Navitron Renewable Energy and Sustainability Forum

Announcements & News => Media Watch => Topic started by: stannn on June 12, 2019, 05:29:03 PM



Title: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: stannn on June 12, 2019, 05:29:03 PM
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/12/plug-in-hybrid-cars-have-as-much-longevity-as-betamax-and-minidiscs-stick-to-pure-electric/


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: RIT on June 12, 2019, 05:38:06 PM
"self-charging hybrids" is a far better marketing term or at least Lexus and Toyota seem to think so.

The one nice innovation around hybrids seems to be the small capacity configuration where the battery is a small boost unit which allows the standard engine to be better tuned for efficiency with the battery and electric motor providing improved acceleration and energy capture during braking. At the same time, the electric motor replaces the standard starter motor allowing far better stop/start management while stuck in traffic.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: kristen on June 12, 2019, 06:37:05 PM
I have a different view. Currently the BEV marked is battery-starved ... until Supply catches up with Demand I think it would be better to build 2x 35+kWh PHEV than 1x 70+kWh BEV

35kWh is 100 miles or so, and would take care of most people's regular daily use, with ICE providing unlimited range (albeit with a) small Petrol tank and b) extra maintenance for mechanicals)

I don't know to what extent BEV Range Anxiety is really a thing, after the first week or so of ownership owners seem to have got the hang of it, but PHEV would help provide "transition comfort" for anyone who is only not a buyer because of range-anxiety


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: Nickel2 on June 12, 2019, 09:23:07 PM
At the moment you can pick up an old petrol/diesel car for £300-£500, that will do another MOT or two if you are lucky. I wonder, what the equivalent EV will be in the future? Do you scrap the car if the battery goes west but the motor is good? What will become the new 'Beyond economical repair' ?


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: RIT on June 12, 2019, 10:31:14 PM
At the moment you can pick up an old petrol/diesel car for £300-£500, that will do another MOT or two if you are lucky. I wonder, what the equivalent EV will be in the future? Do you scrap the car if the battery goes west but the motor is good? What will become the new 'Beyond economical repair' ?

Its a growing issue with all modern cars, not just EVs. With the amount of electronics in a car, they are all coming with an expiry date as the original manufacturer can just withdraw the diagnostic tools and/or stop supplying parts that are designed to operate with just that models ECU. It is highly unlikely that in 40 years time anyone will be driving around in new 'classic' cars from this time regardless of them being EV, Hybrid or ICE.

As for an out of warranty EV with a duff battery, it would be scrap at the moment - the second-hand value of battery sets if you can find one does not make the process of transferring batteries around that viable. An old Ford engine normally found down a junkyard only has value to another Ford driver or its scrap metal value, rather a lot of people are out there looking to purchase batteries for other tasks.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: splyn on June 13, 2019, 05:04:16 AM

Its a growing issue with all modern cars, not just EVs. With the amount of electronics in a car, they are all coming with an expiry date as the original manufacturer can just withdraw the diagnostic tools and/or stop supplying parts that are designed to operate with just that models ECU. It is highly unlikely that in 40 years time anyone will be driving around in new 'classic' cars from this time regardless of them being EV, Hybrid or ICE.

Quite. 'The Irreplaceable Chip That Is "Bricking" Out-Of-Warranty Teslas'

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-14/irreplaceable-chip-bricking-out-warranty-teslas (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-14/irreplaceable-chip-bricking-out-warranty-teslas)

Welcome to the new 'rules'.

Of course there's a good chance that in 40 years time there won't be many driving anywhere in their own vehicles - it may be environmentally or economically unacceptable/unaffordable. Or the corporations who have bought up the privatized road infrastructure have determined that individual car ownership and usage does not give them the best ROI.

"Want to travel? Here are a variety of great value personal movement options exclusively available to you based on your recent browsing history". (Conditions and exclusions may apply - see very small print on filings on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”)

[EDIT] Brave new world...

