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Author Topic: The Future of Renewable Energies  (Read 24891 times)
M
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« Reply #45 on: December 20, 2016, 10:36:04 AM »

Hiya Ken. You may well be right about higher users, but at least they'll end up funding the network more.

Hopefully a 3p/kWh price increase - I'm guessing 30p/day and an average consumption of 3,600kWh pa - would encourage many to reduce waste. It would also speed up the payback on any efficiency spending. And of course, it improves the income (leccy savings) for micro-gen such as PV.

Not so great for folk with leccy heating though.
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« Reply #46 on: December 20, 2016, 11:10:32 AM »

---
People are continuously focusing on methods of production and not on methods of achieving the same for less.  HUGE peak lopping advantages could be achieved by turning off for 1/2hr say industrial fridges, air con units,EV charging. But how price sensitive are industrial users?
Ken

I don't think industrial users always have the information required.  Apparently my employer has a contract whereby they pay a lower unit price but might get charged significantly (i.e. 100x) more on a couple of days a year if there's very high demand.  They're told a day in advance that "tomorrow might be one of these days" and roughly which hours it'll apply for.  Of course tomorrow might not be one of those days after all.  As it's a rare occurrence the only visible mechanism is an email gets sent round asking us to switch off anything we don't need.
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« Reply #47 on: December 20, 2016, 11:22:46 AM »

---
People are continuously focusing on methods of production and not on methods of achieving the same for less.  HUGE peak lopping advantages could be achieved by turning off for 1/2hr say industrial fridges, air con units,EV charging. But how price sensitive are industrial users?
Ken

I don't think industrial users always have the information required.  Apparently my employer has a contract whereby they pay a lower unit price but might get charged significantly (i.e. 100x) more on a couple of days a year if there's very high demand.  They're told a day in advance that "tomorrow might be one of these days" and roughly which hours it'll apply for.  Of course tomorrow might not be one of those days after all.  As it's a rare occurrence the only visible mechanism is an email gets sent round asking us to switch off anything we don't need.


This is what you'll be describing.

http://www.npower.com/business-solutions/buying-energy/demand-management/triadwarningservice/
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RIT
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« Reply #48 on: December 20, 2016, 01:06:33 PM »

Regarding leccy prices, I'm all in favour of the 'petrol forecourt price' option, which like EBICO has all of the cost in the unit charge. The argument against is that low users benefit from the whole network, but pay less for it, but I'd argue that they are still paying proportionately to their use of the product.

The issue is that not all delivered units of energy cost the same. The UK has 2 cycles that increase the amount of demand - firstly the daily cycle that increases demand during the evening and secondary the yearly seasonal cycle that increases demand Oct - Mar. The result this year is that we have had a (very brief) low demand of just ~20GW and much longer periods of ~50GW demand. As such our average 'demand' across the whole year must be around the 35GW mark.

At some point cost per unit is going to have to reflect the at time of use cost of electricity so that all the 'peak' equipment costs can be correctly covered and so that all consumers are pushed in the direction of controlling their peak demand. A simple example is that of the slow ongoing PV roll out. Currently there does not seem to have been any CfD signed in the last few months for PV so it's hard to know what the UK strike price would be, but at some point PV is likely to become the cheapest energy source during summer daytime hours. Storing it for peak usage will add maybe 3-5p per KWh, while during winter months we will depend on other energy sources. Due to the very wide variance in generation cost a single per kWh charge (with, our without a standing charge) becomes more and more of a problem.


As a side note there is one other elephant sitting in the corner that everyone seems to be avoiding. Currently there is 'some' focus on what the roll out of EVs will mean to electricity demand, but it all seems to be based on the issue of homes gaining a single EV at some point. I don't know about you by when I look out of the window I see homes (2-3 bedroom homes) with 2-3 cars each. Now connecting 2-3 cars up to charge at just 13A is going to have a major impact on energy draw in maybe just 10 years time.
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« Reply #49 on: December 20, 2016, 03:17:33 PM »

As a side note there is one other elephant sitting in the corner that everyone seems to be avoiding. Currently there is 'some' focus on what the roll out of EVs will mean to electricity demand, but it all seems to be based on the issue of homes gaining a single EV at some point. I don't know about you by when I look out of the window I see homes (2-3 bedroom homes) with 2-3 cars each. Now connecting 2-3 cars up to charge at just 13A is going to have a major impact on energy draw in maybe just 10 years time.

