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Author Topic: Gridwatch .....  (Read 3111 times)
GarethC
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2018, 12:41:59 PM »

The economics are less relevant for this forum of course (by and large) but remain of interest for wider take up. Installations have slowed to a relative trickle, and all other things being equal, presumably will slow further due to subsidy removal.

Our only hope here is reduction in the two cost elements. The cost per kW installed has remained steady recently, depressingly, for small installations (down a bit for larger ones, which actually I care more about as I think it's logical that it contribute much more to total capacity growth). I reckon with MIPs going, costs will come down a bit, but probably not enough to make small system installations a compelling proposition without subsidy, RELATIVE to the faff of installation (hoops you have to go through).

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-pv-cost-data

Which is where this thread gets interesting. How much easier do people here genuinely think installations will get in terms of ease of install? Will it be much better? Or just a bit? And if we move to -primarily- non MCS installs, or even DIY, how much might that reduce the cost of installation from the current circa 5k for a 4kW install?
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 12:43:01 AM by GarethC » Logged
kristen
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2018, 12:51:30 PM »

Is there a Building Regs requirement [not sure if that it the right legislation?] for PV on new builds? If not I can't imagine why not ...

Force builder to do it, level paying field for all, and they will tool-up for volume and skill, which will drive cost down. The PV would be designed-in too, rather than bolted-on afterwards.

Retro-fit is something else of course ... but building regs could require that for any maintenance of the "roof off" type perhaps? I assume that would equally benefit from the same tooling-up that builders would have to do for New Builds.
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phoooby
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2018, 04:05:51 PM »

A Cheap DIY system for B & Q etc. Plug in and off you go. Would of course need careful design of an interter so the plug isn't live. I guess the DNO would also need notifying. Perhaps a simple online form with model of system installed compliant with so British Standard. Up to 500w wouldnt cause the DNO too much trouble and would cover alot of base load in a house. Most generation would be used to cover base loads so little export and hence you get the maximum return by not having a big system exporting all the time for no FIT or export tariff. c. 400-500 1 per watt ish as a package in a box ?
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brackwell
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2018, 04:56:59 PM »

Tesla EV -overweight,oversized,over expensive and not as efficient.  Does not tick any of my boxes.

Ken
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JohnS
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2018, 04:59:29 PM »


everyone seams to be jumping on JohnS a bit.... it didn't look like he was complaining to me, about payback or investment return... just making a comment about it


Thanks for your kind words.  I was not complaining.  In many ways I am happy to have been an early investor that got the ball rolling and, by increasing demand, helped lower the cost for subsequent PV installations to the benefit of others.

My point, with some tongue in cheek, was that PV and wind are not free energy.  Firstly, someone is paying for it, whether it be via FITs or ROCs  or whatever.  None of the wind farms are giving their energy free to the electricity suppliers.  They are being paid for it.

It is too easy to confuse the marginal cost of production, which is close to zero for PV and wind, with the true cost which is mostly the original capital outlay.  Is the technical word for this levelized cost?

Again, it is easy to say that PV and wind are free from pollution/CO2 but this ignores the pollution and CO2 from construction/manufacture.  However, I was not referring to this freedom.

John
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kristen
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2018, 05:17:05 PM »

Tesla EV -overweight,oversized,over expensive and not as efficient.  Does not tick any of my boxes.

Ticks mine because I can realistically do 300 miles in a day visiting a client without huge inconvenience nor having to overnight. My longest regular trip is Suffolk to Bristol, 400 miles and 10 minute charge on the way there and 30 minutes on the way back. Its self-driving also means I arrive, there and back home, far more refreshed, and safer, than I ever used to manual-driving.

Agree it is expensive (3x what I am used to paying for a car), although the 4K a year it saves me on Diesel-cost helps; when there is an alternative - smaller, lighter, cheaper - I will happily buy that - and many other people too!  Model-3 is about 20% more efficient, that's a good start but for now nothing in any other EV stable that would enable me to get about without resorting to ICE half the time.
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knighty
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2018, 07:04:27 AM »

Tesla EV -overweight,oversized,over expensive and not as efficient.  Does not tick any of my boxes.

Ken

KEn, did you post in the wrong thread?   I can;t see any mention of tesla/electric cars before this here...

anyway...

