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Author Topic: 42%of coal generators run at a loss.  (Read 2983 times)
brackwell
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« Reply #30 on: December 05, 2018, 08:23:20 AM »

well i for one are very optimistic about the way we are going both in the UK and the wider world.

Just in the UK in 5/6yrs,

We have gone from coal leccy production being 65% to just a few % and diappearing fast

We have increased renewables from a few % to 30% and clean energy to 50%+ and is still increasing

We have reduced our leccy demand significantly.

There is a transition to EVs

I dont see any gloom in that.

EVERYBODY on this forum is in favor of RE in all its guises and want to see more.

Where some have a problem is when they hear 100% RE mentioned particularly if they interpret this as 100% for every second 24/7 .  Their concerns may ease a little if they realised the Gov means NET 100% over the yr.  Their concerns will ease further if what is really meant we will try for net100% but fully accept that in a prolonged winter we will need to use gas,coal,etc.

We need EVERY form of leccy production and storage if we are to crack this and yes that includes peoples anti gas and nuclear in the next 10yrs at least. Rome was not built in a day

PS near me the next French Interconnector is coming ashore and they are now digging the chanel for it across Lee on Solent airport and the land infrastructure is well under way.

Ken
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biff
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« Reply #31 on: December 05, 2018, 09:09:58 AM »

Ah dear members
           Do not feel so despondent  and let down. We are all doing our best and will continue to do our best well into the future until this problem is righted. It is also the SADS time of year where we suffer from lack of sunshine and are getting depressed because of it.
    Every little counts.  We take a few knocks and bangs but we get up again and march on. RE is the greatest lift to  mankind. We do the best we can. We cannot possibly  think of everything  but at the same time we are not alone. Other countries  who we once scorned as mass polluters are now working  hard to  right the wrongs this is not some form of decoration.  This is absolute necessity. We are waking up. Ignore the orange faced quiff heads climate denying outbursts. He is only looking for attention. Certain US states like Texas almost leads the world in RE. Oil companies have been steadily investing heavily in all forms of fossil fuel free ambitions. Sir David is right we need to  get a move on but we are not beat yet.
          Biff
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 01:27:51 PM by biff » Logged

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kristen
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« Reply #32 on: December 05, 2018, 10:22:01 AM »

So what should I be saying to 99.9999% of my friends at Dinner Parties that are doing too little? My wife jokes that we don't get any invitations because I harangue my hosts!

I'm fed up with most of my rich Barsteward mates waiting for government subsidy before they act; using their Range Rovers for the school run - they, after all, could easily afford an additional Eco car for those journeys where it makes sense; I'm happy they keep their Range Rover for when they need to drive across a ploughed field.  Installing Biomass boilers only when they are paid a massive wedge ... and then deliberately not installing any metering so that their Tied Cottage occupants use it full tilt, with the windows wide open, to maximise the subsidy.  I kid you not ...

Discussion of Eco came up recently with my hairdresser. In response to "Us little people can't do anything" I replied that at the recent climate change talks a recommendation had been made to move Electricity supply to a Green vendor; because that would put pressure on the non-green-vendors. Simple thing, probably no cost involved, possible even a saving and all that Feel Good Factor to enjoy. Her husband (also a hair dresser there) piped up that they had already done that Smiley, and most of the other Punters (ear-wigging, obviously!) did too. Very heartening ... but not convinced that my Richard Barsteward mates have all done that ...

I need a list of action points to make sure that I am haranguing on every possible, but SENSIBLE, count please.
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dickster
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« Reply #33 on: December 05, 2018, 11:15:55 AM »

Don't give up,

Because of this forum and the Green Building ditto, we have built a reasonably eco friendly house, recycle our rain water for flushing and clothes washing, use logs to heat the whole house (and 2 x 47kg propanes for gas cooking/hot showers per year) and will have 2.3 kWp solar and Tesla 2 battery installed next week. Use 5 kWh per day, 500 litres of drinking water a week. Hopefully next car will be an EV.

