navitron
 
Renewable Energy and Sustainability Forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: Anyone wishing to register as a new member on the forum is strongly recommended to use a "proper" email address. Following continuous spam/hack attempts on the forum, "disposable" email addresses like Gmail, Yahoo and Hotmail tend to be viewed with suspicion, and the application rejected if there is any doubt whatsoever
 
Recent Articles: Navitron Partners With Solax to Help Create A More Sustainable Future | Navitron Calls for Increased Carbon Footprint Reduction In Light of Earth Overshoot Day | A plea from The David School - Issue 18
   Home   Help Search Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: How will "episode 2" of covid affect public transport & personal transport?  (Read 717 times)
MR GUS
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3628


Officially "Awesome" because Frotter said so!


« on: September 14, 2020, 11:07:23 AM »

Will the scheme for e-scooters become a 18 month - 2 year free for all license whilst the government(s) address either a second bout of reduced / transport shutdown & the publics wariness to use it?

Those who may have car shared previously on commuter routes (car share lanes in the U.S. etc being unable to be used lest you break rules about mixing households,
 social distancing etc, ..I cite the U.S. on that one but for many young folk in the countryside bumming a lift to work was / is quite normal still.

 Is it worth buying a decent Xiaomi & weather-proofing it (seals etc) do you think things will get that bad that govt whilst not wanting to shut down will allow a temporary fix for e-scooters on roads  / paths where they are safer than busy roads in the countryside to keep things ticking over longer?

The useless mayor of Cambridge & Peterborough (a real tory stooge imho) is stating "use it or lose it" re public transport hereabouts which is already pretty dire, buses bar the college / school runs are very much empty, but pathways here are pretty much non existent.

If a xiaomi is around £379 (shorter range) to £529 for a pro version (longer range) then it is still cheaper than a half decent ebike, & easier to lug onto a bus for a two stage commute  compared to common restrictions that may result from a multi stage journey to a city on an ebike etc, not forgetting that cyclepaths allowing it may be possible to simply urban commute fold it,& carry it onto a train (or whatever) compared to how I have experienced an ebike on a train / simply not allowed on a bus.

First to say just cycle the entire way will be shot at dawn  Grin ..we are talking a mixed bag of theoretical people size & ability in the uk.
The govt are desperate to "keep the doors open" & many folk on furlough / zero hour contracts (criminal) are going to be hard up at the best of times potentially, so I envisage more turning to small & just about do-able that can be folded up, taken to an office & crammed under a desk for a charge to get home compared to an ebike then needing a £100 lock to keep it safe-ish.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 11:11:53 AM by MR GUS » Logged

Austroflamm stove & lot's of Lowe alpine fleeces, A "finger" of Solar Sad
Noli Timere Messorem
Screw FITS
Leaf Owner (1st gen)
+a shed full of solar panels
AndrewE
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 382


« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2020, 06:05:28 PM »

"Episode 2" could be very different if politicians (and other opinion-formers) had any spine.

Waiting for a vaccine that works, then acquiring it in enough quantity to protect us - let alone the world population - is a delusional waste of money.  I know a fortune has been spent (i.e. gambled) on a variety of vaccines which are not yet available, but that is as wise as the promise to blow a space-race sum of money on a testing system which also doesn't exist, and will cause another collapse of society/the economy when the chain reaction of its false positives ricochet through the country.

The current policies lock us into a never-ending  cycle of lock-downs.

See https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/13/a-way-to-control-covid-19-for-now/  for a more realistic approach.
So my answer to the original question would be "not at all - public transport  should be back to normal, apart from the temporary absence of us old crusties!"
A
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 06:14:54 PM by AndrewE » Logged
MR GUS
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3628


Officially "Awesome" because Frotter said so!


« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2020, 06:49:49 PM »

I'm wondering what degree of city based commuting crusties are not wanting to hit the tubes (neither underground nor intubated courtesy of the NHS) for the forseeable, & would consider running the wrath of plod & points et al to ride an e-scooter (albeit sensibly).

early xmas presents getting bought in an attempt to get to work I think, just wish govt would state with finality on this subject rather than merely leave it hanging as "trial areas".

