How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration

[dimengineer]

From Clean Technica

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/07/ev-transition-mirror-horse-model-t-transition/

It ties in with my Fag Packet calculations from a few weeks ago - https://www.navitron.org.uk/forum/index.php/topic,28879.0.html.

There's nothing like confirmation bias eh...

[RIT]

I would say that is an optimistic view.

I'm sure many replies to the report will comment about things like the lack of infrastructure, but for the US market the real indicator has to be the average age of light vehicles on their roads, which currently stands at over 11 years. So there is going to have to be major incentives to get people to move from working cars that they already own to new EVs. It's more likely that in the next few years we will soon see the EV incentives that are already in place being withdrawn and additional taxes being charged on EVs. Currently, the UK government is covering £4,500 of the purchase price of an EV and charging zero road tax on the car, while ICE cars are taxed to the tune of around £20B a year. Any major swing to EVs will have the government changing the tax system very quickly to protect that income.

I quite sure that within say 10 years that a very high percentage of new cars being sold will be EVs, but that is unlikely to mean a large number of ICEs cars being removed from the roads early. Tony Seba uses the example of horse-drawn carriages within his talk, but an ICE car does not quite have the same limitations and so there is less need to replace them and even if replaced the ICE car will just be sold in the second-hand market unless we end up with a permanent scrappage scheme that does destroy the cars collected.

[dimengineer]

Yep - don't disagree. Its just that there was a report, seized upon by those who should know better, that 50% of British motorists believed they would be driving EV in 5 years. So I did a fag packet calc which I felt showed it could not possibly be so. This Cleantechnica article (who are never knowingly underoptimistic TM) kind of proved my point.

[brackwell]

Of course your correct. It amuses me that anybody took notice of such a non reputable survey in the first place.   However if we talk about mileage then indeed i can envisage 50% of the miles being done by EV in 5yrs time but still a big ask.

[linesrg]

Good Evening Guys,

I've been looking at the practicalities of replacing our existing 2004/ 5 model year Golf with an EV for sometime (as mentioned elsewhere). I had hoped I would be a part of the market penetration but currently the Golf has averaged some 260 miles a week over the last two years. Such as the kayaking trips at the weekend and maybe two trips a week back and forth from the house to the flat and, all of a sudden, the EV looks less viable/ practical.

We also have a 2004 Discovery Tdi which is used for towing but, in all honesty, hasn't done any towing for 18 months so you have to start thinking as to whether it makes more sense to hire something for towing as req'd and replace the Disco with something more suited to conveying kayaks economically and then replacing the Golf with an EV?

There is still the charging issue in town...........

Regards

Richard

[oliver90owner]

What the dims of this world don't think about are all those two car, or more, households.  Probably one of them could be substituted with an EV.  It would likely be driven by both householders (or more) for the local trips where the leccy costs so much less than the fossil fuel.

A friend already has at least six vehicles he can choose from. One of those is a Leaf.

Not only him and his wife, but also his son and daughter will doubtless be using it within 5 years,  for local running around as a 'pool car'.  Now what questions did that survey actually ask?  Surveys/polls are well known for the wrong conclusions being drawn by those that don't read the questions accurately.

Lets face it, as more hybrids and plug in hybrids become the norm, as part of the showroom line up, more will be taken up.  My next purchase may well be at least part electric, but we will still retain the other car for towing and long journeys (if the EV only has a short range).  We will be another two motorists but only the one EV involved.

[TheFairway]

The recent increase in buying cars on PCP/HP type purchases means that many car purchases come round every 3 or 4 years.

Possibly a bit early for those who recently took out a 3 year PCP deal (even those planning ahead are looking to end 2019 for a new EV that can be a full ICE replacement), but second iteration at 5-6 years I think would be the turning point, so 2022/23.

[djh]

We also have a 2004 Discovery Tdi which is used for towing but, in all honesty, hasn't done any towing for 18 months so you have to start thinking as to whether it makes more sense to hire something for towing as req'd

I'd be cautious about that plan. I got a boat and initially used to hire Transits to tow it but I often had problems trying to find a hire vehicle equipped for towing. The last straw was one time going down a muddy ramp when the whole rig started sliding down until the boat was in the water! So I bought a 4WD Jeep. Shame about the mpg.

[dimengineer]

This is, of course, one of the flaws in the "hire a specialist vehicle when you need one" argument.

So, there you are, you have your nice EV which has a nice range of 150 miles, perfect fro the commuting and 95% of your journeys. Then you want to go - Skiing to the alps, or caravanning, or taking all your kids stuff to university. So you hire a large, unfamiliar vehicle, which you are going to get into and do the longest trip that you will do all year - what can possibly go wrong!

[RIT]

This is, of course, one of the flaws in the "hire a specialist vehicle when you need one" argument.

So, there you are, you have your nice EV which has a nice range of 150 miles, perfect fro the commuting and 95% of your journeys. Then you want to go - Skiing to the alps, or caravanning, or taking all your kids stuff to university. So you hire a large, unfamiliar vehicle, which you are going to get into and do the longest trip that you will do all year - what can possibly go wrong!

Oddly this is just the type of thing myself and friends often do as it allows you to get a car that meets the needs of the journey, with space often being the main requirement. I've never had a problem going from a MGB to a 'large, unfamiliar vehicle', but it's very odd going back to the MGB for a few days.

[oliver90owner]

Ha ha, the longest journey for most families is likely on a plane to a Spanish resort!  The number of hirers who get the wrong vehicle type is a tiny minority.  Someone is clutching at straws,  I reckon.

[noah]

Back in the sixties when I was a dispatch rider I went from Velocette (right foot gears, left brake) to Honda step through (automatic) to Honda CD175 (left foot gears, right brake) to Vespa (left hand gear/clutch) in the space of one day. Wonder if I could handle that sort of change today?

[dimengineer]

Ha ha, the longest journey for most families is likely on a plane to a Spanish resort!  The number of hirers who get the wrong vehicle type is a tiny minority.  Someone is clutching at straws,  I reckon.

Not really clutching at straws, just pointing out how a lot of people may view it. People generally want a car that will do all that they want it to do.

[M]

People generally want a car that will do all that they want it to do.

Hit the nail on the head.

So, 'we' need to point out how it could be better to make use of more than one car, have a more suitable run-about and then hire a more suitable motorway cruiser, rather than settling on a one size fits nobody, single solution.

[TheFairway]

I think for 99.9% of anyones needs (probably 100% for most), there are solutions right here, right now - how many people need to drive >200-300 miles without a break? But they are largely unaffordable to many nor available in mass numbers, or possibly in the model variations that people may desire.

So I think the problem is affordability (and to a limited extent availability and variation), rather than finding a physical solution. And they will become more affordable and available and so become more accessible to the masses as long as the right variant/size choice is available.