First good news is that an EV charged at home is hardly every empty at the start of the charge.   Even less likely to have all the EV in a household empty on the same day.
A EV is also one of the base cases for shifting demand by a few hours, as the home owner can just tell the EV when it needs to be fully charged, and the EV can use its internet connection to decide when best to charge.

Even just giving anyone that makes an effort to use power at off peak times a £100 per year rebate may be enough.   The rebate could be given to the 75% of people who electrical usage collates least with peak time.   (Or maybe 3 bands of rebates at £50, £75 and £100.)
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« Reply #50 on: December 20, 2016, 04:07:29 PM »

As a side note there is one other elephant sitting in the corner that everyone seems to be avoiding. Currently there is 'some' focus on what the roll out of EVs will mean to electricity demand, but it all seems to be based on the issue of homes gaining a single EV at some point. I don't know about you by when I look out of the window I see homes (2-3 bedroom homes) with 2-3 cars each. Now connecting 2-3 cars up to charge at just 13A is going to have a major impact on energy draw in maybe just 10 years time.

First good news is that an EV charged at home is hardly every empty at the start of the charge.   Even less likely to have all the EV in a household empty on the same day.
A EV is also one of the base cases for shifting demand by a few hours, as the home owner can just tell the EV when it needs to be fully charged, and the EV can use its internet connection to decide when best to charge.

Even just giving anyone that makes an effort to use power at off peak times a £100 per year rebate may be enough.   The rebate could be given to the 75% of people who electrical usage collates least with peak time.   (Or maybe 3 bands of rebates at £50, £75 and £100.)

That's missing the issue - we do not have the infrastructure to supply such a demand. ukpia states for 2015

     "Demand for road transport fuels equates to 45 million litres of petrol and a little over 77 million litres of diesel per day."

If you just consider the petrol usage that's equivalent to 430GWh of electricity per day used to just power petrol-based vehicles. Trying to force consumers to spread even a small percentage of that total (and totally forgetting diesel) across the whole day is going to involve pricing structures that are well beyond a few pence a day. Or major changes to company parking so that companies are forced to provide charging point for all their staff who use EVs, this way cars would not all end up being charged overnight at home.

When you start to look at the raw numbers you find that the numbers become worrying very quickly. The real issue is that between the government and current energy providers there does not seem to be any focus on how quickly the UK energy market could change in the next 10-15 years just due to electric cars. In 15 years time, we only need 3m electric cars to be plugged in via slow 3kWh chargers at the same to add a 9GW demand to our grid.
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« Reply #51 on: December 20, 2016, 04:12:51 PM »

Sign up to the Electric Nation trial of the solution to that problem.
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M
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« Reply #52 on: December 20, 2016, 04:26:34 PM »



That's missing the issue - we do not have the infrastructure to supply such a demand. ukpia states for 2015

     "Demand for road transport fuels equates to 45 million litres of petrol and a little over 77 million litres of diesel per day."

If you just consider the petrol usage that's equivalent to 430GWh of electricity per day used to just power petrol-based vehicles.

I had a go at some numbers a while back on the Guardian discussion comments, and I thought our existing generating capacity could just about cope, given how much gets ramped down at night. This is what I came up with:

Quote
Firstly if demand goes up, then more electricity capacity will be built.

Secondly, assuming most charging is done over night, then we already have plenty of spare capacity. Gas generation currently drops from around 25GW to 10GW (day to night). Taking a conservative figure of a spare 10GW for 10hrs = 100GWhs per day, or 36.5TWh pa. Of course, demand is even lower in the summer.