 "The earliest customers who pulled the trigger on Tesla's entry-level Model 3 may want to enjoy their car's features to the fullest over the coming days. Those early vehicles shipped with unlocked software that effectively gave owners access to the more expensive Standard Range Plus car. Eventually, the company started shipping Model 3s with the features locked down from the get go. Now, the automaker has started warning customers via email that it's going to limit their vehicle's software and remove their access to the Plus features they've been enjoying in the next 10 days."

https://www.engadget.com/2019/06/08/tesla-model-3-software-downgrade/ (https://www.engadget.com/2019/06/08/tesla-model-3-software-downgrade/)


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: azps on June 13, 2019, 07:08:27 AM
I have a different view. Currently the BEV marked is battery-starved ... until Supply catches up with Demand I think it would be better to build 2x 35+kWh PHEV than 1x 70+kWh BEV

Nah, that's just investing in more fossil-fuel infrastructure. Something we should have been curtailing 40 years ago. The hybrid has missed its window, really, by a few decades.

Regarding EV batteries: rapid-growth markets routinely see these temporary supply bottlenecks. The PV market has been doing this on and off for decades. The bottleneck causes a temporary upward blip in prices. That brings new investment, and new capacity comes online at lower cost, and then the bottleneck goes, rapid growth continues, and prices continue on their long-term downwards trend.

One particular pattern I'm expecting to see with EVs, and has already started, is the growth in shared-ownership of vehicles. This will get a massive boost as automated driving gets properly established.

And that means that one EV could end up replacing 2-10 fossil cars.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: M on June 13, 2019, 07:18:37 AM
I have a different view. Currently the BEV marked is battery-starved ... until Supply catches up with Demand I think it would be better to build 2x 35+kWh PHEV than 1x 70+kWh BEV

35kWh is 100 miles or so, and would take care of most people's regular daily use, with ICE providing unlimited range (albeit with a) small Petrol tank and b) extra maintenance for mechanicals)

I don't know to what extent BEV Range Anxiety is really a thing, after the first week or so of ownership owners seem to have got the hang of it, but PHEV would help provide "transition comfort" for anyone who is only not a buyer because of range-anxiety

The issue seems to have already been decided, as the percentage of car sales that are PEV's (plug-in EV's) is growing, but within that BEV's are growing rapidly, whilst PHEV's are falling.

In cost terms, US analysis seems to show that the total cost of ownership of a BEV is less than that of an ICE, but PHEV's actually cost more, since they give smaller fuel savings, but are a more complex car to maintain as they retain all the ICE components.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: HalcyonRichard on June 13, 2019, 08:28:10 AM
I don't know to what extent BEV Range Anxiety is really a thing, after the first week or so of ownership owners seem to have got the hang of it, but PHEV would help provide "transition comfort" for anyone who is only not a buyer because of range-anxiety
Range anxiety does not exist. BEV's are pretty predictable for range. It's Charger anxiety that's the big problem. Will there be any chargers where I am going ? Will the charger be working ? Will the charger be blocked or ICE'ed ? Will someone be using the charger ? Will the charger have the right connector ? Too few chargers, too many single charger sites, chargers not reliable and chargers far too slow. I have driven BEV for three years and the charging infrastructure is the biggest PITA. No need for transition comfort just good solid reliable charging infrastructure.

Richard


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: brackwell on June 13, 2019, 09:12:00 AM
Whilst i agree the charging infrastructure needs to improve considerably range anxiety certainly does exist also,they are not mutually exclusive. Every ICE driver knows never to trust the fuel gauge so why should they immediately change their minds when stepping into a EV.  For most people running out of fuel is one of the worst things that can happen.  Why do people always ask "how far will it go" .  One has to have driven a EV for some time before building up the trust to run to ever lower charge levels.

PS I have had a EV for 3yrs and it has cost me nothing, having gone up in value more than the 2 tyres and a wiper cost. No maintenance and charged by the PV.  Superior driving experience and not polluting the planet.

Ken


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: oliver90owner on June 13, 2019, 10:51:56 AM
Good to hear that, Ken.

I will buy a new BEV if and when I win 50 grand on the premium bonds.  The ‘few hundred quid’ diesel Pogo 106 , which just returned between 68 and 70mpg on the most recent tank refill, really makes a BEV a non-starter for me, economically, as I only do about 8k miles per year and use it as a multi-purpose vehicle (no rear seat most of the time).

I don’t particularly fancy shelling out for a high priced second hand BEV that has had the full battery capacity continually used (abused) and fast charged for all its short life.  Running between 20 and 80% capacity at 7-10kW recharge rates seems to be optimum for best battery life? 

