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Author Topic: Swansea Bay Tidal lagoon decision due  (Read 281 times)
dan_b
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« on: June 12, 2018, 09:43:10 AM »

Apparently UK Govt will make an actual decision on the proposal for a Tidal Lagoon at Swansea Bay tomorrow (Wednesday 13th June).
Given the U-Turn on funding for the new Nuclear at Wylfa, do we think it's more, or less likely that Govt will choose to back the Lagoon?
I have to say I have my doubts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-44440519
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2018, 09:56:41 AM »

Logically, I'd say that putting £5bn into Wylfa to help reduce the size of the CfD, should mean more support for the Swansea Tidal Lagoon. But I guess it depends on where the focus is, if 'they' only look at the £/MWh of Swansea and ignore the potential for half that price from larger lagoons - if the technology and build costs prove themselves - then expect a no.

I'm guessing here, but assume some of the costs can be well estimated beforehand such as the price of the turbines, then perhaps we could watch the ease/difficulty of the barrage build out and quickly decide on going ahead with Cardiff (or others) without actually having to wait till Swansea is completed.

I'd have thought the gamble here is worth it given the potential gains, and not just more RE generation, but more RE tools in the toolbox as that will smooth out peaks and troughs in the delivery of RE over the shorter term.

I read this comment with annoyance:-

Quote
Last week, it emerged that Mr Cairns had queried the cost of the energy produced in an email, saying that although he was a supporter, it looked "twice the price of nuclear" and offered a fraction of the jobs.

 ... but then thought actually it's reasonable, the crucial issue is the potential of the tidal lagoon package, with Swansea being a small and expensive practice run. Note, it's expensive £/MWh, but its small scale means that it won't suck up vast volumes of subsidy.
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dan_b
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2018, 10:12:45 AM »

UK Govt has had a habit of making the wrong decisions on energy projects of late - Hinkley C, effectively banning on-shore windfarms, killing the FiT for SolarPV, so the precedent for the right decision here does seem low!  You never know though, we might be pleasantly surprised...
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2018, 12:37:55 PM »

UK Govt has had a habit of making the wrong decisions on energy projects of late - Hinkley C, effectively banning on-shore windfarms, killing the FiT for SolarPV, so the precedent for the right decision here does seem low!  You never know though, we might be pleasantly surprised...

I'm not sure what the right decision here, actually is. I think the right decision would be: no tidal lagoon: instead, we'll build a tidal barrage (with pumping) on one of our smaller estuaries instead, as a build-up to the Severn barrage.
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dan_b
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« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2018, 01:38:52 PM »

Well well well, the decision is...

... no decision

http://renews.biz/111439/late-snag-delays-lagoon-decision/
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2018, 02:47:34 PM »

Well well well, the decision is...

... no decision

http://renews.biz/111439/late-snag-delays-lagoon-decision/

I'll admit to seeing what I want to see but does this suggest good news:-

Quote
One source said the two sides are still talking. “They are still in discussions with Number 10,” he said. “They are reaching a point where they can make a decision on it but cannot be specific on the date.”

Would they be quibbling over a date to announce a no? That doesn't make sense to me, so I'm guessing 'the date' relates to a yes decision ..... really not sure?
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dan_b
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2018, 03:02:30 PM »

I think the Govt is somewhat overwhelmed with Brexit at the moment...
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smegal
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2018, 04:37:56 PM »

Well well well, the decision is...

... no decision

http://renews.biz/111439/late-snag-delays-lagoon-decision/

I'll admit to seeing what I want to see but does this suggest good news:-

Quote
One source said the two sides are still talking. “They are still in discussions with Number 10,” he said. “They are reaching a point where they can make a decision on it but cannot be specific on the date.”

Would they be quibbling over a date to announce a no? That doesn't make sense to me, so I'm guessing 'the date' relates to a yes decision ..... really not sure?

I hope you are right. Although the planning rules about onshore wind are barmy, the current lot aren't that bad on renewables. Offshore wind is forging ahead subsidy free solar just about stacks up with PPA. I think they could have been better, but they were losing ground to the UKIP loons, so had to appease the gammon types somehow.

Although, I have a niggling worry that they may be waiting for a busy news day to bury the announcement.
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