Bike sales are up, anyone got details of the alleged bike repair contribution?
Logged

Austroflamm stove & lot's of Lowe alpine fleeces, A "finger" of Solar Sad
Noli Timere Messorem
Screw FITS
Leaf Owner (1st gen)
+a shed full of solar panels
AndrewE
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 382


« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2020, 07:11:06 PM »

I'm wondering what degree of city based commuting crusties are not wanting to hit the tubes (neither underground nor intubated courtesy of the NHS) for the forseeable, & would consider running the wrath of plod & points et al to ride an e-scooter (albeit sensibly).

early xmas presents getting bought in an attempt to get to work I think, just wish govt would state with finality on this subject rather than merely leave it hanging as "trial areas".

Bike sales are up, anyone got details of the alleged bike repair contribution?
It is a bit of a long read... I think his idea is that crusties would be locked down temporarily (which wouldn't stop those still working from working from home, just protect them while we get the virus over and done with. Those unable to work because of being locked down should be compensated, of course.)
When the virus has afflicted all the younger ones (actually just those who haven't had it already) then it won't be circulating any more and the oldies can come out to play again.
This policy is worse for those of us who are convinced we have already had it though...  I could probably live with a month lockdown, but it would need to be while the weather is fine.  Not when cold dark November or December has come though.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 09:44:19 PM by AndrewE » Logged
djs63
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 367


« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2020, 11:07:06 AM »

To reach “herd immunity” the percentage of the population to be immune is variously stated to be between 39% and 80% or even more, meanwhile we may reach 250,000 deaths according to government figures if we just let nature take its course. If we go for herd immunity without a vaccine lots of older and BAME people are bound to be very ill or worse.

So buses, e-scooters whatever are the least of our worries. Just persevere with masks, social distancing and hand washing until it fizzles out. BUT a second spike will come if we carry on as now unless a vaccine arrives very soon.

Meanwhile, home working and extreme vigilance in the workplace and very little socialising must be the norm for now.
Logged

6 Kw Proven wind turbine, 15 Navitron evacuated solar hot water tube array and 1.8 Kw PV, grid connected (SMA inverters) and GSHP supplying radiators and UFH. Wood burning stove (Esse 300) and oil fired Rayburn. Rainwater harvesting 4000 litre tank underground. Nissan Leaf
AndrewE
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 382


« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2020, 04:21:11 PM »

If you actually read Malcolm Kendrick's blog you will find that the "government fugures" are hot air, (propaganda to keep us subservient in my view.)
He shows that it isn't anywhere near a universally fatal disease, and proposes locking down those vulnerable to it while nursing the rest through it in about a month.
Currently there doesn't seem to be any other exit strategy, save hoping for a vacccine in a year or two - if we can still afford it by then - and testing (which doesn't prevent people catching it anyway.)
Logged
azps
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 882



WWW
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2020, 04:54:38 PM »

If you actually read Malcolm Kendrick's blog

Kendrick is a GP with no specialisation in virology or immunology. He's involved with the Institute for Natural Healing, a crank organisation which says that cancer patients should buy their evidence-free "nature cures" https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Malcolm_Kendrick

The proto-eugenicist path, of just letting covid kill 250,000-500,000 people, because most of them will be retired or have pre-existing health conditions which weakens them, doesn't account for the similar number (similar-ish - we still don't have a lot of evidence here) of previously healthy people who end up with medium- to long-term morbidity (including one of our number here who got myocarditis).
Logged

AndrewE
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 382


« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2020, 06:34:42 PM »

Unfortunately that "crank organisation" smear comes up first on Google: it's an establishment/anti-outsider copy of Wikipedia, which I would have thought people here would be automatically suspicious of.  In fact I had exactly this discussion with a friend who picked up that same reference too.

He is actually a GP who who hasn't forgotten his scientific training and who reads scientific papers critically, points out the flaws in them and often puts up a more rational explanation of research findings.  If you go back through his blogs you will find a lot of analytical thinking (even common sense.)  Are you aware of the medics whose careers were almost finished by suggesting that stomach ulcers were caused by bacteria?  One of them eventually got the Nobel prize for it.