This year’s motoring will cost little over 1500 quid (total), provided there is not too much unforeseen expense during the year.  That is assuming the car was scrapped after this one single year of ownership, which I somehow doubt.  It has only done 125k miles so far.

I only get around 46 mpg (= or - 2mpg) out of our other vehicle (a Pogo 607), which is generally used by my wife, but it is the vehicle of choice for long trips - comfort, space and safety considerations, among others.

I do still do most of the maintenance on our vehicles, to keep the costs down as much as possible.

RAB


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: M on June 13, 2019, 01:26:00 PM
Worth remembering that no company makes a second hand car, so like for like comparisons are important.

For an average motorist (7,900 miles pa) getting about 40mpg, a BEV charged at cheap rate will save the owner around £1k pa just on fuel costs, and before reduced maintenance costs.

So, if buying a sh car with the intention of retaining it for 5yrs, then to compete against a £5k BEV, the ICE would have to be free, or more likely come with a cheque for a grand or so.

I forget if it was on here, or another forum, but a few years back I thought I'd come up with a good idea - that parents of college age kids, thinking of getting them (helping them to get) a car, might do best getting them a BEV, as that would help considerably in reducing their monthly overheads (v's an ICE). I got lots of responses from parents in exactly that boat, explaining that that's exactly what they've done ....... so I was late to the game on that one.

It's going to take some time to complete, but as far as ICE's are concerned, the game is over, they lost, there is no possible way for them to fight back now.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: kristen on June 13, 2019, 02:01:16 PM
I have a different view. Currently the BEV marked is battery-starved ... until Supply catches up with Demand I think it would be better to build 2x 35+kWh PHEV than 1x 70+kWh BEV

Nah, that's just investing in more fossil-fuel infrastructure. Something we should have been curtailing 40 years ago.

So one 70kWh car, where only 50% of the battery is used on 90% of the journeys plus 1x ICE used for 100% of journeys, is better than 2x 35kW battery cars where the battery is used for 90% and Petrol is used for 10%?

The issue seems to have already been decided, as the percentage of car sales that are PEV's (plug-in EV's) is growing, but within that BEV's are growing rapidly, whilst PHEV's are falling.

Yup, even BMW curtailing I3 REX and no one else seeming to go down that road (although lots talk of "electrification" rather than "battery" so not sure what their intentions actually are ... they are mostly one prototype after another, rather than actual cars (although the date for actual cars gets closer day-by-day)


Range anxiety does not exist. BEV's are pretty predictable for range. It's Charger anxiety that's the big problem

Good point. Tesla has this licked - plug-in & walk-away. The others need to make their service at least as good. Every time I choose to charge at 3rd party the experience is dire. At best it is time consuming faffing about with APPs and often having to try more than once / move to adjacent pump, and at worst it is "Failed, hope you find a pump nearby before you run out"

Every ICE driver knows never to trust the fuel gauge so why should they immediately change their minds when stepping into a EV.

Tesla shows you a graph of predicted energy usage to destination, and an actual line as you drive.  It would be impossible to run out unless you deliberately drove faster etc. but even then you would see that the Actual Line prediction is going to be below 0% on arrival and you can just slow down, or find somewhere to charge.

(https://electric-moose.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/img_0171.jpg)

The fuel gauge in my last ICE didn't move off full for half its range, and the last 20% was used at an alarming rate - probably due to the shape of the tank and no one bothering to build an algorithm to correct for that in the display.

I don’t particularly fancy shelling out for a high priced second hand BEV that has had the full battery capacity continually used (abused) and fast charged for all its short life.  Running between 20 and 80% capacity at 7-10kW recharge rates seems to be optimum for best battery life?  

Depends.  Early Leaf had no sophisticated temperature management of battery, and degradation was awful.

There are Tesla Taxis, used for airport runs, which have done circa 200K miles over 2 - 3 years, been charged to 100% overnight and left standing like that (Tesla recommend 90% for normal charging) and frequently rapid charged at 120kW ... the battery degraded by about 7% range - not sure that an ICE wouldn't have same loss of efficiency at 200K miles. I think with a decent Battery Management System degradation should be a non issue. But, yeah, as a second hand buyer you have no idea what the previous owner did in that regard.

parents of college age kids, thinking of getting them (helping them to get) a car, might do best getting them a BEV, as that would help considerably in reducing their monthly overheads (v's an ICE).

