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Author Topic: Swansea Bay Tidal lagoon decision due  (Read 2067 times)
dan_b
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« on: June 12, 2018, 09:43:10 AM »

Apparently UK Govt will make an actual decision on the proposal for a Tidal Lagoon at Swansea Bay tomorrow (Wednesday 13th June).
Given the U-Turn on funding for the new Nuclear at Wylfa, do we think it's more, or less likely that Govt will choose to back the Lagoon?
I have to say I have my doubts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-44440519
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2018, 09:56:41 AM »

Logically, I'd say that putting £5bn into Wylfa to help reduce the size of the CfD, should mean more support for the Swansea Tidal Lagoon. But I guess it depends on where the focus is, if 'they' only look at the £/MWh of Swansea and ignore the potential for half that price from larger lagoons - if the technology and build costs prove themselves - then expect a no.

I'm guessing here, but assume some of the costs can be well estimated beforehand such as the price of the turbines, then perhaps we could watch the ease/difficulty of the barrage build out and quickly decide on going ahead with Cardiff (or others) without actually having to wait till Swansea is completed.

I'd have thought the gamble here is worth it given the potential gains, and not just more RE generation, but more RE tools in the toolbox as that will smooth out peaks and troughs in the delivery of RE over the shorter term.

I read this comment with annoyance:-

Quote
Last week, it emerged that Mr Cairns had queried the cost of the energy produced in an email, saying that although he was a supporter, it looked "twice the price of nuclear" and offered a fraction of the jobs.

 ... but then thought actually it's reasonable, the crucial issue is the potential of the tidal lagoon package, with Swansea being a small and expensive practice run. Note, it's expensive £/MWh, but its small scale means that it won't suck up vast volumes of subsidy.
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dan_b
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2018, 10:12:45 AM »

UK Govt has had a habit of making the wrong decisions on energy projects of late - Hinkley C, effectively banning on-shore windfarms, killing the FiT for SolarPV, so the precedent for the right decision here does seem low!  You never know though, we might be pleasantly surprised...
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2018, 12:37:55 PM »

UK Govt has had a habit of making the wrong decisions on energy projects of late - Hinkley C, effectively banning on-shore windfarms, killing the FiT for SolarPV, so the precedent for the right decision here does seem low!  You never know though, we might be pleasantly surprised...

I'm not sure what the right decision here, actually is. I think the right decision would be: no tidal lagoon: instead, we'll build a tidal barrage (with pumping) on one of our smaller estuaries instead, as a build-up to the Severn barrage.
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dan_b
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« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2018, 01:38:52 PM »

Well well well, the decision is...

... no decision

http://renews.biz/111439/late-snag-delays-lagoon-decision/
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2018, 02:47:34 PM »

Well well well, the decision is...

... no decision

http://renews.biz/111439/late-snag-delays-lagoon-decision/

I'll admit to seeing what I want to see but does this suggest good news:-

Quote
One source said the two sides are still talking. “They are still in discussions with Number 10,” he said. “They are reaching a point where they can make a decision on it but cannot be specific on the date.”

Would they be quibbling over a date to announce a no? That doesn't make sense to me, so I'm guessing 'the date' relates to a yes decision ..... really not sure?
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dan_b
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2018, 03:02:30 PM »

I think the Govt is somewhat overwhelmed with Brexit at the moment...
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smegal
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2018, 04:37:56 PM »

Well well well, the decision is...

... no decision

http://renews.biz/111439/late-snag-delays-lagoon-decision/

I'll admit to seeing what I want to see but does this suggest good news:-

Quote
One source said the two sides are still talking. “They are still in discussions with Number 10,” he said. “They are reaching a point where they can make a decision on it but cannot be specific on the date.”

Would they be quibbling over a date to announce a no? That doesn't make sense to me, so I'm guessing 'the date' relates to a yes decision ..... really not sure?

I hope you are right. Although the planning rules about onshore wind are barmy, the current lot aren't that bad on renewables. Offshore wind is forging ahead subsidy free solar just about stacks up with PPA. I think they could have been better, but they were losing ground to the UKIP loons, so had to appease the gammon types somehow.

Although, I have a niggling worry that they may be waiting for a busy news day to bury the announcement.
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2018, 11:39:01 AM »

More feet dragging it seems:

Energy minister faces questions as Swansea tidal lagoon plan left in limbo

Quote
“Subject to a mutually agreed arrangement with the Welsh government, which is under discussion, the pathfinder tidal range project in the UK requires the same level of CfD support as new nuclear power station Hinkley Point C,” a company presentation said.

The government, by contrast, has said it believes the lagoon would be twice as expensive as Hinkley.

I may be oversimplifying the issue here, but shirley that argument is resolved by simply issuing a CfD contract as that fixes the subsidy by linking it to an agreed strike price for the leccy output.