Thirdly, wind generation is expanding, which generates more at night.

Fourthly, refining a gallon of petrol takes about 6.5kWh of leccy, with refineries currently supplied by coal power stations. 6.5kWhs would give you around 20 miles in an EV, so that alone covers half the distance that the petrol supplies.

Fifthly, doing some quick calcs, and using numbers from the net (which may not be precise) we have 29m cars averaging about 8,000 miles. At 3m/kWh we'd need an extra 77TWhs pa (about 22% more than today). Taking points 2 & 4 together suggests we are already about there.

In reality of course, not all cars will become EV's, there my be petrol and diesel still, hydrogen, LPG, perhaps CNG for heavy freight, but if I've gotten the numbers right, then 77TWh's seems ok(ish) today, but of course we are decades away from having a majority EV situation, and that almost certainly means we'll also have some sort of grid scale storage system too.
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« Reply #53 on: December 20, 2016, 06:55:39 PM »



That's missing the issue - we do not have the infrastructure to supply such a demand. ukpia states for 2015

     "Demand for road transport fuels equates to 45 million litres of petrol and a little over 77 million litres of diesel per day."

If you just consider the petrol usage that's equivalent to 430GWh of electricity per day used to just power petrol-based vehicles.

I had a go at some numbers a while back on the Guardian discussion comments, and I thought our existing generating capacity could just about cope, given how much gets ramped down at night. This is what I came up with:

Quote
Firstly if demand goes up, then more electricity capacity will be built.

Secondly, assuming most charging is done over night, then we already have plenty of spare capacity. Gas generation currently drops from around 25GW to 10GW (day to night). Taking a conservative figure of a spare 10GW for 10hrs = 100GWhs per day, or 36.5TWh pa. Of course, demand is even lower in the summer.

Thirdly, wind generation is expanding, which generates more at night.

Fourthly, refining a gallon of petrol takes about 6.5kWh of leccy, with refineries currently supplied by coal power stations. 6.5kWhs would give you around 20 miles in an EV, so that alone covers half the distance that the petrol supplies.

Fifthly, doing some quick calcs, and using numbers from the net (which may not be precise) we have 29m cars averaging about 8,000 miles. At 3m/kWh we'd need an extra 77TWhs pa (about 22% more than today). Taking points 2 & 4 together suggests we are already about there.

In reality of course, not all cars will become EV's, there my be petrol and diesel still, hydrogen, LPG, perhaps CNG for heavy freight, but if I've gotten the numbers right, then 77TWh's seems ok(ish) today, but of course we are decades away from having a majority EV situation, and that almost certainly means we'll also have some sort of grid scale storage system too.


I don't disagree with most of your figures, with the only real difference I would raise is the availability of the electricity being used currently for the refining process. I don't know what the situation is for petrol, but for Diesel we got to the point in 2014 of importing about 50% of our refined Diesel and so basically importing the energy used in the refining process. This came about because the UK refineries were design back in the day for petrol production and the fact that a few have shut down in the last few years as the EU built up a glut of petrol production as drivers were directed to use Diesel cars by governments.

All of my comments are about the likely changes that will be needed to force people to spread their usage of electricity over each 24 hour period without there being a need for massive energy storage. Otherwise we will all end up paying a large premium due to the amount of storage that will need to be deployed. Or as I think most members of this forum plan - to be come as independent as possible and then fall back to the grid when our PV and storage can not meet our demands.

As for the number of EVs in 15 - 20 years, it's very much a guessing game, but this short report puts forwards numbers that could indicate a 'lot' in a very short time frame. Especially if the UK government sticks to its vision of Nuclear saving the day anytime soon.

    https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicles-to-be-35-of-global-new-car-sales-by-2040/
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« Reply #54 on: December 20, 2016, 07:16:43 PM »

Demand and supply will probably evolve. I can picture a leccy version of all the water towers and underground reservoirs we used to use to keep water pressure up, by filling them through the night. The US looks similar with the ubiquitous giant water tower in almost every small town scene.

