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Author Topic: We're f**ked!  (Read 3920 times)
desperate
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« on: August 07, 2018, 10:20:14 AM »

I've long believed were are waaaay too late to do much about the state of the Planet,

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/06/domino-effect-of-climate-events-could-push-earth-into-a-hothouse-state

even more so when I look at our disfunctional Politicians who are a complete bunch of wa*kers who can't even work out how to talk to each other.


Was James Lovelock right?

Desp
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Bodidly
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2018, 10:42:14 AM »

Yep way too late. There are some baby steps taken the right way but nothing substantial. At the end of the day the politicians who make the decisions are only in power for a short time and want to please the general public for the short term. Not enough of the public are prepared to take on the chin the massive paradigm shift that would be required. Global warming is too slow for anyone to take immediate action IMO

We will just adapt to the warming world as best we can letting some places become uninhabitable. The poor third world as usual will suffer the most while we are responsible for their plight  banghead
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biff
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2018, 11:22:05 AM »

The pollution of the Niger Delta should have brought an armed UN response,
                                But instead they waffled and slid sideways and now the area is a man made disaster area growing worse every year.
  You do not have to look very far to see exactly who is responsible but the ordinary people are dying of all kinds of rare cancers that never appeared before and food like fish is impossible to catch or eat.
 This could be the whole planet in less than 50 years unless something is done about it.
                                           Biff
 
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todthedog
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2018, 05:00:36 PM »

A US President in denial of anything but self aggrandisement.  flyingpig
A British prime minister that I would not trust with 50p to go and buy a newspaper without mishap.
Leading a government that has destroyed the solar industry and is trying to wreck renewables. fume
Leaders!!!
Would the world be a worse place if the killing ape wiped itself out.

Too little too late!
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pdf27
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2018, 06:50:38 PM »

Listening to this chap on the radio this morning I was not at all impressed - he did an absolutely terrible job of justifying the hypothesis in the paper. It wasn't even the presenter either - he made a number of logic jumps and didn't even attempt to support them. I gave up listening when he claimed that because the earth is currently the warmest it's been since the last ice age getting any warmer will mean it automatically tips over and get continually hotter. While this may be how the system works, that isn't how most similar systems work and was something he really needed to justify, which he made no effort to.
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desperate
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2018, 09:13:30 PM »

Listening to this chap on the radio this morning I was not at all impressed - he did an absolutely terrible job of justifying the hypothesis in the paper. It wasn't even the presenter either - he made a number of logic jumps and didn't even attempt to support them. I gave up listening when he claimed that because the earth is currently the warmest it's been since the last ice age getting any warmer will mean it automatically tips over and get continually hotter. While this may be how the system works, that isn't how most similar systems work and was something he really needed to justify, which he made no effort to.

I've given up listening to today, it induces me to throw things at the radio facepalm

Did you follow the link to this?

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

to be fair to the authors they do state that this analysis is by no means conclusive, but the signposts are lining up and all, or nearly all pointing to a bad place.
As I alluded to earlier some scientists were warning and writing about this kind of scenario more than thirty years ago, and yet we have acheived nothing in terms of CO2 reduction, in fact if you look here,

https://www.co2.earth/

after a few years of slowdown it is starting to accelerate again.

Desp
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sam_cat
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2018, 09:14:41 PM »

We need a science based worldwide dictatorship.... Its the only way.
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RIT
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2018, 09:59:24 PM »

We need a science based worldwide dictatorship.... Its the only way.

God no, science can rather easily show that humans are causing an issue that can result in a very bad situation. The same science can then be applied to solving the issue in the quickest time and at the least cost. What do you think the resulting solution would be to the question of how do we reduce the strain that 7.4B people place on the planet as soon as possible and for the lowest cost.

What we need is a political class that acts on the information that science provides, rather than hoping that their term/life will be over before the issues become so bad that they are directly affected.
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Why bother? - well, there is no planet B
pdf27
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2018, 06:25:26 AM »

Listening to this chap on the radio this morning I was not at all impressed - he did an absolutely terrible job of justifying the hypothesis in the paper. It wasn't even the presenter either - he made a number of logic jumps and didn't even attempt to support them. I gave up listening when he claimed that because the earth is currently the warmest it's been since the last ice age getting any warmer will mean it automatically tips over and get continually hotter. While this may be how the system works, that isn't how most similar systems work and was something he really needed to justify, which he made no effort to.

I've given up listening to today, it induces me to throw things at the radio facepalm

Did you follow the link to this?

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

to be fair to the authors they do state that this analysis is by no means conclusive, but the signposts are lining up and all, or nearly all pointing to a bad place.
As I alluded to earlier some scientists were warning and writing about this kind of scenario more than thirty years ago, and yet we have acheived nothing in terms of CO2 reduction, in fact if you look here,

https://www.co2.earth/

after a few years of slowdown it is starting to accelerate again.