If the CfD is £105/MWh for 35yrs, then it's more expensive than HPC.
If the CfD is £100/MWh for 35yrs, then it's the same as HPC.
If the CfD is £95/MWh for 34yrs, then it's cheaper than HPC.
If the CfD is £90/MWh for 90yrs, then it's more expensive than HPC.

Or, call the developers bluff and offer a much lower strike price, but for the Cardiff tidal lagoon (10x larger), and see what happens?
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TheFairway
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2018, 05:38:15 PM »

Not value for money so Thrown out
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 05:40:24 PM by TheFairway » Logged
smegal
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2018, 01:56:47 PM »

https://marineenergy.biz/2018/10/23/swansea-council-decides-to-build-swansea-bay-tidal-lagoon/

Swansea Council decides to build Swansea Bay tidal lagoon

Swansea Council has decided to move forward with the Swansea Bay tidal lagoon project. Swansea Bay City Region has issued a Prior Invitation Notice (PIN) to gauge the interest from the private sector, as it concluded that the development of a tidal lagoon needs to be led by the private sector and without the reliance on government or local government subsidy.
Artist’s impression – Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon (Image: Tidal Lagoon Power)

The conclusion, as well as the PIN, are a result of a three-month re-evaluation of the project and investigation of alternative options for its delivery, which was done by a taskforce set up by Swansea Bay City Region.

The PIN states the Swansea Bay City Region is seeking a partner or partners to undertake the delivery of the development, either through a partner development arrangement or joint venture.

The fundamental requirement of this project is to be ‘stand alone’, requiring no form of subsidy. However, the Welsh Government has indicated that it is prepared to make a significant investment alongside an appropriate institutional partner/investor.

The partner or partners will be required to conclude the detailed planning, design and licencing, obtain all appropriate permissions and secure funding for the realisation of the lagoon. The project will involve a strategic review of the overall project, design work; development of business and project plans; securing of necessary investment, construction and operation.

The decision to move forward with the project with the help from the private sector follows the UK Government’s decision not to support previous proposals put forward by Tidal Lagoon Power for a £1.3bn project.

“Despite the UK Government not supporting Tidal Lagoon Power’s proposals, we want to deliver this ground-breaking project in Swansea Bay,” said Rob Stewart, Chair of the taskforce and Leader of Swansea Council. “We’ve spent the past three months re-evaluating the project and agreeing the best way to structure a deal that will deliver a tidal lagoon.”

“Unlike the previous proposal, we believe it should be a private sector-led development that doesn’t rely on government or local government subsidy to pay for it. That’s why we’re now testing the market to see which companies are interested in helping to deliver the lagoon. This could range from large financial institutions who want to invest in the project to major construction companies who want to build the lagoon,” Stewart explained.

“Once we know the type and level of interest from the private sector, we can consider the best route to take to ensure we deliver this project and pave the way for a new industry where Swansea Bay, Wales and the UK can be a global leader,” Rob Stewart concluded.


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dan_b
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2018, 03:18:30 PM »

Interesting!
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splyn
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2018, 05:57:05 PM »

I'd have thought there is somewhere between zero and diddly-squat chance of getting anyone to invest without substantial susbsidies. I wonder how much money Swansea council and the Welsh goverment have already, or are going to spend on this? Quite a few millions I'd have thought. At least it must mean the 'end of austerity' - in Swansea at least - if they have enough spare cash to blow on a no-hope project.

Alternatively, perhaps they really have received substantial investment promises from some wealthy backers for philanthropic reasons or are prepared to play the very long term game. Just so long as it isn't my pension provider....

Or maybe they have managed to very substanstially revise the cost estimates to make it economically viable?

Surely we would get much more renewable energy by investing the same amount in offshore wind (plus pumped storage when needed)? Yes, diversity of supply is a very good thing and the lagoon output is much more dispatchable and ultimately would reduce the need for storage but I find it hard to believe that is enough benefit for the enourmous costs. True it should last a lot longer than an offshore windfarm but replacing wind turbines is going to cost a lot less than the initial development cost.

Have the environmental concerns been addressed, especially the changes to silt movements and the potential for severe erosion further along the coastline?

Would the scheme preclude (at least without incurring large extra costs) building the full barrage scheme at a later date should the economics and/or political will be changed by, perhaps the need to prevent major flooding as sea levels rise?
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dan_b
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2018, 09:20:09 AM »

A tidal lagoon is storage - it's just being pumped in by the tide rather than uphill with turbines.
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2018, 09:56:39 AM »

With the walkway around the periphery of the lagoon, it'd increase tourism and make the area pleasant for the locals. I know I'd love to have a place like that to run/cycle around without the dangers and pollution of traffic. If they could utilise the lagoon for water sports then it'd enhance tourism even more. If they can't utilise it (i.e. due to dangers of being dragged under by the turbines, then they could install a huge floating platform of PV panels to further enhance generation.
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