You obviously didn't read the article - or my posts - because he doesn't suggest allowing 250 000 to die.  He suggests locking down to protect the vulnerable until the infection has burnt itself out.

Here's a bit of what he actually said:

Quote
In essence, we know that COVID19 is a disease that is both significant and deadly in the elderly population. Particularly the elderly population with underlying medical conditions. For those of working age – who are otherwise healthy – COVID19 is far less serious. The risk appears to be lower than for influenza. In children, and those under forty, the risk is almost non-existent.

Therefore, it is relatively straightforward to identify pretty accurately those who we need to help protect from COVID19, and those who we do not.

On this basis I am going to recommend that the best way to protect the vulnerable elderly is to build up immunity in the younger population, in order to stop the spread throughout the whole community. If eighty per cent of the population under seventy were to get infected, this would stop transmission in its tracks, and COVID19 would be gone.

However, what we are doing currently is to lockdown ever more tightly to stop the spread. Whether or not this is working is unclear. However, let us assume that it is doing so. Then, I would argue that we are doing precisely the wrong thing at precisely the wrong time.
Logged
azps
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 882



WWW
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2020, 10:40:51 AM »

Unfortunately that "crank organisation" smear comes up first on Google: it's an establishment/anti-outsider copy of Wikipedia

It's not a copy of wikipedia. It uses the same or similar software behind it, but it's a completely different site, and authored completely differently. It exists specifically to expose pseudo-science, which is what Kendrick is peddling. It's anti-outsider when those outsiders are cranks: homeopaths, psychics, creationists.

Sadly, we don't know if herd immunity will work with the evolving SARS-Cov-2: we know that reinfection is possible, as there are verified cases now; but we don't yet know how infectious those reinfected people are.
Logged

AndrewE
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 382


« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2020, 07:48:57 PM »

Unfortunately "pseudo-science" is another cheap and easy jibe to discredit people who point out that the emperor has no clothes. He certainly is not "a homeopath, psychic, or creationist!"
Have you got any "specialisation in virology or immunology?"  Are you even a biologist of any kind?  If not, what right have you got to abuse him or his interpretation of research papers?  

One can be a professional of several or many sorts to understand public health quite well, and being a GP who reads and thinks about research papers probably makes him one of the best-informed commentators today.  What's your speciality? Do tell us...  
(and by the way, at least some of the supposed "re-infections" are "positives" on asyptomatic people by a test which is not diagnostic!  I suggest that you read the Belgian medics' letter linked below, and then https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/ (if you hadn't bothered before.)  If you haven't read them your comments are worthless and based only on prejudice.

 It's clear (to open-minded people) that the establishment isn't always on the side of the angels.  You should get to your local library and read what the latest Private Eye says (No 1530 p. 41) about
Quote
the cosy relations between the then [UK?] Chief Medical Officer Dr William Inman and Primodos's manufacturer Schering...  In January 1995, Inman found that women who took Primados were five times likelier to give birth to a malformed child.  Instead of making the research public and taking the drug off the market he privately advised Schering to cover its back ("take measures  to avoid medico-legal problems")  He also confided that he was destroying the evidence on which his result was based.
 
Have you actually read any of Malcolm Kendrick's posts?  I suggest that you do, then quote (real) references that undermine his logic.
Try reading this, for example: https://docs4opendebate.be/en/open-letter/  ...but perhaps the Belgian Medics are all deluded conspiracy theorists too.

The present policies are working really well, aren't they?   How do you suggest we make progress?

Some people have always said that the current policies are doomed to failure!  Have you listened to what Prof Spiegelhalter has said on R4 on the today programme? (twice now.)  He's obviously not just some deluded GP out in the sticks...

Constructive replies are welcome, but please don't waste our time with knee-jerk abuse!
A
« Last Edit: September 19, 2020, 08:16:35 PM by AndrewE » Logged
Bugtownboy
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 24


« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2020, 08:30:55 PM »

https://docs4opendebate.be/en/open-letter/


I would say, read the letter again. He also mixes terminology, ‘rates’ and minimises ‘severe flu year’. In a ‘severe flu year’ excess deaths in the U.K. (over the whole flu season, circa 6 months) will be approaching 50000.

