navitron
 
Renewable Energy and Sustainability Forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: Anyone wishing to register as a new member on the forum is strongly recommended to use a "proper" email address. Following continuous spam/hack attempts on the forum, "disposable" email addresses like Gmail, Yahoo and Hotmail tend to be viewed with suspicion, and the application rejected if there is any doubt whatsoever
 
Recent Articles: Navitron Partners With Solax to Help Create A More Sustainable Future | Navitron Calls for Increased Carbon Footprint Reduction In Light of Earth Overshoot Day | A plea from The David School - Issue 18
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 ... 7   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: The Future of Renewable Energies  (Read 24888 times)
Gnadt1990
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 16


« on: November 18, 2016, 11:44:48 PM »

Dear community members,

Within the context of a research seminar by the Institute of Technology and Innovation Management at the Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg, we are investigating the potential of online communities as an instrument for the prediction of future developments and trends in the renewable energy sector. Undoubtedly some passionate practitioners like you, have a deep knowledge of current developments, feasible technological improvements and imaginable future developments of technology, society and politics concerning the renewables. Therefore, we hope to win you over as participants of a lively discussion.


THE PROCEDURE

First phase
What will renewable energy generation look like in the year 2030?

This phase is a brainstorming on the future development of the renewables. There are no limits set, so feel free to present any idea or thought which you consider possible, practicability will be discussed later. You may bring up every subtopic that is the most interesting for you, be it a specific technical change on a turbine, the future renewable energy mix in general or an expectation of coming governmental incentives. 

Second phase
Depending on the number of presented ideas, we may cluster them regarding specific topics as far as possible. Subsequently we will discuss the presented ideas and concepts aiming to deepen and evolve them collaboratively towards comprehensive future scenarios.


CONFIDENTIALITY
We want to encourage you to participate without doubts and assure you that every posted idea or concept will only be used for academic analysis without any commercial exploitation by the moderators.


We are looking forward to your discussions!
The stage is yours!
Logged
desperate
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3507


Backache stuff!!


WWW
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2016, 12:26:42 AM »

The technology is all in place, all we need to do is get the politicians on board, at the current rate of progress we should achieve that in a couple of thousand years if we are lucky.

Desp
Logged

www.jandhbuilders.co.uk

still a crazy old duffer!
M
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: 5346



« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2016, 09:07:37 AM »

Hello and welcome.

TBH I'm with Desp, the technology already exists, it's political policy that is now needed.

Looking at the UK, we have on-shore wind and PV already able to generate profitably at around £70/MWh*. That is perfectly acceptable (economically), matches the NAO predictions for average wholesale price in 2027, and costs are still falling.

Off-shore wind is falling in price rapidly, and both it and new nuclear** (Hinkley Point C) are about £100/MWh, making them cheaper than gas/coal when pollution and CO2 emissions are taken into account.

Tidal looks to be expensive at the Swansea Tidal Barrage if it gets permission, but is expected to lead the way to a far, far cheaper scheme at the 10x larger Cardiff Tidal Barrage.

Whilst we need to reduce gas generation, we already have a large amount of capacity, which provides back up for more RE rollout, and gas storage as a form of storage whilst other types are developed further and costs fall, such as the LAES system at Highview.

Obviously on top there is hydro, bio-gas, bio-mass etc etc.

So what we really need is some political interest in expanding our current stagnating deployment of technologies.

On a personal level, I'd like to see schemes to encourage the deployment of demand side battery storage, with support (not subsidies) from all parties that benefit financially (government - CO2 reductions, electricity suppliers - reduced supply of high price electricity in the evenings, DNO's - reduced maintenance costs with reduced peak loads).

* UK CfD prices are behind the curve now, given the reductions in cost since the last CfD auction nearly 2 years ago.

** This is not an endorsement of nuclear, I'm simply pointing out that the insanely expensive HPC (compared to RE) is economically acceptable within context.
Logged

Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
dhaslam
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 6775



« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2016, 10:20:20 AM »

I am not so sure that there has been enough development  yet to make renewable energy secure and the politicians are not so far away from   making logical decisions.  The main problem is that not enough funding has gone into developments like deep water wind farms, storage systems and deep geothermal.   All these developments have to come before real progress is made and it is not happening nearly fast enough.
Logged

DHW 250 litre cylinder  60 X 47mm tubes
Heating  180,000 litre straw insulated seasonal store, 90X58mm tubes + 7 sqm flat collectors, 1 kW VAWT, 3 kW heatpump plus Walltherm gasifying stove
billi
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 9070



WWW
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2016, 05:08:58 PM »

Servus , hello

The German energy transition  was started by the Green party in coalition  with the Social Democrat Party   , of course , forced by a public s   growing awareness to move away from coal , oil , Nuclear and other fossil fuels

First Feed-in regulation / law was active on 1 .1 1991  so about 26 years back ...

