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Author Topic: New wind record this evening ?  (Read 4717 times)
Fintray
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« Reply #45 on: February 11, 2020, 04:37:24 PM »

Is it just me?

Posts before 'today' are showing as 17-1-20, and so on backwards, is today the 18th of January?

Could be that the 17th January was the last reply in this topic before the new ones today.
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marcus
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« Reply #46 on: February 11, 2020, 05:54:33 PM »

Quote
Insert Quote
Quote from: M on Today at 02:59:48 PM
Is it just me?

Posts before 'today' are showing as 17-1-20, and so on backwards, is today the 18th of January?

Could be that the 17th January was the last reply in this topic before the new ones today.

or it could be that 'M's point is that today is only 11th January?
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Countrypaul
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« Reply #47 on: February 11, 2020, 11:00:17 PM »

Why would he think today is the 11th January?
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M
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« Reply #48 on: February 12, 2020, 08:22:29 AM »

Why would he think today is the 11th January?

My mistake, I meant 17-2-2020, but now I'm wondering if I was reading 17-1-20 and thinking they were the recent conversation. Have to admit head is still spinning a bit, and jan to feb was a bit of a blur, and a cocktail of anti-biotics (still). Just ignore me, usually the best course of action.  Embarrassed
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Nickel2
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« Reply #49 on: February 12, 2020, 10:17:05 AM »

At 4:30 this morning Drax electric insights shows wind as 53.75% of total production. I think this may be the first time over half the nation's power has come from the wind. Just needs more storage now!
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dan_b
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« Reply #50 on: February 12, 2020, 10:41:35 AM »

What was the total generation at that point - it's been around the 13-16GW mark depending on whose figures for embedded generation you use/trust
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oliver90owner
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« Reply #51 on: February 12, 2020, 11:01:39 AM »

At 4:30 this morning Drax electric insights shows wind as 53.75% of total production. I think this may be the first time over half the nation's power has come from the wind. Just needs more storage now!

And twice as much wind generation?  Only then will alternative uses of renewable electricity become a sensible regular option (well, OK, a bit less than twice, maybe).
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dan_b
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« Reply #52 on: February 12, 2020, 12:34:56 PM »

UK offshore wind build out is continuing though, we're moving in the right direction, but you could probably argue correctly that the UK needs to go faster than this to meet the CO2 reduction/ net zero targets.

Commissioning this year

Hornsea One - 1200MW using 174 Siemens 7MW machines will be fully commissioned by Spring 2020
East Anglia One - 714MW using 102 Siemens 7MW machines will be fully commissioned by Autumn 2020


Near future offshore farms

Triton Knoll - 857MW using 90 MHI Vestas 9.5MW machines, foundations being planted now - should be fully commissioned by Summer 2021
Hornsea Two - 1386MW using 165 Siemens 8MW machines, onshore construction under way - should be fully commissioned by Summer 2022

Wait a while longer but confirmed -

Dogger Bank A - 1200MW using 100 GE Haliade X 12MW machines. CfD contract awarded, onshore construction started, offshore construction to start in in 2021. Commissioned by 2023
Dogger Bank B - 1200MW using 100 GE Haliade X 12MW machines. CfD contract awarded, offshore construction to start in in 2022. Commissioned by 2024
Dogger Bank Teeside - 1200MW - assume will also use the GE Haliade machines.  Commissioned by 2025.
Sofia (also at Dogger Bank!)  - 1400MW, turbines not confirmed yet, commissioned by 2025/26

Seagreen  (Scotland) - 1075MW using 114 MHI Vestas 9.5MW machines.  CfD contract awarded, planning consent awarded for onshore equipment - commissioned by 2025
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brackwell
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« Reply #53 on: February 13, 2020, 07:57:18 AM »

I think we need twice the present wind capacity to substitute the gas and 3 X  to also substitute the dying nuclear, last of the coal, EVs and to create enough surplus in the good times to create a NET zero.  !00GW must be the correct ball park?
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oliver90owner
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« Reply #54 on: February 13, 2020, 08:54:51 AM »

Even with 100 GW installed, with no appreciable wind, generation could amount to less than a GW, or so.
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dan_b
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« Reply #55 on: February 13, 2020, 09:23:06 AM »

Indeed - to meet net zero, the current plans for wind generation need to be massively accelerated in time and scale. And also as pointed out, a greater diversity of zero carbon generation source is required as well, both location and technology, plus storage at a grid and consumer level and inter-country interconnectivity.

The "Round 4" far offshore wind farm development process has already begun - Crown Estate has kicked off the consultation and tendering for 7GW of new offshore to be built after 2025.  We'll know by end of this year whose won those tenders and what their plans are and where.
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« Reply #56 on: February 14, 2020, 06:34:02 AM »

I think we need twice the present wind capacity to substitute the gas and 3 X  to also substitute the dying nuclear, last of the coal, EVs and to create enough surplus in the good times to create a NET zero.  !00GW must be the correct ball park?

Well, it does depend on how we heat our buildings, how deeply we insulate them, and how much industry survives our withdrawal from several hundred international agreements, but 100-500 GW of offshore wind capacity is the right range. That's still only a small fraction of the potential, but even the bottom end implies an installation rate of about 5 GW of new capacity per year.
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dan_b
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« Reply #57 on: February 14, 2020, 09:17:13 AM »

Which does unfortunately mean our current, world-leading build out of about 1.5GW/year is nowhere near fast enough  Shocked
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GarethC
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« Reply #58 on: February 17, 2020, 09:31:47 AM »

I'm sure Andrew won't mind me linking to his UK offshore wind power capacity factor page, which he's recently updated. Very interesting to see the performance of the newer farms in particular, and the upward trend in capacity factors.

https://energynumbers.info/uk-offshore-wind-capacity-factors

Also, Andrew, stop what you're doing and fix your generation page! I'm having to rely on grid watch's incomplete measurement! It just won't do.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2020, 09:34:41 AM by GarethC » Logged
azps
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« Reply #59 on: February 17, 2020, 06:59:33 PM »

Also, Andrew, stop what you're doing and fix your generation page! I'm having to rely on grid watch's incomplete measurement! It just won't do.

Ooh, it's broke. Huh. Lemme see.

ok, might work now.

Thanks for the heads-up!
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