It all costs money, but without the internet and forums, would never have had the confidence to do what we've done. Some of our friends think like us, some of our friends simply don't understand, but they're still our friends, the penny will drop, sooner or later.

Don't give up. Smiley
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brackwell
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« Reply #34 on: December 05, 2018, 11:51:00 AM »

Kristen,
Your friends by now probably have "got" what you are preaching but they and that kind of person do not like being told they have got it wrong and will defend their position accordingly. They particularly want to "keep up with the jones,s" and if that means a Range Rover so be it.  What they will find is that the Joneshave moved on and then they will also. People are very much like sheep with few having the ability to work things out for themselves and even fewer willing to put their hands up and say they have got it wrong. Stop the lecturing and keep the friends,if they are worth keeping, they will get there under their own steam.

They open the windows because they cannot control or know how to control the heating, it is not RHI payments as that is linked to the EPC rating of the property if not metered.

The ability of people to defend what they inwardly know to be suspect always amazes me.

Ken
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kristen
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« Reply #35 on: December 05, 2018, 12:17:04 PM »

Because of this forum ...

Yes, me too. Just gone back and looked at my posting history; back on 10-April-2007 I rocked up here asking for advice about Solar Thermal tubes based on a cold call I got from a local installer. My boiler was dying and I thought at the same time as replacing it I might put some Solar Thermal and a Thermal Store in.

I don't know at quite what point I thought that I might replace the dying boiler with Biomass, rather than a new Oil one ... but with encouragement from @lightfoot we stuck a 60KW Log batch boiler in and 5,000L of thermal store, with some solar thermal.



Since then we've added more Solar Thermal, PV and EV, and built a Passive House extension.  Battery is "soon" (some falling-dominoes involved in the timing), and I am planning on some more PV before the FITs run out.

I doubt that any of that would have happened without this forum, in particular getting the confidence to do it, and the ability to do it right-first-time.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 12:22:53 PM by kristen » Logged
kristen
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« Reply #36 on: December 05, 2018, 12:21:52 PM »

Your friends by now probably have "got" what you are preaching but they and that kind of person do not like being told they have got it wrong and will defend their position accordingly. They particularly want to "keep up with the jones,s" and if that means a Range Rover so be it

Yes, I do know those type of people, but that isn't the category I'd like to influence, its the ones who are being tardy for no good reason. They can afford it, they have no reason not to do it, they would definitely prefer to have/wait for Subsidy (I see that is being a stumbling block ... sadly) and they are extremely jealous of what I have achieved ... still doesn't galvanise them though!

They remain friends ... but I keep lecturing them. Intransigence is something this issue doesn't have time for.  Politicians are bad enough, grown, intelligent, people are something else.

Quote
They open the windows because they cannot control or know how to control the heating, it is not RHI payments as that is linked to the EPC rating of the property if not metered.

You may well be right, and I may have got the facts wrong, but they did tell me they were not installing metering because if tennants used less that would effect their payments Sad

So I'd like some new drums to able to bang pls Smiley
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M
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« Reply #37 on: December 05, 2018, 12:27:09 PM »

The ability of people to defend what they inwardly know to be suspect always amazes me.

Ken

Does that include those that support new nuclear, but never provide any information to support the economics now that RE is already the vastly cheaper option? Or fail to realise that as they both share the same subsidy pot nuclear spending directly impacts and restricts the earlier deployment of a greater volume of RE generation at a lower cost (120m v's 45,000m)?
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offthegridandy
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« Reply #38 on: December 05, 2018, 12:51:19 PM »

Hi Mart, I thought I'd pitch in before people start cutting their wrists and totally giving up.

Personally I find my self strangely optimistic.  Back in the 60's and 70's Joni Mitchell and others were trying to wake the world up, I didn't see any sign of progress and with the Cold War possibly imminent I did fear that we wouldn't see the millennium.  In those days I always had an emergency grab bag with water treatment tablets and a survival kit, included in it were a selection of seeds (simple corn, wheat etc). I figured if I survived "the event" there'd be no hand outs and to survive I'd need some kit. I used to replace the seeds every couple of years.

