Navitron Renewable Energy and Sustainability Forum

Announcements & News => Media Watch => Topic started by: stannn on March 16, 2019, 07:04:40 AM



Title: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: stannn on March 16, 2019, 07:04:40 AM
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/03/13/itrpv-tenth-edition-module-prices-fell-almost-a-third-in-2018/


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: linesrg on March 16, 2019, 01:15:00 PM
Good Afternoon All,

As it happens I have just purchased some brand new branded Tier 1 panels which have come in at a mere £0.27 per watt to my door.

A way back in time (October 2007) I bought some, at the time bargain buy, discounted BP380U panels at £268 each from a firm who had imported 1500 of them (my first system was 2off 6 x BP380's into a Soladin 600). Allowing for the 35% inflation over the intervening period that would make those panels £4.52 per watt to my door.

From my simple calculations panels are now 6% the cost they were back in October 2007.............

Regards

Richard


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: stannn on March 16, 2019, 01:46:14 PM
So, thatís the panels sorted. Does anyone know why the inverters are still expensive?
Stan


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: linesrg on March 16, 2019, 02:14:01 PM
Stann,

A good question as similar increases in scale must also apply..................

Regards

Richard


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: GarethC on March 17, 2019, 08:55:49 AM
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-pv-cost-data#history

These data are due to be updated in May. Be great if the trend mentioned here is reflected, as these figures to the beginning of March were slowly going in the wrong direction. I do wonder if there are price non linearities to demand. If we do get a 4kW install down to significantly sub £5k, I wonder if many people would go for it even though the financial returns still weren't stellar.


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: azps on March 17, 2019, 09:20:19 AM
Be great if the trend mentioned here is reflected, as these figures to the beginning of March were slowly going in the wrong direction. I do wonder if there are price non linearities to demand. I

Non-linearities, non-mononicities too - the PV supply chain has seen temporary reversals in the long-term trend, on and off, since before I was first involved in the industry (1992). The long-term trend is, and will remain, downward in price. We could still get a year of rising prices some time, or 3 years of flatlining prices if we get another commodities boom like in the noughties.


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: brackwell on March 17, 2019, 09:30:45 AM
I would have thought that a 4kw install was not more than £4K ??

Panels,inverter,rails etc £2000
Scaffolding  £500
Labour  £500
Profit £1000

4kw system giving 4000kwh/yr replacing say 2000 kwh previously purchased ie a saving of 2000 x 16p = £320/yr.  This gives a return of £320/£4000 = 8% return tax free and increasing !!

If anybody knows how to achieve a guareentteed return greater than 8% tax free can they please PM me.

Ken


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: GarethC on March 17, 2019, 11:57:01 AM
Well the stats say that in march last year the median cost for a 4kW install was probably nearer £6k than £5k.

Also, even if you could get a £4k install, while 8% would be viewed as an amazing return for a liquid asset (e.g. an ISA), I'm worried it's not quite enough for a sunk asset. Less financially literate households would think "that's going to take more than 12 years to pay for itself).

However, once you do get down to £4k, I think an increasing number of households would think" sod it, that's not that much money, let's just go for it."


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: linesrg on March 17, 2019, 12:31:28 PM
GarethC,

I think an awful lot of households would still consider £4k a lot of money. It might be a more attractive proposition if the £4k was available as a Government sponsored interest free loan?

The Government has committed itself to meeting certain climate change agreements so has a vested interest in promoting appropriate schemes?

Regards

Richard


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: knighty on March 17, 2019, 05:20:29 PM
I can't understand why new build houses aren't covered in PV

scaffolding is already up, forklifts etc. ready to go, hose being wired up anyway, mains connection going in fresh etc. etc. etc.  big reduction in costs, and should be a decent selling point

there should be some kind of government incentive to back it, maybe a reduction in stamp duty for the buyer?


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: linesrg on March 17, 2019, 06:13:48 PM
knighty,

I now we need to keep politics out of the forum but I can't help wondering what things our politicians might have been focusing on if it wasn't massive amount of time that appears to have been expended through the B word.....

