Navitron Renewable Energy and Sustainability Forum

General Renewable Topics => General Discussion => Topic started by: Zarch on May 23, 2019, 09:21:55 AM



Title: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on May 23, 2019, 09:21:55 AM
The Octopus Energy Agile tariff has really piqued my interest in time of use tariffs using Smart Meters.

Whilst you could grab bits and pieces of historical data from Octopus about 'Agile' it was a bit limited. ie it didn't show all DNO areas and wasn't complete back to Feb 2018.

So i've written a few scripts and pulled all the data in to one place.
  • All 30 minute data from all 14 DNOs going to back to the first day of the Agile tariff (Feb 19th 2018)..
  • The data also updates at 5pm each day after Octopus have released their next day's figures

I've then layered Grafana graphs on top so you can visualise the data yourself on my new website.

Plus, there is a Google Spreadsheet with all the historical data on.

had to scrap this as I quickly broke the 2 million cell limit on Google Sheets!!

https://www.energy-stats.uk/

I would be interested in people's thoughts on the project.

What could be done better?
What else would people like to see in terms of graphs?
Is this stuff useful?
Do you think the tariff could work for you?

I'm hoping to expand the project into their GO tariff as well as their new Agile Export figures too.

Cheers.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Tinbum on May 23, 2019, 09:49:54 AM
Looks really good. As a very low user and on 3 phase I dont think it would work for me though.

I've always been interested to know how energy prices vary around the country.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on May 23, 2019, 09:52:09 AM
Looks really good. As a very low user and on 3 phase I dont think it would work for me though.

I've always been interested to know how energy prices vary around the country.

Thank you.   Yeah, why does London always have the cheapest pricing and poor old Northern Scotland seems to kop for the highest pricing?


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: azps on May 23, 2019, 10:01:09 AM
Thank you.   Yeah, why does London always have the cheapest pricing and poor old Northern Scotland seems to kop for the highest pricing?

Brilliant, thank you, that's a lovely resource.

How do Octopus Agile customers interact with the variable pricing? How much advanced notice do they get, and in what form? Mobile app notifications or something?

re regional pricing - high density of customers. Unit cost of the grid per customer is very cheap in London. And very very high in rural Scotland.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on May 23, 2019, 10:12:22 AM
I'm with Octopus, but not on Agile yet....... awaiting smart meter install.

They have an app and you can also get the figures logging in to your account as well as using the API.

And you can connect to their tariff and use IFTTT too to control your devices.
https://octopus.energy/ifttt/
https://ifttt.com/search/query/octopus

They provide all of tomorrows pricing at around 5pm the previous day, so you can make plans if there is really cheap/high pricing.

I really think time of use tariffs are the future when combined with smart devices and things like IFTTT.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on May 23, 2019, 10:15:20 AM
My next project is to add Variable / Agile Solar Export pricing history to the website..... which is Octopus next big thing.

https://octopus.energy/blog/outgoing/


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Stig on May 23, 2019, 10:20:11 AM
Interesting to see that weekend prices are much the same as weekday prices, I'd have expected to see a marked difference as other providers have occasionally offered free electricity on Saturdays etc.


As another low user the standing charge makes it more expensive for me (c.f. Ebico) especially as I don't have storage heaters or EV but do have PV.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Tinbum on May 23, 2019, 10:38:37 AM
Looks really good. As a very low user and on 3 phase I dont think it would work for me though.

I've always been interested to know how energy prices vary around the country.

Thank you.   Yeah, why does London always have the cheapest pricing and poor old Northern Scotland seems to kop for the highest pricing?

Thankfully I'm in Yorkshire. ;D


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on May 23, 2019, 11:39:46 AM
This is interesting, will take a look. I'm an Octopus E7 customer, will see if the Agile tariff makes any sense for me.



Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: jtp10000 on May 24, 2019, 10:03:09 AM
Awesome work thank you. Would be great to see how it changes across the seasons as you get more data.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on May 24, 2019, 04:08:12 PM
Awesome work thank you. Would be great to see how it changes across the seasons as you get more data.

I've got all the data going back to Feb 2018, but there is only so much of it you can show on one page.

Although you can see the spread through months by clicking on your region and then looking at the third graph. 
This shows minimum, average and maximum prices for each day of the past 365 days.