With the digital revolution. internet, massive computing power and a real understanding that action is needed now; plus a fresh generation of bright young people that care I still think we might not be too late. Of course the youngens will come up with daft ideas along the way, but you've got to have them to get to the real technology break through(s).

 I suspect that the solutions that will actually change societies direction are still filed under Science Fiction.  Wind, wave and solar are really old hat, all we've done so far is improve them to the point that they are economically viable. BUT the SUN delivers to us in 8 minutes enough power for the whole planet to run for 24 hrs.  To me a dream answer is to use that energy directly.  Perhaps solar PV panels in fixed orbit above and power transfer down to the planet surface. I did say Sci Fi!!  Putting things in orbit we can do now.  Energy transfer who knows, but it must be do-able.

The digital revolution has ramped up the pace of change for good and bad. Think back to the year 2000 and consider how much has changed in all directions that were unforeseen. All the vested interest in power and politics could be upset or overturned by a single break through as ideas and information can be shared so easily now. Imagine the revolution that would take place if basic energy was "free" Putin, Trump, Agri business, "et al" would be stuffed and left on the margins. But the social revolution could be massive and unpredictably painfull and a slower rate of change may be what suits best. That said, the rate at which (staid straight) British people seem ready to embrace new stuff i.e tablets and devices I do find suprising and encouraging.  I think one trick to encourage changes in direction is to find the correct levers, I rarely agree with direct government intervention in the markets as theoir track record is dubious but finding suitable vested interest to encourage changes of view point can be done.

So whilst I have no answers I do think that even now, close to the predicted tipping point on global warming the human race will avoid driving of the cliff.  So please M don't give up, we all choose our own path. You may have to kiss a lot of frogs before you find your princess but you are not alone and are making a difference. A lot of us "small people" making small changes does have a positive effect just perhaps not where we are looking; inside peoples heads.

Cheers.

Andy

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biff
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« Reply #39 on: December 05, 2018, 01:24:29 PM »

Excellent post Andy,
                        Smiley  Biff
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brackwell
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« Reply #40 on: December 05, 2018, 01:38:36 PM »


1) i do not know of anyone on this forum who supports nuclear to the exclusion of supporting more RE and storage

2) there are many ways of comparing business decisions and whilst cost may be one of them it is far from the only or most important one.

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billi
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« Reply #41 on: December 05, 2018, 01:41:17 PM »

when i read that

Quote
Key Insights at a Glance
1.
2.
3.
4.
Solar photovoltaics is already today a low-cost renewable energy technology.
Cost of power from large scale photovoltaic installations in Germany fell from over 40 ct/kWh in 2005 to
9ct/kWh in 2014. Even lower prices have been reported in sunnier regions of the world, since a major share
of cost components is traded on global markets.
Solar power will soon be the cheapest form of electricity in many regions of the world.
Even in conservative scenarios and assuming no major technological breakthroughs, an end to cost
reduction is not in sight. Depending on annual sunshine, power cost of 4-6 ct/kWh are expected by 2025,
reaching 2-4 ct/kWh by 2050 (conservative estimate).
Financial and regulatory environments will be key to reducing cost in the future.
Cost of hardware sourced from global markets will decrease irrespective of local conditions. However,
inadequate regulatory regimes may increase cost of power by up to 50 percent through higher cost of
finance. This may even overcompensate the effect of better local solar resources.
Most scenarios fundamentally underestimate the role of solar power in future energy systems.
Based on outdated cost estimates, most scenarios modeling future domestic, regional or global power
systems foresee only a small contribution of solar power. The results of our analysis indicate that a
fundamental review of cost-optimal power system pathways is necessary.

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/AgoraEnergiewende_Current_and_Future_Cost_of_PV_Feb2015_web.pdf


i have to say those  years here with sometimes  endless discusions   and  time elsewhere   i spent promoting PV ,  (sometimes hard to convince people when i had to pay about  4 Euro per watt  out of my pocket , when i started years back   )

I would say we are allowed to get a bottle of champange  out  to celebrate that massive sucsess  of Photovoltaic  (sure wind too)

Thanks to all you believers  and   as well some politicians and countries  too,  for installing Renewables even  at time,  subsidises where needed


Have a good new year  all

Slante

Billi

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MeatyFool
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« Reply #42 on: December 05, 2018, 02:03:58 PM »

Perhaps solar PV panels in fixed orbit above and power transfer down to the planet surface. I did say Sci Fi!!  Putting things in orbit we can do now.  Energy transfer who knows, but it must be do-able.

