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Author Topic: 42%of coal generators run at a loss.  (Read 2984 times)
stannn
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« on: December 01, 2018, 01:01:52 PM »

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/11/30/some-42-of-the-worlds-coal-generators-run-at-a-loss/
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2018, 07:05:57 PM »

read about that yesterday ,  good  to  get that media coverage about it
from another article from the independant
Quote
"Matt Gray, head of power and utilities at Carbon Tracker, said their analysis “provides a blueprint for policymakers, investors and civil society”.

“Lobbying and cronyism, that’s the only thing that can save coal, and we are seeing that from Donald Trump and others throughout the world,” he told The Independent. "






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RIT
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2018, 12:07:36 AM »

LOL, I think everyone on this forum thinks that long-term use of coal is a very bad idea, but writing reports based on "revolutionary method to assess profitability" is not going to change much in the short term as businesses and governments operate via standard methods to assess profitability. Also comparing baseload coal providers against dynamic 'sunlight-driven' PV providers has just about zero value as they are very different markets.
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2018, 08:48:34 AM »

LOL, I think everyone on this forum thinks that long-term use of coal is a very bad idea, but writing reports based on "revolutionary method to assess profitability" is not going to change much in the short term as businesses and governments operate via standard methods to assess profitability. Also comparing baseload coal providers against dynamic 'sunlight-driven' PV providers has just about zero value as they are very different markets.

But it's so important to show to those with influence over the generation mix, that views such as "'sunlight-driven' PV providers has just about zero value as they are very different markets" are now archaic as we head into a world of cheaper RE and storage. Look at Indiana, switching from 65% coal generation today to 15% in 2023 and 0% in 2028 due to the savings they will make deploying RE and storage instead.

So it is extremely important to open up folks eyes to the fact that they are no longer very different markets, they are the same market, that can be 'attacked' from different directions, thanks to falling RE costs and rising technology solutions.
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2018, 08:49:39 AM »

In some shape or form they must be "profitable" or they would not be there. The UK ones are paid a retainer even if never used for "just in case" and then if used their marginal cost of production is profitable. As RIT says comparing despatchable coal to non despatchable PV is not very meaningful.

Ken
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2018, 02:57:44 PM »

When RE + storage is cheaper than coal, then it's extremely meaningful. Old tired claims to support FF's and nuclear in a world where the economics have turned against them, does none of us any good. It just makes for a very negative and backwards looking forum that's fails to see the positivity in news articles such as the one Stan posted.
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2018, 03:57:16 PM »

When RE + storage is cheaper than coal, then it's extremely meaningful. Old tired claims to support FF's and nuclear in a world where the economics have turned against them, does none of us any good. It just makes for a very negative and backwards looking forum that's fails to see the positivity in news articles such as the one Stan posted.

I don't contribute to the debates on this forum about the electricity supply, contacts, cfd's, profitability etc. The main reason is that I don't feel qualified or knowledgeable enough to do so. However, I do read every single post to try to learn and understand how it all works and then try to sort the "wheat from the chaff" so to speak.

Mart, you make many informative posts in this (and other) area(s) and as I said I read them all. I do find them helpful and informative. Several times in recent months you have posted that you feel that there is negativity on this forum and I can understand why you might think that from your position/point of view. But personally as a "neutral" looking in trying to learn/understand I don't see it, I see a healthy debate where there are a range of view points. There are too many areas in modern society where people get all their information from one source, (the Daily Mail for example! [other newspapers are available Smiley ) and won't see or read anything they disagree with or that gives an opposing point of view so they all end up singing the "same hymn from the same hymn sheet" and learn nothing. In my opinion it can and in many cases does lead to a very polarised public where nothing is properly debated or argued, instead it degenerates into a shouting match with neither side listening to the other. The Navitron Forum is one of the best forums that I follow in many ways - helpful, friendly, very well moderated, clear boundaries, but most of all frequented by a good bunch of people with a broadly common interest/goal but, best of all, a bunch of people with differing expertise, experience and viewpoints - all of which to my mind makes for healthy, interesting and mostly informative posts and "debates". As Beattie used to say "it's good to talk" - even if you don't always agree with what the other person is saying.

Roger
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2018, 04:49:13 PM »

And, in addition to what Marshman (Roger) says, we are getting there. Sometimes slowly, but coal generated electricity is getting less and less in many (not all) places. Nuclear commissioning is up and down but I guess, also less and less, Storage is becoming viable on a big scale....
Looking much better than when I started!
David
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RIT
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« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2018, 06:12:04 PM »

When RE + storage is cheaper than coal, then it's extremely meaningful. Old tired claims to support FF's and nuclear in a world where the economics have turned against them, does none of us any good. It just makes for a very negative and backwards looking forum that fails to see the positivity in news articles such as the one Stan posted.

