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Author Topic: Calling time on plug-in hybrid cars.  (Read 1270 times)
M
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2019, 06:59:02 AM »

Yes, we have to talk reality, but also take the thread title into account, and realise we are talking about the future. So 5k s/h BEV's with more than 50 mile range will arrive, and the emissions of ICE cars will need to be taken into account too.

And even a 50 mile BEV will have next to no need to use charging stations for many owners, especially when they replace second cars in households, or for those only needing city runabouts, where ICE cars get appalling fuel economy.
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Just call me Mart.     Cardiff: 5.58kWp PV - (3.58kWp SE3500 + 2kWp SE2200 WNW)
brackwell
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« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2019, 08:23:36 AM »

RAB,
What you say is all true but you are fortunate in being able to do your own maintenance which is the real killer for old cars when the owner needs to use a garage. My daughter scrapped here little run around because it needed a new rad (not just repair) a job which you and i could have done at home and kept it running.  Then there is service cost say 200 and the usual rip of "you need new brake and disks sir".  The last time i had to take my car to a proper garage for a special job they came back with a whole list of ficticious jobs which i got them to cost -1200+ and if i had been their usual customer it would have been done.   And dont get me on engine management lights!

So your 700 car becomes an absolute money pit for the average pen pusher. Shame as it might be.

EVs are already here but the majority of people dont know it yet.  I have always had an ICE estate car it gets used once a week as that and i dont know how people live without one but perhaps thats the DIY in me.
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azps
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« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2019, 08:58:45 AM »

EVs are already here but the majority of people dont know it yet. 

^ this. BEVs have already won. It's just that the win is playing out over time. But that race is effectively over.

I have always had an ICE estate car it gets used once a week as that and i dont know how people live without one but perhaps thats the DIY in me.

I've never owned a car, and I've never driven. But do have a few decades of DIY behind me. I get big stuff delivered, small stuff I collect myself on foot or pushbike. I used to get a taxi once or twice a year or so for intermediate-sized stuff that would otherwise have silly delivery charges: but those occasions are very rare these days, as the courier market gets more efficient and more competitive.
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brackwell
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« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2019, 09:22:55 AM »

AZPS,
Good for you but last few weeks i moved in seperate trips,  2 ton of soil in a trailer, 2.5M sleepers inside and 3.6M on the roof (you have to collect or they will deliver cr.. ), a 5M packing case on the roof, Car FULL of cardboard, but i can do the sand and cement bags in the EV. which i use whenever i can and accounts for 90% of my journeys.
Then there is transporting 3 young grandchildren occasionally ( no EV takes 3 child seats in the back).  And i thought i was retired !

We all do our bit in different ways.

Ken
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djs63
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2019, 03:58:42 PM »

When I was a lad in Blackpool I went to school by tram, electric not horse drawn, and some were 50 years old then in the 1950s and are still going now. Lots of love and attention, no doubt, but I was told that electric motors went on and on. Is this likely to be true for EV motors? Could the motors outlive the batteries?
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HalcyonRichard
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2019, 07:13:09 PM »

When I was a lad in Blackpool I went to school by tram, electric not horse drawn, and some were 50 years old then in the 1950s and are still going now. Lots of love and attention, no doubt, but I was told that electric motors went on and on. Is this likely to be true for EV motors? Could the motors outlive the batteries?
Tesla are talking about the whole car lasting a million miles that includes battery and drive train.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/23/tesla-battery-million-miles-elon-musk/

Richard
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Laws are for the guidance of wise men and the obeyance of fools - Richard Burton upon Trent
Nickel2
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« Reply #21 on: June 15, 2019, 07:32:45 AM »

Well designed electric motors can last a long time in regular service. The British Rail 4-REP multiple units were introduced in 1966 and were the most powerful of their type. They lasted 26 years until withdrawal. Their electrical control gear and motors were refurbished and used in the new-build class 442 fast multiple unit trains. Those were then withdrawn in 2007. They are now being refurbished, but with modern more efficient motors and control-gear.
41 years service out of a motor isn't too bad; they still worked, but progress and energy efficiency caught up with them.
If cars ever cease to be a disposable fashion accessory and become a useful tool to be cared for and looked after, they will be built to last and only scrapped when totally knackered.
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Philip R
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« Reply #22 on: June 19, 2019, 03:28:53 PM »

Saw this in Greencarcongress.
Basically says that a hybrid is a better means of achieving CO2 reductions than pure BEV in a battery starved Market.
What Kristen said earlier in the thread.

Personally, I want a small lightweight engine, say 400 CC. Reduced friction, high BMEP, High efficiency. Be fine for most local driving on A roads and short motorway work.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/06/20190618-ea.html

Philip R
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kristen
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« Reply #23 on: June 21, 2019, 07:08:32 AM »

I wonder if the reason why the likes of e.g. BMW are ditching Hybrid is because they are confident that Battery Supply won't be limiting factor (in the lifetime of the production cycle for a new model).

Doesn't seem to be any sign of that ... yet ... and also news that e.g. Samsung have cut-back on what they can deliver, against the order that VW actually placed with them. But maybe all Auto Makers are privy to scale-up data from Battery makers, and new battery factories coming on stream are going to solve the problem sooner than we think?
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azps
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« Reply #24 on: June 21, 2019, 08:31:24 AM »

I wonder if the reason why the likes of e.g. BMW are ditching Hybrid is because they are confident that Battery Supply won't be limiting factor (in the lifetime of the production cycle for a new model).

Doesn't seem to be any sign of that ... yet ... and also news that e.g. Samsung have cut-back on what they can deliver, against the order that VW actually placed with them. But maybe all Auto Makers are privy to scale-up data from Battery makers, and new battery factories coming on stream are going to solve the problem sooner than we think?

Exactly that. And that's why the arguments for hybrids that rely on the battery supply chain being constricted forever, are spurious.

As the UK Energy Research Centre points out in its latest work, to meet our carbon targets, we have to ban sale of fossil cars and hybrids by 2030. (and preferably sooner)
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GarethC
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« Reply #25 on: June 21, 2019, 09:00:47 AM »

Given rate of progress with EVs, that really feels like it should be doable. Nissan leaf with 80 miles range for iirc 28k launched in 2011, while by 2021 similar cars with double that real world range expected to be widely available for about that price (so cheaper when inflation adjusted). Genuine 250 miles range (real tipping point to be popular with one car households) cars for circa 20k or less by 2030 doesn't feel impossible. Will need ongoing significant declines in battery costs, but that's what's happening.
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