I was thinking about this the other day.... people complaining teslas are big/heavy.... are they not big/heavy because they need to be big to hold all the batteries and the batteries are heavy?

you can't have long range without lots of batteries.. can't have batteries without weight or space to put them?
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brackwell
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2018, 08:38:18 AM »

Yes your correct but the thing is the vast majority do not need that range.  The problem is range anxiety and the fact that most people will not be able to handle the anxiety itself and the management of range.  I know people who fill up their ICE car when it is 1/2 full.   I have had an electric car for nearly 3 yrs now and i know what it feels like to arrive at your destination with only a few mls range left. Imagine driving around with the red fuel light on in a ICE car.  Not many have the temperment nor ability to handle this so what do they do -buy a long range expensive EV.    The correctly sized EV is one that does 90% of the journeys without range anxiety 5% they need to manage the range by slowing down a little etc, 5% they can only do the journey by charging on route.   So clearly the solution will be different for folks.   Not knocking the Tesla but just saying there are better solutions for most people.

Ken
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dan_b
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2018, 09:23:31 AM »

In short, no. Reason for it is lobbying from the house builders who complained that increasing/improving the energy efficiency standards by, for example, mandatory PV and better insulation for new builds would increase the build cost and they'd lose money.



Is there a Building Regs requirement [not sure if that it the right legislation?] for PV on new builds? If not I can't imagine why not ...

Force builder to do it, level paying field for all, and they will tool-up for volume and skill, which will drive cost down. The PV would be designed-in too, rather than bolted-on afterwards.

Retro-fit is something else of course ... but building regs could require that for any maintenance of the "roof off" type perhaps? I assume that would equally benefit from the same tooling-up that builders would have to do for New Builds.
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2018, 09:24:10 AM »

Overweight compared to what?
Oversized for what?
Not as efficient as what?

Tesla EV -overweight,oversized,over expensive and not as efficient.  Does not tick any of my boxes.

Ken
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3.06kWp SolarEdge system with a split array:
2.18kWp 10x South facing, plus 4x West facing 880W

Mk1 ImmerSUN DHW diverter
4kW PowerVault Battery
phoooby
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« Reply #25 on: October 15, 2018, 02:46:30 PM »

Bit of thread drift but.

Tesla MS is 6 years old now and designed several years before that.
Battery packs installed have increased in capacity and dropped in weight (per kWh) over that time.
The bodywork is aluminium to save weight of what they can which probably accounts for part of the high price.
Yes, it is too big by most peoples expectations of a normal car but so are the countless SUV's, RR's, S class, 7 series. It looks small compared to some cars. Width is only an annoyance on road width restrictions and length make reversing necessary to negotiate corners in some car parks. On the road, no issues.
MS (and the leaf) kick started real interest in owning and consequently manufacturers building ev's. Prior to those two, it was diy conversions and gwiz for everyone to take the mick out of so it has helped the cause.

M3 is much more suited to European expectations of size, cost, and efficiency so will increase uptake even more. MY (crossover M3) will take that to a new level of acceptance.



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Nissan Leaf 24 (gone)
Tesla Model S
Nissan env-200
65k ev miles and rising
6kw WBS
kristen
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« Reply #26 on: October 15, 2018, 10:10:26 PM »

the vast majority do not need that range

Sure, EV drivers can manage range, but that takes quite a lot of effort (unless your only journeys are local, and in that case I fully agree) planning and adjusting. For those folk for whom time is their own they can take time over their journey - either driving at 50 MPH, or stopping lots to charge ... or both. I'm happy to make some lifestyle changes, but adoption is a lot easier if such changes are minimal or, better sill, non-existent, and I certainly don;t have time to drive significantly below traffic speeds, nor stop to charge for hours. Technology will no doubt improve all this, but right now we are where we are Smiley

I tried my 400 mile Bristol journey recharging such that I used only 40kWh, equivalent to a smaller battery.  Instead of 40 minutes charging its 1h45m, that's a lot to add to an already tiring day and realistically I'd have to overnight. Allowing 20 miles of safety for road closure / detour makes a dramatic difference when road-tripping on a small 40kWH sized battery, with a safe range of 80 miles but only 10% or less with a Tesla-sized battery. If I didn't have a Tesla, and couldn't use the Supercharger network, than the best charging speed I could get, on CHAdeMO, would double the Supercharger time.  If I was stuck on Type-2 chargers at around 22 MPH and assuming my initial safe range was, say 80 miles, that would leave 320 miles @ 22 MPH charging - a long time.

Most people buying Tesla choose the 75 rather than the 100. The 75 has a summer range, at motorway speeds, of 200 miles. Knock off 20% for either February cold or torrential summer rain, so that's 160 miles, and then allow 20 miles "safety buffer" for detours etc and that's 140 miles.  So for anyone doing more than 140 miles in a day 2 or 3 days in a month then that's 10% of the time. For anyone who uses a Tesla for business I expect that a good proportion need that range on 10% of the days in the year, I know I do.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 10:12:05 PM by kristen » Logged
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