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Author Topic: Interesting new paper on global temperature trend  (Read 3408 times)
wookey
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« on: December 14, 2011, 03:21:00 AM »

I thought this was a very clear explanation of a new paper that has recently been published looking at what happens to the temperature record if you remove the solar activity, volcanic eruption particulate effects and la-nina/el nino effects, all of which makes it noisy:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/the-real-global-warming-signal/

The short version is that the trend gets a lot clearer and more linear.

Then if you want something a bit more lighthearted try the 'Why David Beckham causes Global Warming' post:
http://theconversation.edu.au/how-david-beckham-caused-global-warming-the-man-u-climate-model-4548

If you have nothing to do for 2-3 hours read the 380-odd comments, and be astonished at the combined tenacity and stupidity/obtuseness of one Doug Cotton, and the saintly patience of the people who keep trying to explain to him how the atmosphere works. I really can't understand how someone could post the same wrong thing so many times (unless he's just being paid to annoy).
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Wookey
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« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2011, 08:12:34 AM »

Wow, it's hard to say this without appearing to be nasty, but me wonders if Mr Cotton has some mental health issues. Certainly no lack of intelligince.

Maybe 20 years ago the science wasn't robust enough to argue the data confidently, but time has moved on.

There will always be the full deniers, consider the moon landings, and the effect of smoking. It's just a shame that this issue affects everyone, so much harder to agree to disagree when the future depends on actions taken and not taken now.

Now, what are we going to do about beckham?

Mart.
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Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
Ted
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« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2011, 09:00:50 AM »

That's very sloppy. For a start he should say "FA Cup Final appearances" not just "FA Cup appearances".  And how can any club have less than zero appearances?  He also hasn't mentioned how he has allowed for the suspension of the competition during the two World Wars.
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wookey
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« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2011, 02:25:11 PM »

Ted, if you want to go down that route, this later blog post (and comments) taking the p*ss out of clasical obfuscation techniques is genius. Rarely have I laughed out loud at a post on global warming/statistics:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/johnnys-growth/
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Wookey
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« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2011, 05:09:59 PM »

I loved it. Very very good.
Although 1 of the points in there is a bit too true for comfort. What i'm referrring to is the modern (legal?) idea that if you are at all interested in a subject, or indeed know anything about it, you therefore have a conflict of interest and cannot be allowed to have your say - as you must be prejudiced (i.e you pre-judge)

Tim
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« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2011, 09:56:14 AM »

I've just had a 25 year flashback to my first day in the sixth form common room. Trying (and failing) to act cool, I laughed too hard and blew coffee out of my nose. Just did it again. Statistically that's an average of one coffee explosion per 20.5 years. Don't remember it hurting this much last time. Maybe you have to have seen the film UP to fully appreciate it.

Look, no-one has *ever* claimed that there hasn't been growth, you lot simply ignore the real points of issue which are… well I’m not quite sure, but no-one has *ever* claimed there wasn’t growth… stop misrepresenting us, you don’t understand the true meaning of scepticism… and anyway, taxes and er…. look, squirrel.

Damn there are some funny people out there. Another great line:

[This is fun! Maybe that's why the fake sceptics do it? Naaaah!]

What a fun start to the day, and think how much I'll get done today thanks to my caffeine lobotomy.

Mart.
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Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
tsh
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« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2011, 08:04:40 PM »

Confirmation bias? Is there a discussion of the fitting and confidence intervals?

Results differ if you include data from 1950...
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/the-real-temperature-trend-given-by-foster-and-rahmstorf-2011-246.php

There isn't a simple answer, however appealing that might be.
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