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Author Topic: Future Oil Report & China's commitment to high efficiency vehicles  (Read 1075 times)
KenB
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« on: January 06, 2011, 11:55:29 AM »

An Extract from the Deutsche Bank report The End of the Oil Age:
2011 and beyond - A Reality Check.

http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/1223fm-05.pdf

This report looks at oil supply and demand over the next 2 decades and looks at improvements in vehicle efficiency.  There is also a very scary graph on page 46 suggesting that daily oil production will be down to 25% of its current 85 million barrels per day - yet demand might be as high as 110 million barrels per day. The gap will be filled with oil that hasn't even been discovered yet.

Meanwhile China is getting into the EV mass production with grand plans for the next 5 years.  Report also predicts that lithium battery prices will tumble considerable over the next few years.


Quote
China’s commitment to high efficiency vehicles
Early consumer adoption of “new energy” vehicles has been negligible, and it is not yet clear
that the current government incentives (~$8,800/vehicle) are enough to drive a lot of sales,
though a recent Ernst & Young survey did find that 60% of potential Chinese car buyers
show a strong interest in purchasing an EV (a higher number than in the US, Europe or
Japan).

In a 6 May note on gasoline demand in China, we highlighted that the most important
question regarding China’s widespread adoption of HEV/EV’s, in some ways the only
important question, is the degree of commitment the Chinese government has to the electric
vehicle market. We think there is ample evidence that the government at the highest levels is
committed to the electrification of the road transportation fleet:

 Electric vehicles are classified as a “strategic industry” under the twelfth Five-Year Plan
(2011-15), and parts manufacturers will receive tax breaks and subsidies. The
government has pledged that it will do whatever is necessary to push the Chinese auto
industry into the lead on electric vehicles over the next decade.

 Premier Wen Jiabao’s choice three years ago for Minister of Science and Technology,
Wan Gang, was the first minister in at least three decades who is not a member of the
Communist Party, but he is a former Audi auto engineer and ex-chief scientist for the
Chinese’ government’s research panel on electric cars.

 Senior Chinese officials, including Wan Gang, have outlined China’s aim to be the
world’s largest producer of electric cars within three years, with a near-term goal of
producing 500K units in 2011.

 The central government has already pledged about $17B to push the electric vehicle
effort, including about $2B for R&D and an $8,800/car subsidy in 26 cities (announced in
June). Provincial governments have been encouraged to contribute on top of that.

 The state-owned utilities have been tasked with building out the smart grid and charging
infrastructure required for a rapid ramp up in electrics. According to the State Grid
Corporation (SGC), which provides about 85% of the country’s power, 75 electric
charging stations are planned for 27 cities by the end of 2010. The pace will accelerate
next year.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2011, 03:27:14 PM by KenB » Logged
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