Hope this helps.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on May 27, 2019, 11:33:59 AM
Just had a look at the most recent data.

Interesting, overnight last night Agile had a low of 3.11p per unit. It was no higher than 6p from midnight through to 6am, then 7p through the most of today.

I think alongside a small battery to get you over the 4pm to 7pm (20p to 23p per unit today) period if solar can't cover it, this could be a decent option for many people?

Its just about finding the right combo for your circumstances that will allow the best savings (tariff, solar, battery, ev, immersion, usage habits!)


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: azps on May 27, 2019, 12:06:03 PM
Just had a look at the most recent data.

Interesting, overnight last night Agile had a low of 3.11p per unit. It was no higher than 6p from midnight through to 6am, then 7p through the most of today.

Yup, it's an unusual day. Very low demand (19 GW overnight, which is about as low as it gets), with very high winds, so very low wholesale prices. And now we've got low-ish demand (31 GW), and a decent showing from both wind and PV (about 5.7 GW each) and plenty of cheap imports too.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: samss on May 27, 2019, 08:37:35 PM
Looks really good. As a very low user and on 3 phase I dont think it would work for me though.

Yeah they ignored me after promising to switch, then decided they couldn't because i am a 3phase customer. It's a shame, i would just about have been happy to have 2 phases disconnected to use Agile, but they stopped responding to my emails!



Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on May 28, 2019, 08:23:03 AM
Just had a look at the most recent data.

Interesting, overnight last night Agile had a low of 3.11p per unit. It was no higher than 6p from midnight through to 6am, then 7p through the most of today.

Yup, it's an unusual day. Very low demand (19 GW overnight, which is about as low as it gets), with very high winds, so very low wholesale prices. And now we've got low-ish demand (31 GW), and a decent showing from both wind and PV (about 5.7 GW each) and plenty of cheap imports too.

Brilliant data, thanks.

I bet there is some correlation between 'how' its generating, where its coming from and the actual demand around their pricing.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: jtp10000 on May 28, 2019, 10:22:44 AM
Just had a look at the most recent data.

Interesting, overnight last night Agile had a low of 3.11p per unit. It was no higher than 6p from midnight through to 6am, then 7p through the most of today.

I think alongside a small battery to get you over the 4pm to 7pm (20p to 23p per unit today) period if solar can't cover it, this could be a decent option for many people?

Its just about finding the right combo for your circumstances that will allow the best savings (tariff, solar, battery, ev, immersion, usage habits!)

Interesting point. Of course if you approach like this it totally changes the maths of getting a battery.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on May 28, 2019, 01:13:06 PM
I've added a simple single page showing what the Go tariff looks like in graph form as well as the current "out of the 5p four hour slot" pricing across the UK.

https://www.energy-stats.uk/octopus-go-tariff/


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on June 02, 2019, 08:44:15 AM
Electricity was as low at 2.1p overnight on Agile.....   exhappy:

(https://i.postimg.cc/5NGFBWZx/Agile.png)

https://www.energy-stats.uk/


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on June 07, 2019, 10:59:08 AM
Hi all,

I'm pleased to announce an update to my little home-brew website; Go versus Agile

This was actually a feature request from a user so I was happy to oblige.

There are two new graphs for each of the 14 UK regions.

1. Go versus Agile (00:30 to 04:30 only) for the last 365 days
2. Last 7 days of full daily pricing from both tariffs

https://www.energy-stats.uk/octopus-go-versus-agile/ (https://www.energy-stats.uk/octopus-go-versus-agile/)

I think if you have an EV then Go seems to win hands down with its fixed 5p for 4 hours each and every day.

If you have Solar PV and/or maybe a battery that can get you over the 4pm to 7pm period then I think Agile could well be the cheaper option?

But everyone has different usage patterns and configurations, so ultimately the decision is up to you.

These 'time of use' tariffs in conjunction with smart meters are surely the future of electricity provision?

Hope you are finding this data useful?  Please let me know your thoughts etc.

Hoping to add some more features in the coming weeks.  Next up I want to look at the new Outgoing / Export tariffs.

Cheers.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on June 19, 2019, 01:00:19 PM
New Website Update - Octopus Outgoing / Export tariff historical and current data.
This data is just what those Solar PV owners have been waiting for.

https://www.energy-stats.uk/

Discussion points and my notes/thoughts for Octopus Outgoing Export Tariffs

- Their fixed 5.5p per kWh fixed outgoing is a 2.2% increase over current Feed in Tariff (FIT) based 5.38p.