Pretty sad what the  voted government in Germay does right now , its a fist in the face to all those who started the renewable  energy idea , when it was  as a quite pricey powersource  , and  due to that movement towards more renewables  worldwide,   prices are now down to below other Fossil  ideas  , so absolutely irrational  to slow down renewable energy growth  now , cause nowadays renewables  can compete without subsidies
So , there is another structure  that  influences the RE  growth and i think its pure capitalism , and "hore house" politics   of old fashioned energy providers and conservative governments  to  let them  longer run dirty   powerplants

There is a movement in Germany  that say 200 GW of PV is  possible ( about 40 GW now)  and   i find it a crime that they do not   force their 80-100% renewable stradegy faster right now

Storage is a part of it ,and new age capitalists like Elon Musk just ride a wave to promote his products and his person (but to  fair he is on the good side )  , whats needed is  to see the whole pic    and thats my fear that the bureaucracy is too slow to adopt the changes
I mean  that ongoing  debate about interconnectors  stands in discrepancy with decentralized  ideas   and that people  in some areas of Europe/America have to pay tax on their own  sun power  or are even not allowed to go  off grid  is  not helping , and shows  the  structure of a system that  cannot  target the real problem

So again Germany ( i know.... , am boring talking about it) 

2 weeks of  el.  production  this year  one in June one week  now    shows that wind and sun   can do a lot and even decentralized without big powerlines and  off shore wind


It has to be made cristal clear to Jo puplic  that  we have to act  and  while   the world  is turning ,  monsters are elected ,  dictators supported ... the planet  will terminate   all !

I have no idea   what they are waiting for ! and the current tendency in politics is a politic of denial of our needs for that planet  and  Europe  should address that

Billi





* strom winter sommer.jpg (351.67 KB, 1409x1701 - viewed 688 times.)
Logged

1.6 kw and 2.4 kw   PV array  , Outback MX 60 and FM80 charge controller  ,24 volt 1600 AH Battery ,6 Kw Victron inverter charger, 1.1 kw high head hydro turbine as a back up generator , 5 kw woodburner, 36 solar tubes with 360 l water tank, 1.6 kw  windturbine
Stig
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 489


« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2016, 05:43:22 PM »

Quote
What will renewable energy generation look like in the year 2030?

I suspect most of the increase will be wind and solar, I can't see hydro increasing much in that timescale in Europe at least (lack of suitable sites due to economic and environmental reasons).  I'd very much hope to see a big increase in tidal generation for the UK at least as its predictability should make it more valuable that wind & solar - the UK has some of the best potential here so should lead the way.  I can't see wave generation getting much above the token level.  I think there will be some deployment of battery storage to help smooth the intermittent nature of wind & solar but that depends a lot on how much these increase.  It looks like oil price volatility is likely to continue so that should help steer investment into the more stable ROI of renewables.

I wouldn't like to guess at a figure for the percentage of RE generation though
Logged
Gnadt1990
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 16


« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2016, 09:01:39 PM »

Thank you for these extensive comments. It seems as if in your eyes, we don't have to expect much technology development any more in the RE and it's rather the government that has to lead us towards a higher RE rate. However, does somebody support the opinion, that there will be significant improvement in technologies within the next 15 years? Would you expect any of the technologies (solar, wind, hydro) surpass or displace the others?
Logged
billi
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 9070



WWW
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2016, 12:19:29 AM »

Hi again


Quote
However, does somebody support the opinion, that there will be significant improvement in technologies within the next 15 years?

Hmm ,    look at the price drop of   PV per installed kW  data ( only  to 2014)    ....







Photovoltaik-Preis-History:

