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Author Topic: Tony Seba - disruptive technologies  (Read 2599 times)
RIT
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2017, 12:27:12 PM »

I fear that the shift will be far quicker than we can cope with for some rather simple reasons

- In the UK 688,000 new driving licences are issued each year, as soon as we have true self drive cars this pool of people may never take the test.

- Maybe 30% of those over the age of 18 do not hold a driving licence and many more while having a licence may have no access or very limited access to a car. Those younger than 18 will for the first time have easy access to what should become a much lower cost taxi service (I wonder what age limits will be imposed?).

- IF self-drive cars work as planned the insurance costs for normal drivers will start to rise very quickly as they will end up being 'at fault' most of the time.

- Around 2.7M new cars are sold into the UK market. Self-drive Uber type cars would greatly reduce this number after just a few years and just about all the production lines will 'fail' if they are only running at 60-70% capacity all the time.

- The standard fuel distribution system may not survive any major shift to electricity without much higher costs at the pump.

All of the above result in the possibility of a cascade collapse of the current car market within just a few years once high volume production of lvl 5 automated cars becomes possible. For car production there maybe a 'sugar rush' period where those producers who can produce lvl 5 cars sell vast numbers as they will be working to fill a new expanded market, but overall sales will fall quickly if every new lvl 5 car ends up replacing 2+ cars that are already on the road.


TheFairway - Any country that has its legal system based on the UK model does not need to repeal historic laws/rules. Instead, everyone goes to the correct level courts and just cause new case law to be created that nullifies all the old stuff.
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M
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« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2017, 01:31:57 PM »

I fear that the shift will be far quicker than we can cope with for some rather simple reasons

- In the UK 688,000 new driving licences are issued each year, as soon as we have true self drive cars this pool of people may never take the test.

My wife said that yesterday when I was chatting with her about this. She pointed out it costs a lot to learn to drive, so I pondered, perhaps 1k to learn, 2k for a cheap(ish) car, and 2k for insurance, so in the hole for 5k. That would pay for a lot of taxi's especially if the cost of the taxi falls by 90-95% (car lasts 3x longer, has 1/10th the mileage costs, and no driver to pay).
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Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
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« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2017, 02:16:11 PM »

Are they not already? To do more than survive you need to own the house and at least one car, or many when you include the other half and the kids as they grow up. So rural areas are for the rich and those who work locally as long as they can afford the high house prices caused by the areas being nice places for the rich to escape to.
There is an element of truth in any stereotype, but the reality is a lot more complex and encompasses a wider range of types people.
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David
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« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2017, 02:20:01 PM »

A bus stop is not difficult to make. Attracting buses to pass and stop at it is the difficult part. They are fickle beasts not much given to wandering amongst the flowers and animals of country lanes.
And on country lanes specific bus stops are pretty superfluous anyway. Stand at the side of the road at the appropriate time & stick your arm out as the bus approaches has worked fine me in a number of places.
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David
3.91kWp PV  (17 x Moser Baer 230 and Aurora PVI-3.6-OUTD-S-UK), slope 40, WSW, Lat 57 9' (Isle of Skye)
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« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2017, 02:24:55 PM »

I'm of the same mind, the high cost of cars may slow the changeover, perhaps more like the 10-20yr transition from land lines to mobile phones, rather than the 1-2yr transition from mobiles to smart phones.
Which nicely illustrates my earlier point.
Even now, you'll not find a reliable (if indeed any) mobile phone signal in many rural areas.
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David
3.91kWp PV  (17 x Moser Baer 230 and Aurora PVI-3.6-OUTD-S-UK), slope 40, WSW, Lat 57 9' (Isle of Skye)
RIT
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« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2017, 03:09:51 PM »

I'm of the same mind, the high cost of cars may slow the changeover, perhaps more like the 10-20yr transition from land lines to mobile phones, rather than the 1-2yr transition from mobiles to smart phones.
Which nicely illustrates my earlier point.
Even now, you'll not find a reliable (if indeed any) mobile phone signal in many rural areas.


It will be somewhere in between, just for the simple reason that regardless how quickly self-drive cars hit the streets, the world does not have the manufacturing capability to produce such cars within just a few years even if every plant was to switch to self-drive cars overnight. The original video at the start of this thread showed a near 100% switch from horse and carriage to car within 13 years for New York City. Map that type of change to the UK, the switch from horses will have displaced large amounts of manual labour at a time when manual labour was a common job role. Total auto-car Uberization would displace about 250,000 licenced taxi drivers just in the England, let alone all the minicab drivers and Uber drivers which will be many 100,000s more. Add in skilled car servicing jobs and then later on manufacturing jobs and it all starts to get messy.

While we do a good job of keeping politics out of these forums as I'm sure we all have different ideas, one key thing is that no UK(maybe even world) political party has even started to talk about this type of challenge. The nearest they have so far got is the idea of taxing 'robots' which I guess means technology. For the car industry, this is already a problem as there are no clear plans for how to recover the lost vehicle and fuel taxes if these changes happen, let alone raise more tax.
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Backache stuff!!


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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2017, 04:17:50 PM »

Nail on the head RIT, the whole of society is intricately woven around our ability to jump in the car and go anywhere one likes, put anything you can fit in the car, use it as little or as much as one wants, along with all the legislature that involves. It will take years for people to adapt and then a sizable proportion wont want or be able to IMHO.

Desp
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RIT
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« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2017, 05:38:49 PM »

Nail on the head RIT, the whole of society is intricately woven around our ability to jump in the car and go anywhere one likes, put anything you can fit in the car, use it as little or as much as one wants, along with all the legislature that involves. It will take years for people to adapt and then a sizable proportion wont want or be able to IMHO.

Desp

Not quiet, I think we are talking 10 years or so from the time a real self-drive car ships in volume (25,000+ per month in say the USA). The development of the microchip was about 40 years ago and society has managed to keep up, but that so far has been 2 full generations. Self-drive car will change things faster than overall society can cope, but as I have listed there is a good chance that more people will benefit than lose out. The freedom to do what you like with your own car, is only a freedom if you have the funds to own the car, have a licence, can park it and can pay the insurance, many people do not have this freedom and so will consider that society has improved. I just wonder at what cost!

As for legal issues many will be resolved in the courts, unless countries enforce outright bans. There is lots of money behind the whole idea so lawyers will not be an issue and the data collected by the car will provide far more information than needed to show who was at fault in any claim process.
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« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2017, 05:57:32 PM »

I think the initial transition will come from the young and those that drive few miles per year. I'd guess that a house with 2 adults and 2 children, might not grow to 4 cars anymore, but 1 car, and lots of use of car-on-demand, with the one car used by the main driver, but also a back up for all parties.

If the theory works out, and every owned car costs 4-10x more than an on-demand car, then it's hard to imagine a household having more than one car, which in itself would be a massive reduction in car ownership. The next big business will be front garden house extensions .... driveservatories!

Time to divest from any and all FF investments, before the big rush next decade?
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Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
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