The issue is that this report does not focus on RE + storage if you read the info on their website (link below). In fact, the report is not even just about RE vs coal as it also has gas as an alternative to coal. So they have replaced dispatchable coal with dispatchable gas. This is understandable when you read their mission goals as they are an 'independent' financial think tank with an aim of a 'route to a low carbon future'.

   https: //www.carbontracker.org/reports/coal-portal/

The report has also decided to group the whole of the EU as a single pot, so hiding just how bad the situation is in certain countries. Or for once just how good the UK is looking, which seems a shame to me.


A side issue is that the writers of this report seem to release a new report every year or so, saying much the same time. This is the Guardian's report from the start of the year regarding last year's report

   https: //www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/08/death-spiral-half-of-europes-coal-plants-are-losing-money

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A.L.
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2018, 08:04:22 PM »

hello,


I don't contribute to the debates on this forum about the electricity supply, contacts, cfd's, profitability etc. The main reason is that I don't feel qualified or knowledgeable enough to do so. However, I do read every single post to try to learn and understand how it all works and then try to sort the "wheat from the chaff" so to speak.

 The Navitron Forum is one of the best forums that I follow in many ways - helpful, friendly, very well moderated, clear boundaries, but most of all frequented by a good bunch of people with a broadly common interest/goal but, best of all, a bunch of people with differing expertise, experience and viewpoints - all of which to my mind makes for healthy, interesting and mostly informative posts and "debates". As Beattie used to say "it's good to talk" - even if you don't always agree with what the other person is saying.


me too - marshman +1
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« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2018, 08:10:33 PM »

+ another 1, Marshman
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« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2018, 07:50:14 AM »

When RE + storage is cheaper than coal, then it's extremely meaningful. Old tired claims to support FF's and nuclear in a world where the economics have turned against them, does none of us any good. It just makes for a very negative and backwards looking forum that's fails to see the positivity in news articles such as the one Stan posted.

I don't contribute to the debates on this forum about the electricity supply, contacts, cfd's, profitability etc. The main reason is that I don't feel qualified or knowledgeable enough to do so. However, I do read every single post to try to learn and understand how it all works and then try to sort the "wheat from the chaff" so to speak.

Mart, you make many informative posts in this (and other) area(s) and as I said I read them all. I do find them helpful and informative. Several times in recent months you have posted that you feel that there is negativity on this forum and I can understand why you might think that from your position/point of view. But personally as a "neutral" looking in trying to learn/understand I don't see it, I see a healthy debate where there are a range of view points. There are too many areas in modern society where people get all their information from one source, (the Daily Mail for example! [other newspapers are available Smiley ) and won't see or read anything they disagree with or that gives an opposing point of view so they all end up singing the "same hymn from the same hymn sheet" and learn nothing. In my opinion it can and in many cases does lead to a very polarised public where nothing is properly debated or argued, instead it degenerates into a shouting match with neither side listening to the other. The Navitron Forum is one of the best forums that I follow in many ways - helpful, friendly, very well moderated, clear boundaries, but most of all frequented by a good bunch of people with a broadly common interest/goal but, best of all, a bunch of people with differing expertise, experience and viewpoints - all of which to my mind makes for healthy, interesting and mostly informative posts and "debates". As Beattie used to say "it's good to talk" - even if you don't always agree with what the other person is saying.

Roger

Thanks, that's a great post. My feelings however remain the same, since I look back on positive debates and a site that had lots of comments each day, whereas now what I see is short threads often shutting down almost from the first post with broad negative statements such as consideration/comparison being meaningless.

On here we have an article on the economics of coal. As coal gets less economic, less will be deployed, and as per the article, more of the existing generation will become un-economic (money losing) and will shut down. That's a great thing.

Quote
According to the report, rising fuel costs and the falling cost of renewable generation mean solar power is not just cheaper than coal, but that a considerable proportion of coal generation capacity is running at a loss.

So what makes coal less economic, one thing is cheap gas in some countries, then we have the addition of externalities to the cost of coal (obviously the cost is already there, but it's not being paid by the generator, nor the consumer), and lastly we have RE.

To be more exact we have RE in the short term, RE + (RE + storage) in the medium term, and RE + storage in the long term.

Breaking this down even further we see that one component of RE + storage is PV. As PV gets cheaper so does RE and so does RE + storage.

Now going back, we have coal consumption/deployment being influenced by RE + storage, and RE + storage being influenced by PV.

So shutdown comments claiming that comparisons are not very meaningful, or have no value, do a discredit to any forum, but certainly to one about renewables. It not only ignores the big picture, but can choke of debate before it can lead to an appreciation of the bigger picture.


So we have threads, or perhaps I should say comments, supporting nuclear on economic grounds, without providing any economic info whatsoever*, we have storage threads shutdown due to posters obsessing on the chosen industry standard for reporting large scale supply side deployments, threads on any Elon related company** attracting openly hostile attacks (as the poster admits to having a 'thing' about the man), bio-energy discussions being left on the starting blocks due to there not being any spare grass in the UK!