So we'll probably see some of sort of local storage that acts as a buffer through the day. Or even subsidised rollouts of domestic storage, to share the costs over multiple beneficiaries.

I don't know if my numbers are right, they are kind of 'back of an envelope' jobs, but it does look like our current capacity is okish. However, good point about the diesel, I'd forgotten about that, didn't we used to ship refined petrol to the states, whilst they shipped refined diesel to us? So many things are going to change, and it's so much fun to be able to watch it happen.

Can I throw this idea out there - personally, I don't see any long term scenario that doesn't involve some form of overcapacity of wind generation. And so long as it's pretty cheap, that's possibly the simplest solution to get us through the bottom 6 months, with lower demand (and hence greater excess FF generation) in the better 6 months.
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RIT
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« Reply #55 on: December 20, 2016, 09:27:27 PM »


I don't know if my numbers are right, they are kind of 'back of an envelope' jobs, but it does look like our current capacity is okish. However, good point about the diesel, I'd forgotten about that, didn't we used to ship refined petrol to the states, whilst they shipped refined diesel to us? So many things are going to change, and it's so much fun to be able to watch it happen.

Can I throw this idea out there - personally, I don't see any long term scenario that doesn't involve some form of overcapacity of wind generation. And so long as it's pretty cheap, that's possibly the simplest solution to get us through the bottom 6 months, with lower demand (and hence greater excess FF generation) in the better 6 months.


I know we use to ship refined petrol out of the UK, but that I think that was in the day that we were also a net exporter of oil based products. With the reduction in North Sea production we became a net importer of oil and so our production costs started to rise.

Its the final cost of the CfD for things like wind that is going to decide the future. As consumers we can't expect to keep paying 12p per kWh if CfD prices are agreed at 7-8p and then additional storage costs of 2-4p per kWh have to be added on top. As prices rise it will also cause more people to move to PV (and maybe home storage) to reduce their need for electricity for much of the year, which in turn could result in even more overcapacity during the times that the PV can operate. While not required this excess energy will still be paid for via the CfD agreements.

The next 15 odd years are not going to be dull when it comes to energy supply.
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« Reply #56 on: December 20, 2016, 09:49:57 PM »

As a side note there is one other elephant sitting in the corner that everyone seems to be avoiding. Currently there is 'some' focus on what the roll out of EVs will mean to electricity demand, but it all seems to be based on the issue of homes gaining a single EV at some point. I don't know about you by when I look out of the window I see homes (2-3 bedroom homes) with 2-3 cars each. Now connecting 2-3 cars up to charge at just 13A is going to have a major impact on energy draw in maybe just 10 years time.

First good news is that an EV charged at home is hardly every empty at the start of the charge.   Even less likely to have all the EV in a household empty on the same day.
A EV is also one of the base cases for shifting demand by a few hours, as the home owner can just tell the EV when it needs to be fully charged, and the EV can use its internet connection to decide when best to charge.

Even just giving anyone that makes an effort to use power at off peak times a £100 per year rebate may be enough.   The rebate could be given to the 75% of people who electrical usage collates least with peak time.   (Or maybe 3 bands of rebates at £50, £75 and £100.)

That's missing the issue - we do not have the infrastructure to supply such a demand. ukpia states for 2015

     "Demand for road transport fuels equates to 45 million litres of petrol and a little over 77 million litres of diesel per day."

If you just consider the petrol usage that's equivalent to 430GWh of electricity per day used to just power petrol-based vehicles. Trying to force consumers to spread even a small percentage of that total (and totally forgetting diesel) across the whole day is going to involve pricing structures that are well beyond a few pence a day. Or major changes to company parking so that companies are forced to provide charging point for all their staff who use EVs, this way cars would not all end up being charged overnight at home.