Yes, putting stuff into orbit would be a good idea.

Research has already been done regarding a solar shade. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade

This would reduce insolation so that the planet would cool thus mitigating the increases we are creating ourselves.

The further away it is the smaller I imagine it would need to be, but the cost of getting that much farther away is likely prohibitive.

I like the idea that we now have swarming drone software that should be able to cope with the miniature sail concept, with the drones using thrusters to line up just how they need to.

Meatyfool..
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M
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« Reply #43 on: December 05, 2018, 04:38:00 PM »


1) i do not know of anyone on this forum who supports nuclear to the exclusion of supporting more RE and storage

2) there are many ways of comparing business decisions and whilst cost may be one of them it is far from the only or most important one.



1. Nicely dodged.

2. Yes there are many ways, but to most people and politicians, cost is the main driver, so nuclear not being economic against RE and RE + storage, should put an end to support on that front. The only 'front' left in that particular battle.

Given that the other considerations, fear of nuclear, public support for RE v's nuclear, global economic collapse of nuclear viability/competitiveness (outside of China), nuclear subsidies preventing pro-rata a larger amount of RE generation being delivered, and nuclear funding delaying the arrival of FF displacing generation (RE is quicker to build, is delivered modularly (multiple farms), and individual farms come on line in a modular fashion too) ....... it seems there is no longer any business case whatsoever for nuclear anymore, a massive shift in just a few short years.

But as you say, and I agree 100% - "The ability of people to defend what they inwardly know to be suspect always amazes me." Although perhaps I would say support not defend, as to defend would require a counter argument, rather than just the dismissal of evidence.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 04:55:57 PM by M » Logged

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M
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« Reply #44 on: December 05, 2018, 04:55:29 PM »

Hi Mart, I thought I'd pitch in before people start cutting their wrists and totally giving up.

Cheers.

Andy

Hiya Andy and thanks for a great post, but just to be clear, I'm not giving up on my optimism for renewables, I suspect that's now a slam dump as growth/shifts won't happen linearly, but more likely exponential. A bit like the BEV example I gave, they are now being produced to a standard folk want, at a price that's affordable (don't laugh, I acknowledge they cost a fortune, but so long as TCO is lower, then that's comparatively affordable), with a range that's enough, with recharge speeds quick enough* to be acceptable. They are also of course, a step up in power, so no complaints there. From this point forward I suspect BEV sales will be supply limited, not demand limited, and people may even start to delay new purchases of ICE's in order to wait for BEV's. So that problem is pretty much sorted ..... just needs a dash of time.

* I recently heard a suggestion that seemed very reasonable to me, BEV's need to be able to charge 200 miles in 15mins. That's comparable to a sensible ICE break and leg stretch. That would require 50kWh in 15mins, so 200kW charge rate. Tesla's are already at 120kW, so not far away.

But I digress, I'm not giving up on RE, EV's and storage, and I will continue to fight the trolls, FUDsters and those 'JAQ'ing off' on other forums, but weirdly and ironically, I find it too tiring to do so on here when ancient arguments such as 'the wind doesn't always blow' has been addressed 1,000's of times with long lists of RE generation methods, battery storage, chemical storage, gas generators running on bio-methane or hydrogen, interconnectors etc etc etc.

Shouldn't we be passed imagining problems now, and instead enjoying all the articles Stannn posts explaining the multitude of solutions instead? I'm not joking, I take a trawl of news articles each day on multiple sites, and You-tube (an excellent source for what's happening) and anything we can think of that will hold back RE, EV's and storage is already being addressed in numerous ways. As Mulder and Scully might say - the truth is out there.
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