- These Outgoing tariffs only replace the 'export' element of the FIT.  Your generation payments will still come from your registered FIT supplier.

- Both Fixed and Agile Outgoing are "actual" export rather than "deemed" 50% as per FIT.

- You are likely better to stay put on deemed 50% if your export less than 50% of what you generate. ie, if you have immersion diversion, EV or other high daytime usage.

- If you export more than 50% of what you generate the maths suggest you'd be better off on an 'actual' export tariff. The could well be the case with larger Solar installs.

- Octopus add credit to your bill each day for your exports. Assuming you spend more on "inbound" energy than you earn on "outbound" they'll aim to set direct debits at a level consistent with the estimated annual net amount. If you're in credit you can withdraw at will online. (From Octopus CEO)

- In comparison current FIT payments are usually every 3 months.

- You need to be on an Octopus import tariff to have one of their export tariffs.

- It will be very interesting to see the Agile Outgoing price through the winter months.  The outgoing tariffs only started on 19th May 2019, so we have little historical data to analyse.

- Whilst its easy to claim 11p per unit and above between 4pm and 7pm during the summer because of late sunset times, its going to be impossible through the winter months with 4pm sunsets.

- Moving to Octopus requires a 12 month commitment for FIT payments.  This is across the board, you can only move FIT supplier once a year.

- But this does not apply to 'export' supplier.  You can move when you want.  Plus, you can freely move between Fixed and Agile Outgoing / Export plans once with Octopus.

- So maybe there is opportunity to crunch the numbers to see if Fixed or Agile are better suited at different times of the year?

- Will the Octopus Fixed Outgoing tariff increase with inflation as per the current FIT rewards?

- The FAQ says there is nothing stopping you charging a battery using Solar during the day for free then selling back that energy between 4pm and 7pm for 11p+.

https://octopus.energy/outgoing/
https://octopus.energy/blog/outgoing/

Find all the Outgoing current/historical stats and pricing at https://www.energy-stats.uk/

If you have any ideas of what else you'd like to see please let me know.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: JohnS on June 19, 2019, 01:43:43 PM
These comments are no longer relevant as the above post has been edited to correct the error

New Website Update - Octopus Outgoing / Export tariff historical and current data.
This data is just what those Solar PV owners have been waiting for.

https://www.energy-stats.uk/

Discussion points and my notes/thoughts for Octopus Outgoing Export Tariffs


- Both Fixed and Agile Outgoing are "actual" export rather than "deemed" 50% as per FIT.

- You are likely better to stay put on deemed 50% if your export more than 50% of what you generate. ie, if you have immersion diversion, EV or other high daytime usage.

- If you use less than 50% of want you generate the maths suggest you'd be better off on an 'actual' export tariff.  The could well be the case with larger Solar installs.


If you have any ideas of what else you'd like to see please let me know.

Your analysis is confusing me.

First scenario - if your export more than 50% of what you generate - surely it is better to be paid per unit of export rather than just for 50%

Second scenario - If you use less than 50% of want what you generate - this is the same as the first scenario.  If you use less than 50%, you export more that 50%.

Or is my brain not working?

Also, does the 5.5p payment also apply to those on the older 3p plus inflation export tariff?


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on June 19, 2019, 03:02:21 PM
Thanks John.  I've updated the text.

I knew what I wanted to say, just got a little confused typing it.....  banghead:

Hope the update is a bit clearer?

With regard the older export tariffs, I've contacted Octopus to find out..... will let you know.

April 2010 to 30 July 2012: 3.82p
On or after 1 August 2012: 5.38p



Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: JohnS on June 19, 2019, 03:44:14 PM
Zach
It makes sense now.
John


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on June 19, 2019, 08:21:22 PM
Also, does the 5.5p payment also apply to those on the older 3p plus inflation export tariff?


John,

I asked Octopus the following..... hope this helps.

"Another question about Outgoing tariffs. There are two FIT export tariffs dependant on install date. 

April 2010 to 30 July 2012: 3.82p
On or after 1 August 2012: 5.38p

Can pre-July 2012 installs join Outgoing? Do they get 5.5p per kWh / Agile pricing?"

