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Author Topic: Disappointing year  (Read 1546 times)
heatherhopper
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« on: January 16, 2017, 02:36:13 PM »

Just been reviewing 2016 generation-wise and it was a poor year for wind (see below). Of course these things do go through cycles and statistically this is nothing significant on it's own. January is looking to be in a similar vein. Has anyone else got figures to suggest this was not just a micro-climate thing and location specific?

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M
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2017, 05:41:03 PM »

Hiya. According to this chart, 2016 was not a good wind year for the UK. Or rather, wasn't a good year in comparison to others, as 21TWh's is still pretty mighty. And the trend is good.

British Electricity Generation (Balancing Mechanism) Fuel Mix
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Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
camillitech
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2017, 05:56:45 PM »

Hi HH,

only had the 'AC coupled' turbine up for 22 months so a bit short on data but 2015 saw 3128kWh for 10 months generated and 2016 saw 3686kWh with the turbine out of action for the whole of February due to 'Storm Henry' cooking the core, so broadly similar.

A quick glance for October, November, December 2015 and 2016 show :-

211,552,510kWh = 1273kWh 2015
173,353,736kWh = 1262kWh 2016

again broadly similar, but not really been up for enough years to say for sure really. I was convinced that this year was much worse for useful generation. Whilst the actual energy produced is similar I am convinced that the power came in bursts and much of it at the wrong time.

Cheers, Paul
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'Off grid' since 1985,  Proven 2.5kW, Proven 6kW direct heating, SI6.OH, 800ah Rolls, 4.75kW PV ,4xTS45, Lister HR2 12kW, , Powerspout pelton, Stream Engine turgo, 60 x Navitron toobs and a 1500lt store. Outback VFX3048 and 950ah forklifts for backup,
heatherhopper
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2017, 11:00:47 AM »

Quote
Hiya. According to this chart, 2016 was not a good wind year for the UK. Or rather, wasn't a good year in comparison to others, as 21TWh's is still pretty mighty. And the trend is good.
M - I appreciate your enthusiasm for national wind generation but surely these numbers are as much influenced by the on-line capacity (which is presumably increasing year on year) as by changes in the prevailing wind. As for the trend - well more capacity is good but not quite so exciting if it were to be accompanied by permanently changed weather patterns! I'm not suggesting there is any permanent change but I'm also not convinced there is any accounting for long term effects of CC in our energy policy - in fact I'm not convinced there is an energy policy at all, certainly not beyond that motivated by short term profit and political expedient. Forgive me if I sound just a little too evangelical about CC but I think we can no longer see the natural wood for the financial trees.
In my own little isolationist world I'm interested in whether the generation of wind and solar is going to be less complimentary in future. If there are growing gaps I need to fill them with something other than more of the same. Hydro possibly but then we have experienced four years of reduced and "unsuitable" rainfall (locally anyway). Just can't win but I'll probably not be around to have my pessimism proved wrong.

Quote
again broadly similar, but not really been up for enough years to say for sure really. I was convinced that this year was much worse for useful generation. Whilst the actual energy produced is similar I am convinced that the power came in bursts and much of it at the wrong time.
Yes Paul this has been my impression also - not bad returns but not when and how we want it. Longer periods of high pressure dominance (such as this week) and cloudy high pressure at that. I think you will have experienced it a little less than us since you are nearer to the lows passing north of us. Even during the few "storms" we have had this winter we have not seen anything above 70 mph. We are a bit sheltered from the W-N direction which seems to have been prevalent recently with our best wind coming from the SW - when it turns to S it gets a bit hairy.
As I have whinged to M above I think there is change in the air.
Storage for the 6kW?
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M
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2017, 12:28:25 PM »

Hi HH, I'm sorry but I have no idea what you are talking about?

You said that your wind generation was poor in 2016 and asked if this was location specific. I pointed out that it appears to be a UK 'thing' in 2016 as generation was down.

You are right that more capacity would normally increase generation, so that also points to 2016 being a poor wind year, not you specifically.

If you are trying to plan long term, then surely your original question was very important, checking to see if it was the year, rather than the location, and that is what I was answering. Or at least I thought I was.

I thought I was helping.
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heatherhopper
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2017, 03:32:29 PM »

M - Apologies for not making sense - I often don't know what I'm talking about either and even when I do I don't trust myself to have heard correctly.
I think I was merely pointing out that the national wind generation numbers are subject to changes in capacity (and, I believe, turn down) and so do not truly reflect the wind potential. I would be amazed to see them do anything but trend upwards over the last ten years. My own figures are for a static capacity with no turn down - the only variable is the wind potential, I hope. 
I appreciate your pointing me at the numbers but I guess they suffer from the same deficiency as my own - too few data points.
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M
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2017, 06:17:35 PM »

Hi HH. I see, I thought you were worried that something was wrong with your generation, and I was trying to reassure you.

Yes, hopefully the UK trend will be upwards, though on-shore is taking a bashing from our current government.

All the best.
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