Desp
I have now. Rather better than the guy doing the interview, but very much a paper good for preaching to the converted. Essentially they're talking about (and giving some detail on) effects where by warming may lead to more warming, and mention effects which may counteract this but then proceed to gloss over them and make no attempt to explore them further. That means those who don't believe in climate change will just jump straight on that omission and proceed to ignore the rest of the paper.
The other area that concerns me is this rather good-looking diagram:

Which essentially implies that above certain CO2 levels in the atmosphere (quite low ones compared to those found further back in geological time, in fact) the earth will be stuck in a very stable warm state. During the Carboniferous period, for instance, we were at about 1500 PPM and the earth was a much warmer place - and yet it quite literally grew out of that as masses of vegetation growth absorbed it and laid it down as coal. That's the very effect they're saying can be ignored, which makes me rather uncomfortable with some of the headline conclusions of the report.
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oliver90owner
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2018, 07:13:54 AM »

Comparing the Earth of a couple hundred million years ago with present conditions, for comfortable human existence, is rather extreme.

Humans, in our current form, are unlikely to be around in another million years - let alone 200 million.  Humanity is already well on the way to self destruction, IMO.

200 million years ago, or more, and the Earth was a different place.  The still single(?) land mass was fairly well positioned across the equator and the ocean (effectively one large one?) would have caused rather different weather conditions to prevail than we are experiencing.

In the current timescale, we are looking at only a few centuries, not millions.

Saying ‘we’ while referring to the carboniferous period is a bit cheeky.  ‘We’ weren’t even thought of back then and a mass extinction occurred between then and now!
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Bodidly
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2018, 07:57:17 AM »

"and yet it quite literally grew out of that as masses of vegetation growth absorbed it and laid it down as coal"

 We are never going to let that happen. We will burn it faster than it can grow.
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snyggapa
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2018, 09:41:02 AM »

Humans, in our current form, are unlikely to be around in another million years - let alone 200 million.  Humanity is already well on the way to self destruction, IMO.

A million years? I give it 100 years, max, before termites are again the dominant species on the planet

Natural order restored , all that will be found in about 100 million years when the next intelligent species evolves will be a thin unexplainable radioactive layer in the soil when they dig down
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azps
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2018, 10:50:23 AM »

Which essentially implies that above certain CO2 levels in the atmosphere (quite low ones compared to those found further back in geological time, in fact) the earth will be stuck in a very stable warm state. During the Carboniferous period, for instance, we were at about 1500 PPM and the earth was a much warmer place - and yet it quite literally grew out of that as masses of vegetation growth absorbed it and laid it down as coal. That's the very effect they're saying can be ignored, which makes me rather uncomfortable with some of the headline conclusions of the report.

That's the effect that they say can be ignored at the timescales of human lifetimes.

And they're right. It can, as far as we as a civilisation are concerned, be ignored at those timescales.

Still, you're right to be uncomfortable with the report's conclusions. They are very uncomfortable. They should be uncomfortable. The warning signs are getting louder, clearer, and more dangerous. We've been largely ignoring them for decades, and we've now baked in many trillions of pounds of damage for the coming decades. The big question now is, how much larger will we let that damage become?
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djs63
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2018, 10:55:48 AM »

In the end it is about the global temperature at which the human race can survive. Loss of water and food supplies, heat deaths etc will soon be common place, perhaps within a century.  banghead:Millions of years ago there were no humans...
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desperate
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2018, 10:37:08 PM »

Listening to this chap on the radio this morning I was not at all impressed - he did an absolutely terrible job of justifying the hypothesis in the paper. It wasn't even the presenter either - he made a number of logic jumps and didn't even attempt to support them. I gave up listening when he claimed that because the earth is currently the warmest it's been since the last ice age getting any warmer will mean it automatically tips over and get continually hotter. While this may be how the system works, that isn't how most similar systems work and was something he really needed to justify, which he made no effort to.

I've given up listening to today, it induces me to throw things at the radio facepalm

Did you follow the link to this?

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

to be fair to the authors they do state that this analysis is by no means conclusive, but the signposts are lining up and all, or nearly all pointing to a bad place.
As I alluded to earlier some scientists were warning and writing about this kind of scenario more than thirty years ago, and yet we have acheived nothing in terms of CO2 reduction, in fact if you look here,

https://www.co2.earth/

after a few years of slowdown it is starting to accelerate again.

Desp
I have now. Rather better than the guy doing the interview, but very much a paper good for preaching to the converted. Essentially they're talking about (and giving some detail on) effects where by warming may lead to more warming, and mention effects which may counteract this but then proceed to gloss over them and make no attempt to explore them further. That means those who don't believe in climate change will just jump straight on that omission and proceed to ignore the rest of the paper.


Which essentially implies that above certain CO2 levels in the atmosphere (quite low ones compared to those found further back in geological time, in fact) the earth will be stuck in a very stable warm state. During the Carboniferous period, for instance, we were at about 1500 PPM and the earth was a much warmer place - and yet it quite literally grew out of that as masses of vegetation growth absorbed it and laid it down as coal. That's the very effect they're saying can be ignored, which makes me rather uncomfortable with some of the headline conclusions of the report.

As others have said though this is all about timescales, as I'm sure you know the Carboniferous and it's subsquent pumping down of CO2 took a hundred million million years or more, we've messed up the atmosphere in a matter of decades. And despite that pumping down of CO2 that period didn't end well, the Permian/triassic extinction event put paid to a lot of species 80% plus I think. A strong possibility is it was caused by a volcanic or impact event triggering a release of methane from clathrates and hence a runaway greenhouse.

 Not so dissimilar to our present situation?

I think there are plenty of examples throughout history where a sequence of events caused the climate to become unstable but generally those events have been random, but we seem to be consistently pushing the climate towards the hotter end of the scale which I think is unusual to say the least.

Desp

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