Their reply was:

Ok, those are the FiT rates you’ve quoted there. Outgoing has just the two rates. You can switch to Outgoing (either 5.5 or Agile version) irrespective of which FiT rate you have. Hope that helps - but do drop us a DM / message if you have any questions & we can go through everything.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: JohnS on June 19, 2019, 08:31:07 PM
Thanks.
It looks a great deal for pre 2012 installs


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on June 29, 2019, 08:26:17 PM
More crazy Agile prices overnight.  Down as low at 1.26p per unit and below 8p through most of tomorrow. :)

https://www.energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-yorkshire/


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on July 12, 2019, 08:54:32 AM
Website update:

As Octopus Energy outgoing tariff (ie the FIT export replacement) tariff is now 2 months old i'm now showing 60 days data from the Agile version of the tariff.

Hopefully more info for those considering moving away from FIT export payments or for new installs needing someone to take their excess generation.

Full details over on the site.  https://www.energy-stats.uk


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: jtp10000 on July 12, 2019, 02:44:57 PM
Interesting to see that the overnight tariff is rarely near the 5p Octopus Go Level.
It would be great to do a calc to see how cheap a house battery would need to be to make a 5 year payback on Agility. The simple approach might be a battery that would only need to bridge those expensive 2.5 hours in the evening and then the rest of the time you are on 7p.kwh ish. I should try. I can't believe it is that far off before it is a no brainer.
BUT then of course how quickly will the prices start evening out if lots of people get batteries, killing your 5 year payback. Also the utilities would be mad, after all the SMETS installations & data, to not start providing substantial incentives that discourage people charging their cars at 6pm.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Philip R on July 12, 2019, 11:45:04 PM
jtp,
As more smets meter data is analysed, the power companies will be able to dis incentivise those whom charge their cars at evening peak times. i.e. Switch them off using the meter internal contactor. In my previous employment, the factory where I worked, had some very large loads which if turned on or used at the wrong time, would lead to the business being charged a punitive rate for electricity for the next 3 months. A very strong incentive. That is why the diesel generators were fired up. Expensive, but cheaper than the punitive tariff.
Philip R


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: russ_fae_fyvie on July 21, 2019, 07:39:37 PM
As we are about to move into the new house I have just switched to Octopus from SSE and once on I believe the Smart Meter follows, been interesting reading the above (the bits I understood!) but what I want to try to do is progress to Agile (if possible) and program my Powerwall 2 to charge up (if needed) at certain cheap times.

At the moment I am just getting to grips with the PV and Tesla setup, I do know that in the last week 98% of the power used in the house is 'Self Generated', I know we aren't in yet but the ASHP is working along with the UFH and generally using 200 w which seems good. I know things will change once the Winter comes along so that's why I'm looking to get cheap rate charging on the battery and from what I can see above its a good possibility.

Still watching with interest!


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Fintray on July 21, 2019, 09:19:24 PM
Hi Russ

Just waiting for my smart meter install to get on to the agile outgoing tariff, I'll let you know how I get on.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on July 22, 2019, 09:58:32 AM
As we are about to move into the new house I have just switched to Octopus from SSE and once on I believe the Smart Meter follows, been interesting reading the above (the bits I understood!) but what I want to try to do is progress to Agile (if possible) and program my Powerwall 2 to charge up (if needed) at certain cheap times.

At the moment I am just getting to grips with the PV and Tesla setup, I do know that in the last week 98% of the power used in the house is 'Self Generated', I know we aren't in yet but the ASHP is working along with the UFH and generally using 200 w which seems good. I know things will change once the Winter comes along so that's why I'm looking to get cheap rate charging on the battery and from what I can see above its a good possibility.

Still watching with interest!
Do keep us updated.

I think the key to making best use of these tariffs is the hardware/battery manufacturers software being up to the job.  ie charge when free (solar) or low price (Agile/Go) then export back when best price (agile outgoing).   And hopefully do all this in the background with little input.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on August 13, 2019, 01:04:25 PM
As their Export tariff (Outgoing) is coming up to 3 months old I've updated the site to show up to 90 days data now.

https://www.energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-outgoing-export/


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on August 16, 2019, 06:18:29 PM
Agile pricing down as low at 1.68p per unit at 7am.

