The Future of Renewable Energies

[Gnadt1990]

Hi Guys,

It’s me again. Intermediate status is that we have 2 participants in the survey. Since it is certainly more fun, I’m sure most of you are just like me looking forward to discussing the different possible projections of our key factors. Nevertheless, we need to agree on the key factors and the easiest and fastest way is this poll.

So once again a little advertisement to take 5 minutes and answer the poll, please. For everyone that might look into this thread for the first time, feel free to join in.

Thanks again!

[Gnadt1990]

Hi everyone,

even though we have no more than 5 results of our short survey, it is time to continue. I’m sure the next steps will be more fun again. Of course, 5 participants are not a lot. Nevertheless, I hope we will continue our fruitful discussions after the survey now.
First of all, here is how you evaluated the influencing factors:



I originally planned to discuss projections and continue by building a consistency matrix, but the latter would again be pretty dry work and need a higher participation than the last survey to deliver valid results. So, my proposal is that we build consistent scenarios based on the factors above. Thus, your task would be to combine those factors in a most desirable or probable, amongst others, scenario and describe how (positive, negative, or what else) those factors will develop.
Since you probably don’t want to repeat yourself in areas that we have already discussed, I tried to build a short summary of the main factors. Please feel free to add what I might have missed.


Consumer Price Sensitivity
Currently the price seems to be the main decision driver, and the price sensitivity is probably staying high. Private investments in storage are not expected before the price drop is lower than the expected earnings over the same time period

Grid Stability
Grid stability is high with a small risk due to demand variation and overproduction. Desirable for the future would be to allow energy export of private PV owners and in case of overproduction, shutdown by smart grid (PV without ill effects)

EV charging infrastructure
EVs as possible decentral storage rely on stable infrastructure. Desirable development: The increasing number of EVs loading at night and during work time (and PV peaks) and off peak demand times

Electricity Price Development of the Renewable Energies
The prices of PV and On-Shore wind are still falling and around 80£ already profitable and competitive. Tidal energy generation is still in test stage and more expensive but promising. Off- Shore wind energy should be around 100£ around 2020.

Entry Barriers for New REs
The earlier development was predominantly in wind and PV, which have highly competitive prices now. Also the price of basic infrastructure (especially Off-Shore Wind) and the high dependency of location factors negatively influence the development of new REs.

Public Environmental Awareness
Although the environmental awareness seems to grow, most people are rather driven by cost calculations. One idea to enhance the environmental awareness was to treat electricity like a luxury good with higher prices for high consumption.

Subsidies for Storage
Some political push for domestic storage as decentralizes storage solution would be desirable.  Governmental backup is necessary to as long as the fast development decreases storage prices faster than the home storage would save per year.

Subsidies for Renewable Energies
Massive subsidies for Wind and PV in the past also pushed the development and lowered the price. Since some were badly planned and ended with exploding cost, governmental (funding) projects should be less local but more cooperative and long term oriented.


Summarized, based on the survey and the previous discussed developments, we now want to build future scenarios together. Which future is desirable? Which future is the most probable? Or you can think of some creative or utopian scenarios. I am very much looking forward to discuss your future scenarios together!

[Gnadt1990]

Hi Guys,

Since none of you replied to the last question or commented on the results of our survey, are you still interested in continuing our scenario development? The difference to the earlier phase is to combine the probable or desirable developments of the different factors, also considering the possibility of inconsistencies between them or hindrances that may occur in the future.
There are only a few weeks left for my thesis and even though I will continue to frequent this forum, I probably won't deepen the development of scenarios here afterwards. Does anyone want to start? Others may join in if you don't combine all the key factors in your idea of the future.

[RIT]

Sorry for not replying, but between your Summary and the size of the response you noted I did not have anything more to add. As you have found we are rather a small pool of vocal individuals.

[stannn]

Sorry for not replying, but between your Summary and the size of the response you noted I did not have anything more to add. As you have found we are rather a small pool of vocal individuals.

We few, we happy few, we band of Brothers....

[Gnadt1990]

Hi RIT,
 
You are right but I wanted to give it a try anyway. Some of you wrote pretty extensive and creative comments as well showing a lot of practical experience and with one or two more, I am sure we could get at least one consistent scenario. Consider it a nice view in a possible future.

[Gnadt1990]

Dear Community Members,

I want to thank you all for your participation. The semester ends and it seems as if the discussion here has come to an end as well. We may have not been able to get to a final scenario, but nevertheless, we have had a pretty good conversation especially in the brainstorming phase and spoken about major changes and developments within the sector of renewable energies. I am still impressed by the content you contributed as well as by your passion for the topic.
I’m looking forward to continue to participate in the forum as regular community member.

Thank you very much!