman of child bearing age).


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: azps on October 10, 2018, 08:34:19 AM
I've long thought that the time lag/hysteresis for a system as large as the earth has to be many decades, or even centuries. So once you see it start to move, you ain't going to stop it, not reasonably, in any short time. 
So, yes, a degree of heating is inevitable. How much, I don't know. How long will it take to stop it? - again I don't know, but it will be decades, if not centuries.

The minute we stabilise emissions at net zero, we stop increasing the heat content of the earth, and climate settles down within 30 years, as long as we don't hit any tipping points. The minute we switch to net carbon negative, we start shortening that 30 years.

Every pound we spend now on mitigation, will save several pounds on adaptation in the future. And that applies up to very high levels of intervention: so we could globally shoot for net zero within 25 years, technically we could achieve it, and economically it saves us much more than it costs us.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: kristen on October 11, 2018, 10:34:13 AM
Houseing has improved and will slowly continue.

That's the one that I think we could fix overnight. Change building regs for all new build (and maybe some refits) to require better insulation. And PV on every roof and all that sort of stuff.


Building new housing stock that we know will have to be improved in next 20 years (heck, "at any time during its life"), is nuts.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: dimengineer on October 11, 2018, 06:32:42 PM
I've long thought that the time lag/hysteresis for a system as large as the earth has to be many decades, or even centuries. So once you see it start to move, you ain't going to stop it, not reasonably, in any short time. 
So, yes, a degree of heating is inevitable. How much, I don't know. How long will it take to stop it? - again I don't know, but it will be decades, if not centuries.

The minute we stabilise emissions at net zero, we stop increasing the heat content of the earth, and climate settles down within 30 years, as long as we don't hit any tipping points. The minute we switch to net carbon negative, we start shortening that 30 years.

Every pound we spend now on mitigation, will save several pounds on adaptation in the future. And that applies up to very high levels of intervention: so we could globally shoot for net zero within 25 years, technically we could achieve it, and economically it saves us much more than it costs us.

Why 30 years - where did you get that from? It may be in the right ball park, or may not. I kind of think it'll be much longer, so I'm curious as to the source of your 30 years.


Title: Re: We're f**ked!
Post by: azps on October 12, 2018, 06:50:27 AM
Why 30 years - where did you get that from? It may be in the right ball park, or may not.

Because that's about the time it takes for the full manifestation of a change in equilibrium heat content to play out into the climate, assuming no critical tipping points have been passed.

But I believe that we won't get to net zero, then stop. I believe we'll get to net zero, then go carbon negative for some time, because the economics will make it obvious that this is the right thing to do - it reduces the ongoing damage costs significantly.