They'll be paying us to use it soon!!  ;D

https://www.energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-yorkshire/


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: brackwell on August 17, 2019, 08:49:19 AM
Wait till winter comes.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on August 17, 2019, 06:23:40 PM
1.05p per unit coming up overnight..... must be super windy and those turbines meaning lots of surplus energy when most folk don't need it!

I'm sure it will still be windy in winter??


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: nowty on August 17, 2019, 07:40:41 PM
1.05p per unit coming up overnight..... must be super windy and those turbines meaning lots of surplus energy when most folk don't need it!

I'm sure it will still be windy in winter??

Yes, generally more windy in winter but there will be a LOT more demand and less solar so normally higher prices.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on August 30, 2019, 08:43:10 AM
The Agile tariff is now over 18 months old and I was looking back and the history of the pricing yesterday.  Geek that I am!!  exhappy:

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48646444467_194124fcc2_c.jpg)

So, what's driving the price down?

  • More renewables? ie 24hr wind contribution? and more Solar?
  • Overall downward trend in wholesale pricing? (driven by low gas prices?)
  • Octopus getting a better handle on pricing versus demand versus profitability?

Or a combination of everything? :D


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on September 22, 2019, 03:24:11 PM
Been a while since I posted some Agile prices...... here's last night.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48775457062_a8f77be085_z.jpg)

5p per unit for around 6 hours straight from midnight onwards.

This is certainly a growing trend.  exhappy:


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: citrus on October 02, 2019, 09:45:36 AM
Also, does the 5.5p payment also apply to those on the older 3p plus inflation export tariff?


John,

I asked Octopus the following..... hope this helps.

"Another question about Outgoing tariffs. There are two FIT export tariffs dependant on install date. 

April 2010 to 30 July 2012: 3.82p
On or after 1 August 2012: 5.38p

Can pre-July 2012 installs join Outgoing? Do they get 5.5p per kWh / Agile pricing?"

Their reply was:

Ok, those are the FiT rates you’ve quoted there. Outgoing has just the two rates. You can switch to Outgoing (either 5.5 or Agile version) irrespective of which FiT rate you have. Hope that helps - but do drop us a DM / message if you have any questions & we can go through everything.


Bit late to this party but very interested in the numbers and will read and re-read this some more .

I have a 3.76kw install from August 2011 (croydon area) and been stuck with SSE since day one  .. but thinking of an EV car but the import/export looks like an interesting game to play.



Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: oliver90owner on October 02, 2019, 01:09:04 PM
Watch something like gridwatch.templar.  Fossil fuel usage is the driver, I think - apart from demand.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: phoooby on October 02, 2019, 06:43:41 PM
Octopus have now teamed up with Tesla to give an offering for those with a Tesla car, solar and powerwall. Not sure of the deatails of how it will work but they seem to have an import rate of 8p (24/7) and an export rate of 7p. I assume there will be some controls for them to export from powerwall to the grid at peak times but not sure how that will work and I am not even sure Tesla allow PW export. Its not for me as I dont have a Tesla wall box (the other requirement, even though it is a dumb charger). Currently using zappi and Go with 79%+ of peak times (0430 to 1230) covered by PV and powerwall. 


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on October 10, 2019, 05:43:22 PM
LOW, LOW, LOW.

One-third of a penny per unit tonight!!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48876469732_a5c95623af_z.jpg)


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: citrus on October 11, 2019, 10:43:22 AM
one question on this

I am still with SSE for my exports and have been since day 1

The octupus outgoing carrot  ... is the flat rate being higher than I currently make

"As the FiT Export rate is now 5.38pence and our flat rate is 5.5pence"

It doesnt look much of a carrot and trouble is what is to stop them trimming that down  at some future point ?


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Westie on October 11, 2019, 11:32:01 AM
one question on this

I am still with SSE for my exports and have been since day 1

The octupus outgoing carrot  ... is the flat rate being higher than I currently make

"As the FiT Export rate is now 5.38pence and our flat rate is 5.5pence"

It doesnt look much of a carrot and trouble is what is to stop them trimming that down  at some future point ?

IIRC for the remainder of your FiT agreement the export rate is index linked in the same way the generation rate is, so at 5.5p I see no incentive to switch at all.



Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Westie on October 11, 2019, 12:05:50 PM
Hmmm..  I just realised that I've ended up with Octopus by default as they've just acquired Co-op energy, who had previously acquired UK Power and Flow Energy. 

So, how could i utilise their Agile tarrif,  is there a system available to trigger devices capable of storing the cheap energy eg. storage heating, water heating, battery storage?

Seems to be a huge potential here if such a system could be allied with a short term weather forecast to predict likley energy demand in the next 24H.

 





Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on October 11, 2019, 12:29:47 PM
Agile will at a minimum send you text messages to tell you what the pricing is going to be so you get direct reminiders/instructions that it might be a good idea to turn on the tumble dryer at 3am.
Octopus has made its API open to people so you can develop your own apps to control smart devices in response to Octopus pricing data using If This Then That.
If you have an EV, I think you can make smart chargers like Zappi and/or the Ohme Smart cable work to automatically charge your car when its cheap.





Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Countrypaul on October 11, 2019, 12:37:57 PM
Agile will at a minimum send you text messages to tell you what the pricing is going to be so you get direct reminiders/instructions that it might be a good idea to turn on the tumble dryer at 3am.


But probably not a good if you have a tumble dryer made by Whirlpool...  sh*tfan:

(Can't see a house burning icon)


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on October 11, 2019, 02:11:28 PM
 :hysteria

Agile will at a minimum send you text messages to tell you what the pricing is going to be so you get direct reminiders/instructions that it might be a good idea to turn on the tumble dryer at 3am.


But probably not a good if you have a tumble dryer made by Whirlpool...  sh*tfan:

(Can't see a house burning icon)


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: brackwell on October 11, 2019, 02:26:17 PM

If you have an EV, I think you can make smart chargers like Zappi and/or the Ohme Smart cable work to automatically charge your car when its cheap.


Can one ? never heard that mentioned.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Westie on October 11, 2019, 04:20:15 PM

If you have an EV, I think you can make smart chargers like Zappi and/or the Ohme Smart cable work to automatically charge your car when its cheap.


Can one ? never heard that mentioned.

Seems so.....     

https://www.octopusev.com/

I'm impressed that Octopus really seem to be getting stuck in.



Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: brackwell on October 11, 2019, 05:16:00 PM
I was a bit bored until i found this

"Unfortunately, we do not yet support solar integrations, but we are working on it."

Imagine if they could take notice of solar and import/export house flows as well !

Ken


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on October 13, 2019, 03:02:58 PM
one question on this

I am still with SSE for my exports and have been since day 1

The octupus outgoing carrot  ... is the flat rate being higher than I currently make

"As the FiT Export rate is now 5.38pence and our flat rate is 5.5pence"

It doesnt look much of a carrot and trouble is what is to stop them trimming that down  at some future point ?

One would 'assume' that Octopus would also increase there rate in line with the FIT rate.  It wouldn't make any sense to fall behind the FIT rate.

Also, the number one differential between FIT and Octopus is deemed 50%.
FIT is Deemed 50%
Octopus is actual export...... so if you don't use much of what you generate there is something to consider there.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on November 08, 2019, 08:31:05 AM
The latest fruits of my coding labour is a new Twitter account (@energystatsuk) that tweets out and graphs the next days Octopus Agile tariff data each evening.

https://twitter.com/energystatsuk

Its work in progress, so if anyone has any thoughts or comments please let me know.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49032008968_14150e5c1d_z.jpg)


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on November 08, 2019, 09:00:07 AM
Nice!


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on December 07, 2019, 07:12:41 PM
Utter Madness on Octopus Agile tariff tonight.

Over 5 hours of negative pricing, so you GET PAID to use as much electricity as you want.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49183873586_b326dae0c3_z.jpg)

Min: -1.8p (02:30)
Max: 25.3p (17:00)
Average: 6.8p
Av Excl Peak: 4.2p
Go Period (0030-0430): -0.8p
Peak Time (1600-1900): 24.0p

Stats via https://www.energy-stats.uk/

Follow on Twitter: @energystatsuk


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on December 07, 2019, 11:02:37 PM
That will be what 14GW of wind and 7.5GW of nuclear does on the grid overnight!  “Please use this electricity”


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: RIT on December 07, 2019, 11:40:23 PM
I think this is where their current rate calculation should be changed so that their coefficient only applies when they have a positive cost of energy.