Good point. Also EV likely to be safer in an accident - probably also a purchase decision criteria for Parents.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: M on June 13, 2019, 02:13:48 PM
Timely article just posted on BEV's v's PHEV's and fuel savings.

I'm rushing off, so only skimmed, but worth noting (if it's not mentioned) that the bulk of oil savings from BEV's so far, are due to electric buses, especially in China.

Chart: Electric Cars Cutting Gasoline Use By Hundreds Of Millions Of Gallons A Year (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/13/chart-electric-cars-cutting-gasoline-use-by-hundreds-of-millions-of-gallons-a-year/)


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: oliver90owner on June 13, 2019, 10:48:37 PM
Worth remembering that no company makes a second hand car, so like for like comparisons are important.

For an average motorist (7,900 miles pa) getting about 40mpg, a BEV charged at cheap rate will save the owner around £1k pa just on fuel costs, and before reduced maintenance costs.

So, if buying a sh car with the intention of retaining it for 5yrs, then to compete against a £5k BEV, the ICE would have to be free, or more likely come with a cheque for a grand or so.
.....

I looked for BEVs with a maximum price of 5k.  I only found one and didn’t bother to see what it was.  Yes, ICE is on its way out, but my £400 diesel runabout (with 12 months MOT) and returning nearly 70 miles to the gallon is a short term fill-in until electrics become sensibly priced.  I was not expecting such good mpg - just over 60 would do me.

I would expect any BEV under 5 grand would likely need charging every 50 miles.  That would mean using public charging stations which would add considerably to the fuel costs.  We have to talk reality here.  My little diesel workhorse is the cost effective solution, over any second hand BEV at the moment.

When I say 50 miles, that means 50 miles - because charging stations have to be selected carefully on my longer routes as there is not that much choice, even if the battery range were to be as much as 70 miles from full to empty.

A 64kWh Kona/Niro, or perhaps a 50kWh Peugeot 208, would nicely fit my bill if I bought a new car.  No range anxiety, no charging anxiety, no need to fast charge often - nor completely full or discharged between steady charges.  Ideal for a discerning owner.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: M on June 14, 2019, 06:59:02 AM
Yes, we have to talk reality, but also take the thread title into account, and realise we are talking about the future. So £5k s/h BEV's with more than 50 mile range will arrive, and the emissions of ICE cars will need to be taken into account too.

And even a 50 mile BEV will have next to no need to use charging stations for many owners, especially when they replace second cars in households, or for those only needing city runabouts, where ICE cars get appalling fuel economy.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: brackwell on June 14, 2019, 08:23:36 AM
RAB,
What you say is all true but you are fortunate in being able to do your own maintenance which is the real killer for old cars when the owner needs to use a garage. My daughter scrapped here little run around because it needed a new rad (not just repair) a job which you and i could have done at home and kept it running.  Then there is service cost say £200 and the usual rip of "you need new brake and disks sir".  The last time i had to take my car to a proper garage for a special job they came back with a whole list of ficticious jobs which i got them to cost -£1200+ and if i had been their usual customer it would have been done.   And dont get me on engine management lights!

So your £700 car becomes an absolute money pit for the average pen pusher. Shame as it might be.

EVs are already here but the majority of people dont know it yet.  I have always had an ICE estate car it gets used once a week as that and i dont know how people live without one but perhaps thats the DIY in me.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: azps on June 14, 2019, 08:58:45 AM
EVs are already here but the majority of people dont know it yet. 

^ this. BEVs have already won. It's just that the win is playing out over time. But that race is effectively over.

I have always had an ICE estate car it gets used once a week as that and i dont know how people live without one but perhaps thats the DIY in me.

I've never owned a car, and I've never driven. But do have a few decades of DIY behind me. I get big stuff delivered, small stuff I collect myself on foot or pushbike. I used to get a taxi once or twice a year or so for intermediate-sized stuff that would otherwise have silly delivery charges: but those occasions are very rare these days, as the courier market gets more efficient and more competitive.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: brackwell on June 14, 2019, 09:22:55 AM
AZPS,
Good for you but last few weeks i moved in seperate trips,  2 ton of soil in a trailer, 2.5M sleepers inside and 3.6M on the roof (you have to collect or they will deliver cr.. ), a 5M packing case on the roof, Car FULL of cardboard, but i can do the sand and cement bags in the EV. which i use whenever i can and accounts for 90% of my journeys.
Then there is transporting 3 young grandchildren occasionally ( no EV takes 3 child seats in the back).  And i thought i was retired !

