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Author Topic: Bloomberg expects 34% fall in PV price this year.  (Read 305 times)
stannn
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« on: July 09, 2018, 08:43:14 PM »

https://www.photon.info/en/news/bnef-expects-34-percent-fall-pv-module-prices-year-due-overcapacity
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2.45 kWp PV (Navitron supply), 40 evacuated tubes (Navitron supply), Clearview 650 log burner with back-boiler heating cottage and water, 2 off 50W border collies, 1 off 35W cat, 1 off 25W cat.
brackwell
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2018, 11:02:04 AM »

IF this happens and then FITS is removed we must really be back in the realms of DIY.  4kwp for 3K ?  By the way when FITS ends does the export payment also?

Ken
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RIT
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2018, 03:08:11 PM »

IF this happens and then FITS is removed we must really be back in the realms of DIY.  4kwp for 3K ?  By the way when FITS ends does the export payment also?

Ken

Within the EU it's hard for prices to fall much faster than the EU's minimum import price structure allows. If cells and panels using parts from China, Malaysia or Taiwan, are imported below the EU prices they are hit with a 64.9% duty, so many manufacturers have just import at the EU rate and just book a higher profit.

The EU has been slowly reducing its minimum import price, but only fast enough to make it clear that no one should bother with the long-term investment to build new capacity in the EU. Last year there were reports that the price restrictions would be lifted by Sept 2018, but I've not seen any updates.
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2.4kW PV system, output can be seen at  - https://pvoutput.org/list.jsp?userid=49083

Why bother? - well, there is no planet B
Fionn
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2018, 04:20:39 PM »

There has been very little movement in module prices within the EU over the last 3 years from what I have seen.
Given that there remains no module manufacturing worth talking about within the EU it's hard to see what the tariff is achieving at this stage other than delaying the adoption of PV.
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nowty
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2018, 05:39:49 PM »

IF this happens and then FITS is removed we must really be back in the realms of DIY.

And relax rules on DIY installation for a low power system, say 2 or 3 standard 250w panels to run house baseload. Just pick up a simple kit from local DIY centre, Amazon, fleebay, etc.

Mount panels on a shed, garage or wall, plug DC cables in parallel into an inverter so DC voltage is low and not dangerous. Inverter can be a simple device resembling a large laptop PSU and plugs into an existing 13 amp socket. You cannot get a shock off the plug because of the G83 rules and not enough current to compromise 13 amp socket or socket circuit breaker protection.

No FIT application, no DNO notification, no electrician required.

Say you can get price to as low as 300 and you annually self use 500 kWh(s), you would get payback within 4 years. Just imagine how much more domestic PV we would get.
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10kW of PV installed and 40+ MWh generated.
Usable battery storage of 50+ kWh.
Heat storage of 20+ kWh.
6kW Ground Source Heatpump.
190,000+ litres of water harvested from underground river.
A few cold frames and raised beds.
RIT
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2018, 06:12:10 PM »

IF this happens and then FITS is removed we must really be back in the realms of DIY.

And relax rules on DIY installation for a low power system, say 2 or 3 standard 250w panels to run house baseload. Just pick up a simple kit from local DIY centre, Amazon, fleebay, etc.

Mount panels on a shed, garage or wall, plug DC cables in parallel into an inverter so DC voltage is low and not dangerous. Inverter can be a simple device resembling a large laptop PSU and plugs into an existing 13 amp socket. You cannot get a shock off the plug because of the G83 rules and not enough current to compromise 13 amp socket or socket circuit breaker protection.

No FIT application, no DNO notification, no electrician required.

Say you can get price to as low as 300 and you annually self use 500 kWh(s), you would get payback within 4 years. Just imagine how much more domestic PV we would get.

The problem is that to do this the UK would have to dismantle vast amounts of Health and Safety and electrical rules, many of which are there for very good reasons. It is never a good idea to have a device that has exposed pins that could provide a 240V AC output if something is not right with the device. Even the panels when wired up will have the potential to kill in the right/wrong circumstance.

As a side note the G83 rules are not tight enough to work correctly with the rules regarding new electrical wiring - So when a house is wired with an up to date consumer unit it is normal for 'immediate' operation RCDs to be used, these can trip within a few ms, G83 devices have up to 5s to drop off-line, most are far faster at less than a second, but that is still a long time and will be in addition to the RCD delay if someone has managed to connect themselves to the mains spur/ring that the G83 device is on.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 07:07:20 PM by RIT » Logged

2.4kW PV system, output can be seen at  - https://pvoutput.org/list.jsp?userid=49083

Why bother? - well, there is no planet B
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