Currently, negative energy costs that benefit a few people who can run large loads for a few hours will hit with Octupus operational costs that then must be covered by all their customers.

From a PR point of view being able to say that electricity is free is a major win, having others pay to provide below zero electricity is debatable.



Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on December 08, 2019, 04:13:49 PM
It gets even better tonight........ get paid almost 5p per unit!!!

What is this windy madness!!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49188300636_f66c7f5904_z.jpg)


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: phoooby on December 08, 2019, 06:51:31 PM
Quote
I think this is where their current rate calculation should be changed so that their coefficient only applies when they have a positive cost of energy.

Currently, negative energy costs that benefit a few people who can run large loads for a few hours will hit with Octupus operational costs that then must be covered by all their customers.

From a PR point of view being able to say that electricity is free is a major win, having others pay to provide below zero electricity is debatable.

But having negative pricing helps people fund storage/ev's which help overall. People with storage in particular will be avoiding the 4-8pm peak for cost purposes but this also assists by reducing peak demand from the grid. Anything to assist take up of home storage has to be a good thing for the grid and carbon emissions as a whole.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: RIT on December 08, 2019, 07:28:49 PM
Quote
I think this is where their current rate calculation should be changed so that their coefficient only applies when they have a positive cost of energy.

Currently, negative energy costs that benefit a few people who can run large loads for a few hours will hit with Octupus operational costs that then must be covered by all their customers.

From a PR point of view being able to say that electricity is free is a major win, having others pay to provide below zero electricity is debatable.

But having negative pricing helps people fund storage/ev's which help overall. People with storage in particular will be avoiding the 4-8pm peak for cost purposes but this also assists by reducing peak demand from the grid. Anything to assist take up of home storage has to be a good thing for the grid and carbon emissions as a whole.

I've no problems with electricity being sold at below a zero cost (I'm on the Agile tariff). The issue is that the pricing structure of the tariff is quoted as being 'coefficient x wholesale cost of electricity'. Where the coefficient is a value to cover all the costs that Octopus incurs and a profit margin so that they can stay in business. So at the moment if they are purchasing electricity at say -2p per kWh they are selling to consumers at between -4p and -4.4p, with Octopus now making a business loss that must be covered by charging its customers more at other times of the day. Don't forget that a fair amount of the cost that Octopus must cover by their coefficient value is to cover the contracts of differance that are enabling the negative priced electricity in the first place.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on December 08, 2019, 08:51:26 PM
So I got in touch with Octopus to see if I can try out Agile for a few weeks and if it doesn't work out for me could I switch back to Go without penalty.

They said yes, so I've just swapped from Go to Agile to get in on these plunge prices tonight!

Currently setting my PowerVault, ImmerSUN, washing machine and dishwasher all to run during the negative price period between 2.30 and 5.00am.  Let's see if it makes any difference...


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: bleem2k on December 08, 2019, 09:19:18 PM
Awesome work @Zarch - one minor (hopefuly) ask - could you make the origin / 0 line on the twitter graphs bold or red (or both!) Just some way at a glance you can see when it goes negative.

Thanks again for the great website... without it I wouldn't have even considered Octopus.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: RIT on December 08, 2019, 09:22:38 PM
Currently setting my PowerVault, ImmerSUN, washing machine and dishwasher all to run during the negative price period between 2.30 and 5.00am.  Let's see if it makes any difference...

Sadly we live in a world where most local fire services have the following statement

     "don't leave appliances such as dishwashers, tumble dryers and washing machines on when you're out or asleep".

It says a lot when we have to monitor costly devices so that as and when they go wrong we can run away quickly.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on December 08, 2019, 09:45:37 PM
Oh well if I burn to death overnight you’ll know why  :o


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: phoooby on December 08, 2019, 10:35:34 PM
RIT, I misunderstood you then. I haven't looked into the calculations but I assumed that Octopus were still making money with negative pricing.  I do wonder when or if  mandatory TOU will eventually come to everyone like we now all have water meters.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: RIT on December 09, 2019, 12:38:19 AM
RIT, I misunderstood you then. I haven't looked into the calculations but I assumed that Octopus were still making money with negative pricing.  I do wonder when or if  mandatory TOU will eventually come to everyone like we now all have water meters.