In terms of SARS2-CoV-19, the excess deaths occurred over a 1.5-2 month period; there is, probably, no developed ‘community’ immunity gained through years of exposure or vaccination.

There is a real and present danger that the virus will cause a catastrophic death toll and/or leave a legacy of lasting chronic inflammatory, auto-immune, ME/CFS type syndromes - particularly in the previously healthy (young).

This is not a rant, as seemingly is Dr McKenzie’s, but the concern of someone with a 40+ year experience in pathology.

Yes, we do not fully understand this novel virus, I do believe, though, we should manage this situation with caution without the pressure of ‘politics’ driving clinical sense.
Logged
desperate
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 3545


Backache stuff!!


WWW
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2020, 09:51:44 PM »

Hear hear BTB,

It seems to be insanely risky to carry out a strategy as Kendrick advocates, in fact we experienced something similar back in March and April by leaving our lockdown too late. We all saw how close some hospital trusts came to being overwhelmed by the case loads, some did in fact declare a major incident. We saw a doubling of cases every three days or so and some time later a huge increase in demand for ICU beds and ventilators, some hospitals oxygen systems could not supply the required volumes and even BOC struggled to supply enough. Kendrik says we should let the virus run through the population naturally and that we should look after those that need it whilst protecting the vulnerable, given that if we do that the numbers are very likely to be much larger, where is the evidence that we could cope? Who's going to do the looking after?

I have seen articles that suggest less than 10% of us have had the virus, and that for herd immunity we need about 75% of us to have had it, that still leaves a very large population at risk, and to claim that "for those under 40 the risk is almost non existent" is patently rubbish. I personally know three people in their twenties and thirties who have had it and in all cases pretty badly, also we are on the point of self isolation as there are cases at our sons school. Am I unique in this respect? I hardly think so.

It is obvious that there is no easy answer but to throw caution to the wind is to guarantee failure, it would easily lead to several million cases in rapid order who need looking after medically as well as all the other disruption in essential services that we saw before. At least a softly softly approach buys us time, yes it extends the time we are having to deal with the illness but as in the last couple of months the NHS was able to carry out most of its other workload, so that's not such a disadvantage.



Desp
Logged

www.jandhbuilders.co.uk

still a crazy old duffer!
Countrypaul
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 1795


« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2020, 10:06:27 PM »

One problem that is easily overlooked when talking of herd immunity is that we have little idea of how long immunity will last (if at all) after becoming infected then recovering and whether herd imunity will even work as a result.  This is also one issue that may affect vaccines, in that they not give any long term immunity, we just don't know yet.
Logged
djs63
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 367


« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2020, 08:35:05 AM »

Countrypaul is right, how long does immunity last? Unknown! After all we have a flu vaccination every year ‘cos of slight changes in the virus. Will he sane happen with covid? Does the relationship between MERS, SARS and covid indicate a slower rate of change?

Very small numbers of reinfections may indicate immunity lasts for months at least..... But it is a dangerous and often awful disease.

Minimising risk by social distancing, hand washing and masks where necessary seem to be all we ordinary folk can do at the moment..

We have just had notification of the seasonal flu jab at the GP. Last year we couldn’t move in the surgery with hundreds waiting in the building. This year we are asked to turn up by appointment with sleeve rolled up outside the door. Perhaps we walk past a Perspex screen with a hole in it, press arm to hole, jabbed thro’ hole! Who knows. Strange times.
Logged

6 Kw Proven wind turbine, 15 Navitron evacuated solar hot water tube array and 1.8 Kw PV, grid connected (SMA inverters) and GSHP supplying radiators and UFH. Wood burning stove (Esse 300) and oil fired Rayburn. Rainwater harvesting 4000 litre tank underground. Nissan Leaf
Bugtownboy
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 24


« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2020, 09:10:43 AM »

Think there’s an important point - flu is a nasty illness - I’d encourage everyone to get vaccinated this year. Not sure what the national policy is, but our Surgery is offering a ‘free’ vaccine to anyone over the age of 50.

Don’t think it’d be nice to have flu and C19 at the same time !
Logged
Pages: [1] 2   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines
SMFAds for Free Forums
Simple Audio Video Embedder
Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!