We all do our bit in different ways.

Ken


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: djs63 on June 14, 2019, 03:58:42 PM
When I was a lad in Blackpool I went to school by tram, electric not horse drawn, and some were 50 years old then in the 1950s and are still going now. Lots of love and attention, no doubt, but I was told that electric motors went on and on. Is this likely to be true for EV motors? Could the motors outlive the batteries?


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: HalcyonRichard on June 14, 2019, 07:13:09 PM
When I was a lad in Blackpool I went to school by tram, electric not horse drawn, and some were 50 years old then in the 1950s and are still going now. Lots of love and attention, no doubt, but I was told that electric motors went on and on. Is this likely to be true for EV motors? Could the motors outlive the batteries?
Tesla are talking about the whole car lasting a million miles that includes battery and drive train.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/23/tesla-battery-million-miles-elon-musk/

Richard


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: Nickel2 on June 15, 2019, 07:32:45 AM
Well designed electric motors can last a long time in regular service. The British Rail 4-REP multiple units were introduced in 1966 and were the most powerful of their type. They lasted 26 years until withdrawal. Their electrical control gear and motors were refurbished and used in the new-build class 442 fast multiple unit trains. Those were then withdrawn in 2007. They are now being refurbished, but with modern more efficient motors and control-gear.
41 years service out of a motor isn't too bad; they still worked, but progress and energy efficiency caught up with them.
If cars ever cease to be a disposable fashion accessory and become a useful tool to be cared for and looked after, they will be built to last and only scrapped when totally knackered.


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: Philip R on June 19, 2019, 03:28:53 PM
Saw this in Greencarcongress.
Basically says that a hybrid is a better means of achieving CO2 reductions than pure BEV in a battery starved Market.
What Kristen said earlier in the thread.

Personally, I want a small lightweight engine, say 400 CC. Reduced friction, high BMEP, High efficiency. Be fine for most local driving on A roads and short motorway work.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/06/20190618-ea.html

Philip R


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: kristen on June 21, 2019, 07:08:32 AM
I wonder if the reason why the likes of e.g. BMW are ditching Hybrid is because they are confident that Battery Supply won't be limiting factor (in the lifetime of the production cycle for a new model).

Doesn't seem to be any sign of that ... yet ... and also news that e.g. Samsung have cut-back on what they can deliver, against the order that VW actually placed with them. But maybe all Auto Makers are privy to scale-up data from Battery makers, and new battery factories coming on stream are going to solve the problem sooner than we think?


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: azps on June 21, 2019, 08:31:24 AM
I wonder if the reason why the likes of e.g. BMW are ditching Hybrid is because they are confident that Battery Supply won't be limiting factor (in the lifetime of the production cycle for a new model).

Doesn't seem to be any sign of that ... yet ... and also news that e.g. Samsung have cut-back on what they can deliver, against the order that VW actually placed with them. But maybe all Auto Makers are privy to scale-up data from Battery makers, and new battery factories coming on stream are going to solve the problem sooner than we think?

Exactly that. And that's why the arguments for hybrids that rely on the battery supply chain being constricted forever, are spurious.

As the UK Energy Research Centre points out in its latest work (http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/publications/disrupting-uk-energy-system.html), to meet our carbon targets, we have to ban sale of fossil cars and hybrids by 2030. (and preferably sooner)


Title: Re: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.
Post by: GarethC on June 21, 2019, 09:00:47 AM
Given rate of progress with EVs, that really feels like it should be doable. Nissan leaf with 80 miles range for iirc £28k launched in 2011, while by 2021 similar cars with double that real world range expected to be widely available for about that price (so cheaper when inflation adjusted). Genuine 250 miles range (real tipping point to be popular with one car households) cars for circa £20k or less by 2030 doesn't feel impossible. Will need ongoing significant declines in battery costs, but that's what's happening.