They don't make money if the calculation is as simple as the one they tell their customers. It may be that the reality is different.

My guess is that we can expect to see TOU tariffs become the norm with the next 10 years, otherwise, we will need to have a lot of spare generation capacity to cope with the peak evening demand as we switch to EVs and natural gas is dropped from new home designs. Between now and then a lot is going to change as there is already a focus on moving more of the network costs onto the standing charge and even Octopus current peak rate charges are currently often driven by them adding 12p to the cost of each kWh during the peak hours rather than just price increases by their supplier.

The one thing that seems very clear is that all this is going to happen without the politicians being open about the long term direction after all smart meters are still 'optional'.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on December 09, 2019, 07:26:43 AM
Well my house didn’t burn down, so all is good.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: brackwell on December 09, 2019, 07:43:35 AM
PS I dont have a water meter nor a smart meter.  Like smoking get to a certain % by one way or another and then when they make it compulsory there are not enough complainers to object and those who have changed are extolling the virtues.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Zarch on December 09, 2019, 08:27:10 AM
Awesome work @Zarch - one minor (hopefuly) ask - could you make the origin / 0 line on the twitter graphs bold or red (or both!) Just some way at a glance you can see when it goes negative.

Thanks again for the great website... without it I wouldn't have even considered Octopus.

Yep, realised over the weekend that my Twitter graphs don't handle the negative stuff very well.   :hysteria

Its on my to-do list to try and make it all look a bit more obvious when it goes negative.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on December 09, 2019, 09:13:55 AM
At what time of the day does Octopus publish its prices for the next 24 hour period on Agile?


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: bleem2k on December 09, 2019, 09:43:29 AM
4pm the day before (typically)

https://developer.octopus.energy/docs/api/

"Agile Octopus
If you’re using this API to query future unit-rates of the Agile Octopus product, note that day-ahead prices are normally created by 4pm in the Europe/London timezone. Furether, the market index used to calculate unit rates is based in the CET timezone (UTC+1) and so its “day” corresponds to 11pm to 11pm in UK time. Hence, if you query today’s unit rates before 4pm, you’ll get 46 results back rather than 48."


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on December 09, 2019, 10:20:37 AM
Thanks.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: dan_b on December 09, 2019, 04:03:40 PM
No negative pricing tonight, damn!  ::)


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: RIT on December 09, 2019, 05:28:16 PM
No negative pricing tonight, damn!  ::)

I don't think you can plan on them happening often. They basically need above-average temperatures and high winds.

The graphs over at gridwatch would seem to provide a strong indication of negative prices. Over the last week CCGT generation was pushed down by high levels of wind generation and when combined with the lower overall demand at the weekend we got our free power.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: nowty on December 09, 2019, 09:47:42 PM
So I got in touch with Octopus to see if I can try out Agile for a few weeks and if it doesn't work out for me could I switch back to Go without penalty.

They said yes, so I've just swapped from Go to Agile to get in on these plunge prices tonight!

You should be able to swap as there is no exit penalty, but you do risk the Go tariff changing to worse terms before you opt back in. Only once your on it, its guaranteed for 12 months.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: brackwell on December 10, 2019, 08:28:51 AM
The prices we see are the spot prices brought about by the necessaty to buy or sell to balance the supply/demand. The major contracts are done yrs,months and days ahead. If the suppliers produce/supply more than their contract then they have to sell on the open market hopefully to someone who is unable to fulfill their contract. The price will drop to the point where a deal can be done or increased demand can be stimulated eg EV,pumped storage,Interconnectors  or someone can reduce supply and buy at the cheaper spot price.  In one sense i guess EVs and other storage can easily act as a price stabaliser. 

People banking on negative prices are up against a very experienced trading system, but who knows these are changing times.


Title: Re: My Octopus Energy Agile & GO Tariff analysis website
Post by: Sprinter on December 10, 2019, 10:15:27 AM
I changed my charging schedules yesterday to have a look at how we cope with batteries between 16:00 > 19:00 peak period, i have not told the wife i have done this as it makes no difference what i say, advise, persuade or cajole, that woman is not for changing her ways  :(

But i guess that over the next few days of testing i will get an honest evaluation of how the batteries cope with this period, and based on what i see i may well switch to the agile tarrif, which will mean getting a smart meter fitted though.