Monat    PV-Preis
Januar 2009    € 4.110
Februar 2009    € 3.930
März 2009    € 3.820
April 2009    € 3.740
Mai 2009    € 3.500
Juni 2009    € 3.500
Juli 2009    € 3.390
August 2009    € 3.230
September 2009    € 3.110
Oktober 2009    € 3.050
November 2009    € 2.950
Dezember 2009    € 3.060
Januar 2010    € 3.040
Februar 2010    € 2.970
März 2010    € 3.030
April 2010    € 2.930
Mai 2010    € 2.890
Juni 2010    € 2.840
Juli 2010    € 2.580
August 2010    € 2.610
September 2010    € 2.540
Oktober 2010    € 2.500
November 2010    € 2.510
Dezember 2010    € 2.470
Januar 2011    € 2.480
Februar 2011    € 2.390
März 2011    € 2.350
April 2011    € 2.390
Mai 2011    € 2.370
Juni 2011    € 2.300
Juli 2011    € 2.210
August 2011    € 2.170
September 2011    € 2.120
Oktober 2011    € 2.090
November 2011    € 1.960
Dezember 2011    € 1.950
Januar 2012    € 1.990
Februar 2012    € 1.960
März 2012    € 1.990
April 2012    € 1.900
Mai 2012    € 1.870
Juni 2012    € 1.740
Juli 2012    € 1.720
August 2012    € 1.630
September 2012    € 1.610
Oktober 2012    € 1.600
November 2012    € 1.570
Dezember 2012    € 1.590
Januar 2013    € 1.520
Februar 2013    € 1.500
März 2013    € 1.570
April 2013    € 1.590
Mai 2013    € 1.570
Juni 2013    € 1.530
Juli 2013    € 1.560
August 2013    € 1.510
September 2013    € 1.480
Oktober 2013    € 1.450
November 2013    € 1.500
Dezember 2013    € 1.380
Januar 2014    € 1.420
Februar 2014    € 1.370
März 2014    € 1.450
April 2014    € 1.400
Mai 2014    € 1.340
Juni 2014    € 1.300
Juli 2014    € 1.350
August 2014    € 1.310
September 2014    € 1.290
Oktober 2014    € 1.300
November 2014    € 1.250
Dezember 2014    € 1.240


So  this is an significant improvement same with wind power ,   and perhaps töo with inter-connectors , no need to question renewables  anymore  they won the game ! In relation to energy supply   , RE ideas get more cheaper while FF ideas get expensive  (look at Nuclear)
Consumption in a growing capitalist society  would be a other question , the more important one  

Billi
« Last Edit: November 23, 2016, 12:24:59 AM by billi » Logged

1.6 kw and 2.4 kw   PV array  , Outback MX 60 and FM80 charge controller  ,24 volt 1600 AH Battery ,6 Kw Victron inverter charger, 1.1 kw high head hydro turbine as a back up generator , 5 kw woodburner, 36 solar tubes with 360 l water tank, 1.6 kw  windturbine
dhaslam
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 6775



« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2016, 02:11:33 AM »

Geothermal power is the one that is most likely to develop in the next few decades.  Presently it is hard to drill deeper than 5000 metres  and about twice that depth is needed to reach viable temperatures. 
Logged

DHW 250 litre cylinder  60 X 47mm tubes
Heating  180,000 litre straw insulated seasonal store, 90X58mm tubes + 7 sqm flat collectors, 1 kW VAWT, 3 kW heatpump plus Walltherm gasifying stove
desperate
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3507


Backache stuff!!


WWW
« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2016, 06:48:39 AM »

Thank you for these extensive comments. It seems as if in your eyes, we don't have to expect much technology development any more in the RE and it's rather the government that has to lead us towards a higher RE rate. However, does somebody support the opinion, that there will be significant improvement in technologies within the next 15 years? Would you expect any of the technologies (solar, wind, hydro) surpass or displace the others?

Most of the technologies are relatively mature now, although as Billi points out the costs are still dropping fairly quickly but I think these cost reductions will slow down now. Even if we envisage a massive improvement in efficiency or costs though we still need pretty large amounts of land area to provide a significant proportion of our energy with renewables, and we need continent sized grids to share loads and storage, all of which is possible today, bar one very big problem......co-operation, which politicians among others seem to be getting worse at on a daily basis.

We also need to be wary I think of chasing perfection and overlooking the capacity we have now, we could spend years wringing a few percent increase in efficiency from PV for example rather than installing the stuff. I think we as voters need to send a message to get on with it and stop faffing about bombing each other in the persuit of oil and power.

How long have we been saying this??

Desp
Logged

www.jandhbuilders.co.uk

still a crazy old duffer!
M
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Posts: 5346



« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2016, 09:57:19 AM »

Thank you for these extensive comments. It seems as if in your eyes, we don't have to expect much technology development any more in the RE and it's rather the government that has to lead us towards a higher RE rate. However, does somebody support the opinion, that there will be significant improvement in technologies within the next 15 years? Would you expect any of the technologies (solar, wind, hydro) surpass or displace the others?

Hiya. I'm not being pedantic nor difficult, but it depends on how you interpret your questions. For instance regarding technologies displacing others, that will depend on location. In the UK I can't see how any one technology can succeed on it's own, or to be more clear, generate a significant amount of energy whilst working with other non-RE technologies. They all stand together, or fail individually.

The technologies are always open to the abuse that "wind doesn't always blow", "the sun doesn't shine at night" etc. So PV is no good in the winter, and wind (and hydro) is weak in the summer, and so on. Also storage is important. But put them together, add in tidal, bio-gas, bio-mass, storage etc, and they start to work pretty well. Accept that gas capacity is needed for quite some time but gas generation will reduce, and the picture looks reasonable.