*The last off-shore wind contracts will provide generation at one eighth the subsidy that HPC will get. Next year the government hopes to attract up to 3.2GW of capacity for £60m, that's half the generation of HPC for 1/750th of the subsidy (£60m/£45,000m).

**It's very difficult to mention Elon without attracting claims of 'Fanboi' but since his companies are leading so many innovations at the moment he's bound to get mentioned a lot (BEV's, methods of transport, RE generation and storage). But criticisms of EV's because they are expensive and long range, misses the point that the company is producing more BEV's than any other company in the world this year, and doing it profitably, thus creating a business model that can expand into smaller cheaper BEV's, a market requiring far higher production numbers to achieve profitability. We have the idea of new transport routes (underground) utilising cheaper drilling, and the innovative sale of 'the muck' as low priced bricks - but even these approaches draw criticism on the grounds that the tunneling industry is mature and Elon can't do it cheaper/better, and bricks can't be sold.

I too only want a friendly discussion on all these issues, but threads these days don't seem to attract carefully calculated and well set out pessimism of developments, instead I tend to see (or receive) short, blunt comments, with no analysis/breakdown, simply saying why something won't work, or why the issue/article is meaningless. Once threads receive comments like that, they tend to stop dead - that's my concern, the negativity tends to end the discussion, so we don't see the full story, nor the positive comments - though I appreciate that some posters do try, but I see less and less posts from them now.


Here's an idea, perhaps renewables were the underdog, a plucky fighter challenging the norm, and attracting so, so much positivity, debate, threads and posts each and every day. But now that they are becoming the winners, and dare I say 'the establishment', they are now fair game, attracting more criticism, which I feel should still be targeted against what they are displacing.
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« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2018, 09:52:10 AM »

Mart,

The simple requirement for PV and wind generated leccy is mass storage.  Neither are continuous supplies.  Tidal is about the only predictable renewable.

Even you seem to forget that actual wind generation is not nameplate rating.

We currently useup to about 45GW at times.  In the dark and not necessarily windy.  That amount of storage capacity, perhaps for days on end, is not practical, currently.  Other schemes, such as power transmission around the globe, need consideration.
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« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2018, 10:59:47 AM »

So shutdown comments claiming that comparisons are not very meaningful, or have no value, do a discredit to any forum, but certainly to one about renewables. It not only ignores the big picture, but can choke of debate before it can lead to an appreciation of the bigger picture.

As that comment I guess was made to me all I can do is recommend that you go and access the report as it is free if you create an account on their website. From here you can look at the detail they have included for the UK market.

Once you start to read the detail you will find that much of the underlying detail (at least for the UK) is far too general or incorrect to be of value, such as them using all the Paris agreement phase-out dates rather than the UK government's stated dates/plans. They make no mention of the current utilization of the stations (3GW at the time of writing), instead, they just focus on the total capacity (14GW). Their final claim for the UK is that all our current coal power stations are operating at a loss, this is an odd claim as all of them are run by private businesses, who are not known for their charitable acts.

The overall result for at least the UK marketplace is that the underlying numbers in the report are meaningless - so if anyone uses this report to try and justify any decision that decision will be challenged and no doubt delayed. Reports with bad information do "choke of debate before it can lead to an appreciation of the bigger picture", which is what you have claimed I have done by pointing out that this is a bad report that is not in a fit state to justify decisions.

It should also be noted that at no point is the word 'storage' used in the report. Instead, Wind and PV are just put head to head against coal with dispatchable gas talked about in the general text.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2018, 11:15:15 AM by RIT » Logged

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« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2018, 11:47:06 AM »

Mart,

The simple requirement for PV and wind generated leccy is mass storage.  Neither are continuous supplies.  Tidal is about the only predictable renewable.

Even you seem to forget that actual wind generation is not nameplate rating.

We currently useup to about 45GW at times.  In the dark and not necessarily windy.  That amount of storage capacity, perhaps for days on end, is not practical, currently.  Other schemes, such as power transmission around the globe, need consideration.

Why is it not practical , for example the  gas grid can take/store  month of gas  produced from  Wind and PV , Hydro  and Biomas
Hot water storage for heating  is a simple storage idea
Lots of ways to store  energy from renewables
that can be developped further in the time  while renewable installations should , have to grow fast
So no reason to stall  renewable addition  like its done in several european countries by conservative  governments ,  and that is a crime  in my opinion

when i see grapfs like this  and  the thread s wrtite up     and  recent articles  like this  https://corporateeurope.org/climate-and-energy/2018/11/coal-king-un-climate-talks-poland?fbclid=IwAR3JJ0UX2n3JZ-xDZjBQDCYq-40yzNGFvmxPC13tuGm19xIxx1bZruFq4YI    about the funding  from the coal lobby  of the UN climate talks in Poland

then i am wondering , how on earth  those fossil fuel friendly governments , will cope with the amount of people  dying  or on the run because of climate change , that will be and is the number one reason for  people have to leave the homes ....

Billi


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