When you start to look at the raw numbers you find that the numbers become worrying very quickly. The real issue is that between the government and current energy providers there does not seem to be any focus on how quickly the UK energy market could change in the next 10-15 years just due to electric cars. In 15 years time, we only need 3m electric cars to be plugged in via slow 3kWh chargers at the same to add a 9GW demand to our grid.


Don't forget though that our total energy consumption should go down, the oil rather than being refined to diesel and petrol can be used to generate the electricity needed, hopefully to be gradually replaced by wind and PV. It is a big reorganisation job but one that we have to undertake sooner or later.

Desp
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RIT
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« Reply #57 on: December 20, 2016, 09:58:40 PM »


Don't forget though that our total energy consumption should go down, the oil rather than being refined to diesel and petrol can be used to generate the electricity needed, hopefully to be gradually replaced by wind and PV. It is a big reorganisation job but one that we have to undertake sooner or later.

Desp

M. made the same comment, I pointed out that currently 50% of the diesel we use in the UK is imported so it's not a clear 100% transfer of energy from fuel production to electricity usage.
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« Reply #58 on: December 20, 2016, 10:24:05 PM »

As a side note there is one other elephant sitting in the corner that everyone seems to be avoiding. Currently there is 'some' focus on what the roll out of EVs will mean to electricity demand, but it all seems to be based on the issue of homes gaining a single EV at some point. I don't know about you by when I look out of the window I see homes (2-3 bedroom homes) with 2-3 cars each. Now connecting 2-3 cars up to charge at just 13A is going to have a major impact on energy draw in maybe just 10 years time.

First good news is that an EV charged at home is hardly every empty at the start of the charge.   Even less likely to have all the EV in a household empty on the same day.
A EV is also one of the base cases for shifting demand by a few hours, as the home owner can just tell the EV when it needs to be fully charged, and the EV can use its internet connection to decide when best to charge.

Even just giving anyone that makes an effort to use power at off peak times a £100 per year rebate may be enough.   The rebate could be given to the 75% of people who electrical usage collates least with peak time.   (Or maybe 3 bands of rebates at £50, £75 and £100.)

That's missing the issue - we do not have the infrastructure to supply such a demand. ukpia states for 2015

     "Demand for road transport fuels equates to 45 million litres of petrol and a little over 77 million litres of diesel per day."

If you just consider the petrol usage that's equivalent to 430GWh of electricity per day used to just power petrol-based vehicles. Trying to force consumers to spread even a small percentage of that total (and totally forgetting diesel) across the whole day is going to involve pricing structures that are well beyond a few pence a day. Or major changes to company parking so that companies are forced to provide charging point for all their staff who use EVs, this way cars would not all end up being charged overnight at home.

When you start to look at the raw numbers you find that the numbers become worrying very quickly. The real issue is that between the government and current energy providers there does not seem to be any focus on how quickly the UK energy market could change in the next 10-15 years just due to electric cars. In 15 years time, we only need 3m electric cars to be plugged in via slow 3kWh chargers at the same to add a 9GW demand to our grid.


Don't forget though that our total energy consumption should go down, the oil rather than being refined to diesel and petrol can be used to generate the electricity needed, hopefully to be gradually replaced by wind and PV. It is a big reorganisation job but one that we have to undertake sooner or later.

Desp

We'd just import less oil and generate more electricity using CCGT and fr*cking. Way better for the planet than whave now (with gas being displaced by renewables).
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« Reply #59 on: December 20, 2016, 11:16:45 PM »


Don't forget though that our total energy consumption should go down, the oil rather than being refined to diesel and petrol can be used to generate the electricity needed, hopefully to be gradually replaced by wind and PV. It is a big reorganisation job but one that we have to undertake sooner or later.

Desp

M. made the same comment, I pointed out that currently 50% of the diesel we use in the UK is imported so it's not a clear 100% transfer of energy from fuel production to electricity usage.

Sorry I didn't spot Marts contribution,

agreed, but only if we are discussing the UK in isolation, I'm not convinced we should do that though.

Desp
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