I agree with Desp that current technology levels are good enough to deliver what we need, but advances will occur, but these need to be economical. I suspect we'll see changes in PV (in particular) with Perovskite being advanced. This could give us a big increase in efficiency, but with reduced costs. This is more important than just cost as it opens the door to PV in locations that are currently marginal - small rooves, shaded rooves, off-south rooves, wall mounting, etc. I'm focusing on PV in particular as it's becoming economic on the demand side, which means regardless of government policies, it will gain momentum once the 'economic point' is breached. This carries an additional linked benefit, that demand side storage will increase as that too reaches economic viability.

Whilst I love wind, I know less about it, but assume that the technology doesn't have a lot of efficiency room left, however reduced costs, or taller turbines (improved wind quality) should continue to allow for cheaper output costs. The off-shore industry seems to be reducing costs rapidly at the moment as they continue to develop and perfect install procedures. I also understand that around 40% of the cost relates to the base installs and electricity infrastructure, suggesting that if the bases can be re-used when the existing turbines reach end of life, then replacement turbines would have far lower costs and reduced electricity output prices.

Around the world, given the problems many people have with lack of access to national grids, then I assume PV will be the big winner, though storage is still a crucial related issue, but all seems to moving in the right direction, and now, not in the distant future, such as this scheme - Solar plus storage systems being installed in 25 villages in Mali - which generates electricity at a much lower cost than diesel.

I'm not certain that UK tidal will be a UK winner, but I'd probably risk a bet on it. Hopefully the Swansea Tidal Scheme will get the ok, and the construction should quickly prove the viability, well before the scheme is completed. In which case the 10x larger Cardiff Tidal Scheme could begin, which is expected to be far cheaper (perhaps £70/MWh).

Taking all my ponderings and mental wanderings together, I'd suspect that nuclear (not quite what you asked) will be the big loser going forward, unless far cheaper contracts can be agreed. I don't see how the current £102/MWh cost of Hinkley C can be justified with on-shore wind and PV at £83, off-shore wind headed for sub £100 by 2020, tidal cheaper, storage improving etc etc.

So for the UK, I predict more of everything, with nuclear being rowed back if economic storage and better integration (including European interconnectors) is achieved.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2016, 09:59:19 AM by M » Logged

Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
DaveF
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Posts: 183


« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2016, 01:28:35 PM »

Hi Gnadt,

Personally, I think it is equally as important to manage demand or over production as develop the technologies we already have.

I would like to perhaps see the fabled 'smart meters' come online with price increases and decreases throughout the day and night based on level of supply and demand along with some sort of universal interface which would allow 'power hungry' appliances to decide when they would switch themselves on if they were not urgently needed.

Managing over production is another issue. I think householders and small scale producers should be allowed to export varying amounts to the grid at different times of the day-again, smart metering or similar system needed with the option for the Network operator to disconnect your household PV from the grid at times of over production but them give you free electricity until the period of over production passes. As PV can be shut down with no ill effects, my opinion would be that as well as looking at storage we should look at ways to manage over production.

Regards,

DaveF
Logged
GarethC
Sr. Member
****
Online Online

Posts: 314


« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2016, 10:49:27 AM »

Air source heat pumps (if they qualify as RE). In the UK, eventually we will have to replace our natural gas boilers with something greener. I think that must be heat pumps, but currently the capital and installation cost is too high, and the performance isn't quite good enough.

Mind you, the proposed ban on HFCs might thump the latter.
Logged
Gnadt1990
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 16


« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2016, 01:14:17 PM »

Thank you for your continuous participation. Most of you consider the energy storage a key to higher rates of renewables in the energy mix. In contrast to some of the more mature RE generations, the energy storage problem is still unsolved and subject to huge research efforts. Billi already mentioned the battery packs, promoted by Elon Musk, other further developed methods are compressed air storage or flywheels in vacuum.  Which storage solution do you expect to arise next or develop best?
Logged
dhaslam
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 6775



« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2016, 01:47:03 PM »

The flywheel  option seems to be better for small scale applications, either domestic  or  at district level, particularly where there is  a lot of PV.   The  compressed air storage seems better for long term storage  of wind power.      The multi layered undersea  storage bag seems ideal  but no one seems to want to  make the first one.    There are  problems in maintaining pressure in a  seven layer   storage bag at  several hundred  metres depth but the system promises to be very  effective in storing energy from offshore wind farms for days or  even weeks. 
Logged

DHW 250 litre cylinder  60 X 47mm tubes
Heating  180,000 litre straw insulated seasonal store, 90X58mm tubes + 7 sqm flat collectors, 1 kW VAWT, 3 kW heatpump plus Walltherm gasifying stove
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 ... 7   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines
SMFAds for Free Forums
Simple Audio Video Embedder
Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!