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Author Topic: How Long for EVs to acheive market penetration  (Read 818 times)
bxman
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2017, 01:39:27 PM »

Surely the answer is the expansion of car sharing  clubs with a range of vehicles , the vast majority of which would not need massive heavy batteries  so could be lighter and thereby be more efficient  
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M
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2017, 03:26:22 PM »

So I think the problem is affordability (and to a limited extent availability and variation), rather than finding a physical solution. And they will become more affordable and available and so become more accessible to the masses as long as the right variant/size choice is available.

I could be massively wrong here, but EV's may lend themselves to more variation as their basic design is a skateboard, on which (I assume?) you could mount various bodies, so a manufacturer could design and test perhaps just 3 or 4 wheelbase variants, on which maybe 3 or 4 shapes per base could be designed, bringing down costs.

We own a Zafira, which I believe is built on an Astra platform, so a lot is possible going forwards.

I'm also thinking that motor (engine) options become less important as a basic electric motor is probably more than enough for most of us, so multiple variations and upgrades won't be necessary. If someone really wants more power or grip etc, then a twin motor design like the D (dual) Tesla options with a second motor serving the front wheels.

I bet there is no end of ways to simplify and reduce costs with EV's v's ICE's.
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Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
oliver90owner
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« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2017, 03:29:33 PM »

Just consider EV sales.  The rise is exponential and would not seem to be levelling off for several years.  Most of those current owners will be changing their vehicles in the next 5 years and those second hand ones will be offered at affordable prices, so the number of adopters will increase as the second hand market blossoms.  I don't think many current EV owners will be changing back to ICE.

Remember that one new adopter also reduces the fossil only drivers by a tiny percentage as well.  5 years and 50% seems doable to me, but it was only a poll of current drivers.  It is not a prediction set in stone...
« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 03:31:39 PM by oliver90owner » Logged
phoooby
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« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2017, 04:32:18 PM »

Already on my second EV so doing my bit for the second hand market !. I think Nissan have it right doing the 4 day test drive they used to offer. When people see how they perform in the real world they will realise that the majority of people could cover  the majority of their needs with a 150-200 mile car, may would only need a 100 mile car but that is a harder sell.
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Countrypaul
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« Reply #19 on: October 10, 2017, 06:21:18 PM »

One issue about sharing, and I have no idea what proportion it affects is allergies. If you are using a car from a sharing service then how can you be sure the person before you has not "contaminated"  the car before you  use it?  We hired a car when is New Zealand a few years ago and within 5 miles my wife was having severe problems - we had to get the car changed even though it had been cleaned beforehand and there was nothing obvious to see, but the previous users must have had a dog in the car (they gave us a brand new one with about 10km on the clock as the replacement).
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dimengineer
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« Reply #20 on: October 10, 2017, 10:48:35 PM »

Just consider EV sales.  The rise is exponential and would not seem to be levelling off for several years.  Most of those current owners will be changing their vehicles in the next 5 years and those second hand ones will be offered at affordable prices, so the number of adopters will increase as the second hand market blossoms.  I don't think many current EV owners will be changing back to ICE.

Remember that one new adopter also reduces the fossil only drivers by a tiny percentage as well.  5 years and 50% seems doable to me, but it was only a poll of current drivers.  It is not a prediction set in stone...

Nope. 50% not doable in any real world scenario. Apart from a war footing, it just is not, and cannot happen. 15 years, quite possibly, 5 Nope.
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azps
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2017, 09:49:54 AM »

Nope. 50% not doable in any real world scenario. Apart from a war footing, it just is not, and cannot happen. 15 years, quite possibly, 5 Nope.

Well, we really really should be on a war footing, given that we're talking about a threat to the future of human civilisation. Sadly, as in the UK's political system it's only the Greens who understand this, it looks like we won't be on a war footing until the climate disasters become much more frequent.

But anyway, as others have pointed out, it really depends what it's 50% of. If it's 50% of the population taking at least one trip a year in a vehicle with an electric engine, yeah, I reckon 5 years is doable. Most of the Uber rides I take are already either BEVs or hybrids. A lot of people will chose some form of electric car for their second car. The London ultra low-emissions zone will increase the incentives. And the huge Chinese push on EVs will really boost production capacity.
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dhaslam
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2017, 03:15:49 PM »

In Ireland EVs are still a long way off.  At present the total number registered is about 2000 and these are mostly hybrids.    The biggest problems are range, cost and lack of confidence in public recharging facilities.  There is, for example, only one recharging station west of Galway and today It is partly out of service.  It will need a new generation of cars, perhaps five years to even start the change.    In the meantime new conventional car sales are increasing.   Most cars in country areas are pre recession so there will be a lot of new fossil fuel cars, about 150,000 per annum for the next few years so electric cars will be less than one percent.   The budget brought on zero benefit in kind for employer owned electric vehicles but most employers  have difficulty in raising working capital and would be reluctant to spend large amounts on  employee cars.
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dimengineer
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2017, 07:26:50 PM »

Nope. 50% not doable in any real world scenario. Apart from a war footing, it just is not, and cannot happen. 15 years, quite possibly, 5 Nope.

Well, we really really should be on a war footing, given that we're talking about a threat to the future of human civilisation. Sadly, as in the UK's political system it's only the Greens who understand this, it looks like we won't be on a war footing until the climate disasters become much more frequent.

But anyway, as others have pointed out, it really depends what it's 50% of. If it's 50% of the population taking at least one trip a year in a vehicle with an electric engine, yeah, I reckon 5 years is doable. Most of the Uber rides I take are already either BEVs or hybrids. A lot of people will chose some form of electric car for their second car. The London ultra low-emissions zone will increase the incentives. And the huge Chinese push on EVs will really boost production capacity.

One trip per year in an EV = 50% take up? You are having a laugh arent you. That is beyond cherry picking, its pretty well fraudulent. Anyway, taking a tip in an Uber - have you no shame - a devious, criminal operation screwing the taxpayer and its (non) employees.
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2017, 10:42:53 PM »

taking a tip in an Uber - have you no shame - a devious, criminal operation screwing the taxpayer and its (non) employees.

Well, as London taxis (hackney carriages) and other minicab firms are riddled with crime too, then they're no better an alternative. Whereas, with Uber, I do get professional drivers, cleaner cars, and I don't get racist misogynist drivers. I get a better service and a lower price.

And the drivers I use are far more sensible than to do something as stupid and selfish as drinking & driving.
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