Regards

Richard


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: GarethC on March 17, 2019, 06:30:52 PM
@Richard I don't disagree with you. Average households just don't have much spare cash. For that reason I just can't see small scale installations ever being a large part of the picture. Declining module prices are much bigger news for utility scale installations.

On the subject of government incentives, with public finances still precarious, I would be more comfortable with the government directing subsidies towards areas that will be a large part of the picture such as offshore wind.


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: brackwell on March 18, 2019, 09:02:35 AM
It has been my observation that subsidies do not reduce the price to the customer and that everytime a subsidy is removed or reduced the final price just stays the same.

Its no good looking back with PV as it is a fast moving beast.  As the thread says panel prices have reduced in the past yr but this is unlikely to to reflected in current stastics but shortly the FITS and export will cease and then what will happen?  Without the costs to installers of the FITS (registration,insurance,deposit) then it will become a competant persons job and everything considered this could become a £4K job.

Ken


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: brackwell on March 18, 2019, 01:59:25 PM
Forgot but recently saw a advert in AUSTRALIA newspaper a 3.7kwp system for A$ 5700 = £3078 !!

PS our panel prices are still inflated EU prices.


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: GarethC on March 18, 2019, 04:49:52 PM
Now that surely -does- make PV in Oz a financial no brainer, with the (I believe) high leccy costs, greater insolation and more helpful pattern of generation.


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: kristen on March 27, 2019, 12:09:09 PM
I can't help wondering what things our politicians might have been focusing on if it wasn't massive amount of time that appears to have been expended through the B word.....

To my mind that's just a recent distraction; Lobbying and Vested Interest more likely the problem.  I think all New Build should be Passive House - 7% extra capital cost and close to zero heating cost ... for the lifetime of the building ... and health benefits that would reduce sick-days and be reflected in GDP.  Stick PV on the roof, as you suggest, and the combination must make a dramatic difference, over time, to how much energy we have to import, or produce, for domestic consumption.  Reduces all the problems that huge balance of payments difference e.g. with Arabia causes, let alone if we decide to go to war to "protect supply" ..

... and of course because we are not doing that all the poor people that are buying New Builds will be having the huge cost, and turmoil, of having to upgrade them in the future.

I was going to say "don't get me started" ... bit late though, sorry about that, I'll get my coat :)


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: dimengineer on March 27, 2019, 02:01:05 PM
I'd point out that they wont face the turmoil in the future - they just wont do it at all! They will just grumble.

The other point perhaps is that an awful lot of people won't put up (or aren't prepared to) with a Passive House. They will want Gas Central Heating, Be able to open windows, turn off the MHRV then complain about the damp.

Irrational, perhaps, but there is a long slow education process to go through first


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: dimengineer on March 27, 2019, 02:03:29 PM
And an easier & cheaper install, on your large bungalow roof


Title: Re: PV module prices fell by almost one third in 2018.
Post by: kristen on March 27, 2019, 02:55:03 PM
The other point perhaps is that an awful lot of people won't put up (or aren't prepared to) with a Passive House.

We have new (last few years) social housing in the village. A knock-down-rebuild of what was there before ("council houses" I presume). Solar Panels on roof and I think the central heating is ground-source ... the occupants say it is far too hot in winter and have the windows open. No idea if it is badly designed, lack of education, config issues, or Subsidy-Kickback that favours "unmetered, over use/abuse" for max subsidy ... so you may well be right.

But we haven't had a single person here who wasn't impressed, including some who arrived  for a look-see sceptical (e.g Architect for their cherished project was anti with a list of negative points "Do you want to live in a plastic bag"), and others who had no knowledge of Passive House who then went on to build and move into a Passive House and are now champions of their own.

The only problem with opening a window is that in Summer you let heat in, and in Winter you let heat out :) On days when it isn't Arctic / Baking then by all means ... but after you deal with the dust and flies that come in those folk may well decide that the lovely MVHR air quality is actually a better deal. I don't know how much air the MVHR pumps through, but I suspect its on a par with a draughty old Georgian wreck :)

We have heating in ours because we already had (Biomass) boiler in old part of the house, so we are able to keep it at a toasty 22C in winter for which the heating effort is minute (but needs a heat source of course - getting a dozen mates round each cold Winters evening would do just as well ...)